# Ukraine War Timeline Russia's war on Ukraine did not begin on February 24, 2022. It began in **February 2014**, when Russian troops without insignia seized the Crimean parliament, and it never stopped: eight years of war in the Donbas, frozen but not ended by the [[Minsk Agreements]], preceded the full-scale invasion. Dating the war from 2022 is a Western habit, and it erases the years in which the terms of every later peace proposal were first written — including the one that [[Konstantin Kilimnik]] carried to [[Paul Manafort]] while Manafort was running [[Donald Trump]]'s 2016 campaign, the [[Mariupol Plan]]. This timeline runs from the Euromaidan revolution (November 2013) to **September 30, 2026**. > [!info] How this page fits with its neighbours > - [[Russo-Ukrainian War]] is the analytic event page: what the war is and why it matters. This page is the chronology. > - [[Ukrainian History Hub]] owns everything before 2013 — Kyivan Rus', the [[Holodomor]], [[Ukrainian Independence]], the [[Budapest Memorandum]], the [[Orange Revolution (2004)]]. > - [[Trump-Putin Calls Timeline]] owns call-by-call detail for 2025–26. [[Trump-Russia Arc Timeline]] owns the 1987–2025 investigative arc. > - Lines marked **US ▸** are the American political thread running through the war — useful for reading how the U.S. right's Ukraine position evolved. ## At a Glance | Era | Dates | What changed | |---|---|---| | I. Revolution and seizure | Nov 2013 – Mar 2014 | Yanukovych falls; Russia takes Crimea | | II. The Donbas war | Apr 2014 – Feb 2015 | Russian-run proxy war; MH17; Russian regulars; Minsk I and II | | III. The frozen war and the American channel | 2015 – 2018 | Ceasefire that isn't; Manafort, the RNC platform, the Mariupol Plan; Javelins; Kerch | | IV. Impeachment and buildup | 2019 – Feb 2022 | Zelensky elected; Trump's aid hold; Putin's essay; the ultimatum | | V. Full-scale invasion | Feb – Dec 2022 | Kyiv holds; Bucha; Mariupol falls; Kharkiv and Kherson retaken; annexations | | VI. Attrition | 2023 | Bakhmut; failed counteroffensive; Wagner mutiny; "stalemate" | | VII. The long grind | 2024 | U.S. aid stalls six months; Avdiivka; Kursk incursion; North Korean troops | | VIII. The deal track | 2025 | Trump–Putin channel; Oval Office blowup; Anchorage; the 28-point plan | | IX. Talks, Iran and a frozen front | Jan – Sept 2026 | Trilateral talks, then paused by the Iran war; command shakeup; stalled diplomacy | --- ## Era I — Revolution and Seizure (November 2013 – March 2014) - **Nov 21, 2013** — [[Viktor Yanukovych]]'s government suspends preparations to sign the Association Agreement with the [[European Union]], under pressure from Moscow. Protests begin on Kyiv's Maidan — the start of [[Euromaidan]]. - **Nov 30, 2013** — Riot police beat student protesters; the crowds swell. - **Feb 18–20, 2014** — The deadliest days of the revolution: security forces, including snipers, kill protesters in central Kyiv. More than 100 people die over the course of the revolution. - **Feb 21–22, 2014** — Yanukovych flees Kyiv on the night of Feb 21. On **Feb 22** the Rada votes to remove him. **US ▸** His political makeover man for the previous decade was [[Paul Manafort]] — see [[Paul Manafort Ukraine Operations]]. - **Feb 26–27, 2014** — Unmarked Russian troops move in Crimea. In the early hours of **Feb 27**, armed men seize the Crimean parliament and government buildings and raise the Russian flag. The "little green men" phase of [[Hybrid Warfare]] begins. - **Mar 1, 2014** — Russia's Federation Council authorizes [[Vladimir Putin]] to use force in Ukraine. - **Mar 16, 2014** — Crimea's "referendum" on joining Russia, held under occupation. Officials claim 96.77% in favor in the Autonomous Republic (about 95.5% including Sevastopol). - **Mar 18, 2014** — Putin signs the treaty annexing Crimea — the first forcible change of European borders since 1945. See [[Annexation of Crimea]]. It violates the 1994 [[Budapest Memorandum]], under which Russia had promised to respect Ukraine's borders in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons. - **Mar 21, 2014** — Ukraine signs the political chapters of the EU Association Agreement. - **Mar 27, 2014** — UN General Assembly Resolution 68/262 affirms