# The Fourth Turning *Published December 1997 by Broadway Books. ~400 pages. Authors: William Strauss (d. 2007) and Neil Howe. Sequel to their 1991 book "Generations." The book that gave [[Steve Bannon]] his theory of history and his conviction that the Trump era would be a period of civilizational crisis and rebirth.* A theory of Anglo-American history as an 80-year cycle of four generational "turnings" — each lasting roughly 20 years — that culminate in a great crisis (the "Fourth Turning") in which the old order is destroyed and a new one is born. The [[American Revolution]], the [[American Civil War]], the Depression/WWII, and (the book predicted) a crisis beginning around 2005 constituted the four great crises. Strauss and Howe predicted that the coming Fourth Turning would be triggered by some combination of terrorism, financial collapse, and federal-state conflict. The book is not widely taught in universities or taken seriously by academic historians. Its influence comes almost entirely from one reader: [[Steve Bannon]], who made it the intellectual framework of his political career and, through Bannon, the implicit operating theory of the Trump movement's crisis politics. ## The Theory ### The Four Turnings Strauss and Howe argue that Anglo-American history follows an 80-year cycle: | Turning | Name | Character | Duration | |---|---|---|---| | **First** | The High | Institutional confidence; conformity; rebuilding after crisis | ~20 years | | **Second** | The Awakening | Spiritual and cultural upheaval; individualism challenges institutions | ~20 years | | **Third** | The Unraveling | Institutions weaken; individualism peaks; culture wars; cynicism | ~20 years | | **Fourth** | The Crisis | Existential threat; institutions destroyed and rebuilt; total war or revolution | ~20 years | ### The American Cycle | Fourth Turning | Crisis | Dates | Resolution | |---|---|---|---| | 1st | American Revolution | ~1773–1794 | Independence; Constitution | | 2nd | Civil War | ~1860–1865 | Union preserved; slavery abolished | | 3rd | Depression / WWII | ~1929–1946 | [[New Deal]]; Allied victory; American hegemony | | 4th | (Predicted) | ~2005–2025 | TBD | The book identified potential triggers for the Fourth Turning: a terrorist attack on American soil, a global financial crisis, a federal-state constitutional showdown. September 11, 2001 (four years after publication) and the 2008 financial crisis both appeared to validate the prediction — which is precisely what gave the theory its hold on Bannon. ### The Generational Archetypes Each turning produces a generation with a distinct character: - **Prophet** (born during a High): moralistic, visionary, leading during the Crisis (Boomers) - **Nomad** (born during an Awakening): pragmatic, alienated, managing the Crisis (Gen X) - **Hero** (born during an Unraveling): civic-minded, team-oriented, fighting the Crisis (Millennials) - **Artist** (born during a Crisis): overprotected, adaptive, rebuilding after (Gen Z and beyond) ## The Bannon Connection Bannon's engagement with *The Fourth Turning* is not casual — it is the foundation of his political strategy: **2009:** Bannon interviews Neil Howe while making *Generation Zero*, a documentary about the 2008 financial crisis. Bannon uses the Fourth Turning framework to argue that the crisis is not merely financial but civilizational — the beginning of the end of the old order. **2010–2016:** At [[Breitbart News]], Bannon operates with the explicit belief that America is in a Fourth Turning. This conviction shapes everything: the apocalyptic tone of Breitbart's coverage, the framing of immigration as civilizational threat, the willingness to burn institutional norms. If the old order is dying anyway, then accelerating its destruction is historically productive. **2017:** As Trump's chief strategist, Bannon brings Fourth Turning logic into the White House. His policy framework — "deconstruction of the administrative state" — is the Fourth Turning thesis applied to governance: the old institutions must be destroyed so new ones can be built. Trump is, in Bannon's framework, the crisis president whose role is demolition, not construction. **The self-fulfilling prophecy problem:** If you believe civilization is entering an inevitable crisis, and you gain political power, you have every incentive to *cause* the crisis — because in your framework, the crisis is necessary for renewal. Bannon's governance philosophy is essentially: the sooner we break the old order, the sooner we can build the new one. ## Intellectual Problems Academic historians have largely rejected Strauss-Howe theory: **Cherry-picking:** The 80-year cycle only works if you select specific events and ignore others. The theory requires treating the American Revolution, Civil War, and WWII as structurally identical phenomena, which is historically dubious. **Unfalsifiability:** Any major event can be retroactively classified as a "turning." If nothing dramatic happens, the theorists can claim the turning was subtle. If something dramatic happens, it validates the theory. There is no possible evidence that could disprove it. **Determinism:** The theory implies that generational character is fixed by birth timing, which contradicts virtually everything known about human development, class, race, and individual variation. **But none of this matters for the KB** — what matters is that the most influential political strategist of the Trump era believed it completely and acted accordingly. ## KB Significance 1. **It is Steve Bannon's operating system.** Every Bannon action documented in this KB — the "deconstruction of the administrative state," the apocalyptic framing of immigration, the willingness to burn norms — follows from Fourth Turning logic. The theory explains why Bannon treats institutional destruction as historically productive rather than irresponsible. 2. **It provides the crisis-politics template** that [[the New Right]] has adopted permanently. The [[The Flight 93 Election]] essay is Fourth Turning logic applied to a single election: we are in a crisis; normal politics is inadequate; extraordinary action is required. Once this frame is adopted, it cannot be withdrawn — every election becomes existential, every compromise becomes surrender. 3. **The self-fulfilling prophecy dynamic** is central to understanding MAGA governance: if you believe crisis is inevitable and necessary, you govern to accelerate it. This is not conspiracy — it is the documented operating theory of the movement's chief strategist. 4. **It connects the populist right to the tech right** through a shared framework of cyclical destruction and renewal. The tech right's "creative destruction" (Schumpeter via Thiel) and Bannon's "Fourth Turning" are structurally identical arguments: the old order must be destroyed for the new order to emerge. The alliance documented in [[The Unholy Alliance]] is partially held together by this shared conviction. ## See Also - [[Steve Bannon]] — The book's most consequential reader - [[Donald Trump]] — The crisis president in Bannon's framework - [[The Flight 93 Election]] — Crisis politics applied to a single election - [[MAGA]] — The political movement shaped by Fourth Turning logic - [[Breitbart News]] — The media operation Bannon ran with Fourth Turning as operating theory - [[The Unholy Alliance]] — The coalition held together partly by shared crisis conviction