Ukraine's territorial integrity, 100–11 with 58 abstentions. - Crimea's [[Crimean Tatars]], deported by Stalin in 1944, again come under Moscow's rule and face renewed persecution. ## Era II — The Donbas War (April 2014 – February 2015) - **Apr 6–7, 2014** — Pro-Russian armed groups seize government and security buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. The "Donetsk People's Republic" is proclaimed on **Apr 7**. - **Apr 12, 2014** — Former Russian FSB officer Igor Girkin ("Strelkov") and 52 armed men seize Sloviansk. The [[Donbas War (2014-2022)]] begins. - **Apr 14, 2014** — Acting president Oleksandr Turchynov decrees an "Anti-Terrorist Operation." - **May 2, 2014** — Clashes in Odesa end in a fire at the Trade Unions House; 48 people die (42 in the building, 6 in street fighting). - **May 11, 2014** — Separatist "referendums" in Donetsk and Luhansk. - **May 25, 2014** — [[Petro Poroshenko]] wins the presidency outright with 55.46%. - **Jun 27, 2014** — Ukraine signs the economic part of the EU Association Agreement — the deal whose suspension started the revolution. - **Jul 5, 2014** — Ukrainian forces retake Sloviansk. - **Jul 17, 2014** — [[Malaysia Airlines Flight 17]] is shot down over separatist-held territory by a Russian Buk missile; all 298 aboard die. Investigators later trace the launcher to Russia's 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade. - **Aug 24, 2014** — Regular Russian army units are first seen crossing in force (a 250-vehicle column near Amvrosiivka) as Ukraine's summer offensive nears the border. - **Aug 24–29, 2014** — Encirclement at Ilovaisk. On **Aug 29** a Ukrainian column leaving by a promised "green corridor" is fired on. Official toll 366 dead; a parliamentary commission put it at up to about 1,000. - **Sept 5, 2014** — The Minsk Protocol: a 12-point ceasefire signed by Ukraine, Russia, the separatists and the OSCE. It does not hold. - **Jan 21, 2015** — Ukraine withdraws from the ruins of Donetsk airport's terminals after months of fighting. - **Feb 12, 2015** — Minsk II, the "Package of Measures," is signed by the Trilateral Contact Group; the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France back it in a separate declaration. Ukraine would regain its border only *after* "special status" and local elections in the occupied districts — the design flaw that shapes every later peace plan. See [[Minsk Agreements]]. - **Feb 18, 2015** — Three days into the "ceasefire," Ukraine withdraws from Debaltseve. ## Era III — The Frozen War and the American Channel (2015 – 2018) The front line hardens. Fighting never stops, but it rarely moves. The action shifts to Washington. - **Late March 2016** — **US ▸** The Trump campaign hires [[Paul Manafort]], who offers to work unpaid, as convention manager. He becomes campaign chairman that spring. - **Jul 11, 2016** — **US ▸** In the Republican platform's national-security subcommittee in Cleveland, a delegate's proposal to commit to "providing lethal defensive weapons" to Ukraine is changed to "appropriate assistance" after Trump campaign staff led by [[J.D. Gordon]] intervene. See [[2016 Republican Platform Ukraine Amendment]]. Mueller later found the investigation "did not establish" that it was done "at the behest of candidate Trump or Russia." - **Jul 18–21, 2016** — **US ▸** The Republican convention nominates Trump ([[Trump 2016 Nomination]]). - **Jul 29, 2016** — **US ▸** [[Konstantin Kilimnik]], Manafort's longtime Kyiv deputy, emails him: "I met today with the guy who gave you your biggest black caviar jar several years ago." - **Jul 31, 2016** — **US ▸** On *Meet the Press* Manafort denies any role in the platform change: "I didn't even hear about it until after our convention was over." - **Aug 2, 2016** — **US ▸ The Mariupol Plan.** Manafort, Kilimnik and [[Rick Gates]] meet at a Manhattan cigar club. Kilimnik delivers a plan to create an autonomous republic in the Donbas with Yanukovych at its head — a plan Manafort later admitted to prosecutors was a "backdoor" way for Russia to control part of eastern Ukraine. Manafort shares internal campaign polling data. "Both men believed the plan would require candidate Trump's assent to succeed." See [[Mariupol Plan]]. - **Aug 14, 2016** — **US ▸** The *New York Times* reports the "black ledger" of the Party of Regions listing $12.7 million in undisclosed cash payments earmarked for Manafort. - **Aug 19, 2016** — **US ▸** Manafort resigns from the campaign. - **Sept 28, 2016** — The Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team reports that MH17's Buk launcher was brought in from Russia and taken back afterward. - **Dec 8, 2016** — **US ▸** Kilimnik writes to Manafort that "Russians at the very top level are in principle not against this plan," and that all it needs is "a very minor 'wink' (or slight push) from DT." - **Jan 2017** — **US ▸** Kilimnik comes to Washington around the inauguration and meets Manafort. - **Jan–Feb 2017** — **US ▸** A parallel backchannel: Ukrainian MP Andrii Artemenko's plan for a Russian withdrawal and a referendum on *leasing* Crimea to Russia for 50 or 100 years reaches [[Michael Flynn]]'s office via [[Michael Cohen]] and [[Felix Sater]] (reported Feb 19, 2017) *[single-sourced]*. - **Feb 23, 2017** — **US ▸** Kilimnik tells RFE/RL about a "Mariupol plan" — the origin of the name — and claims Manafort was not involved. - **Feb 26, 2017** — **US ▸** Manafort meets Kilimnik in Madrid; Kilimnik has flown in from Moscow. - **Oct 30, 2017** — **US ▸** Manafort and Gates are indicted by [[Robert Mueller]]'s office. - **Dec 22, 2017** — **US ▸** The Trump administration approves sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank missiles. The State Department formally clears a $47 million Javelin sale (210 missiles, 37 launch units) on **Mar 1, 2018**. The administration that softened the platform plank is the first to send the weapons the plank had promised. - **Early 2018** — **US ▸** Manafort, now under indictment, has his pollster draft a Ukraine survey using "a three-page primer on the plan sent by Kilimnik." Kilimnik keeps promoting the plan to the U.S. executive branch into summer 2018. - **May 15, 2018** — Putin opens the Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea. - **May 24, 2018** — The JIT names Russia's 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade as the owner of the Buk that downed MH17. - **Aug 21, 2018** — **US ▸** Manafort is convicted on eight counts of bank and tax fraud in Virginia. - **Nov 25, 2018** — Kerch Strait incident: Russia fires on and seizes three Ukrainian navy vessels and 24 sailors trying to pass under the new bridge into the Sea of Azov. ## Era IV — Impeachment and Buildup (2019 – February 2022) - **Spring 2019** — **US ▸** [[Rudy Giuliani]] runs a pressure campaign in Kyiv for investigations of [[Joe Biden]] and [[Hunter Biden]]'s role at [[Burisma]]; Ambassador [[Marie Yovanovitch]] is recalled. See [[Trump-Ukraine Scandal]]. - **Apr 21, 2019** — [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] wins the presidential runoff with 73.22%. - **Jul 25, 2019** — **US ▸** The Trump–Zelensky call ("I would like you to do us a favor though"), with congressionally approved military aid on hold. The call's reference to CrowdStrike carries the "Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in 2016" story into the Oval Office — see [[CrowdStrike Conspiracy Theory]]. - **Dec 9, 2019** — Zelensky and Putin meet for the only time, at a Normandy Format summit in Paris. - **Dec 18, 2019** — **US ▸** The House impeaches Trump (230–197 on abuse of power, 229–198 on obstruction of Congress). [[Alexander Vindman]] is a key witness. See [[Trump First Impeachment]]. - **Feb 5, 2020** — **US ▸** The Senate acquits (48–52 and 47–53). - **Sept 10, 2020** — **US ▸** Treasury sanctions Ukrainian MP Andrii Derkach, a source for pro-Trump attacks on Biden, as an "active Russian agent for over a decade." - **Dec 23, 2020** — **US ▸** Trump pardons Manafort. - **Mar–Apr 2021** — Russia masses troops on Ukraine's border and in Crimea; Defense Minister [[Sergei Shoigu]] orders a partial pullback on **Apr 22**. - **Apr 15, 2021** — **US ▸** Treasury sanctions Kilimnik as "a known Russian Intelligence Services agent" who gave Russian intelligence "sensitive information on polling and campaign strategy," and who "at Yanukovych's direction... sought to institute a plan that would return Yanukovych to power in Ukraine." - **Jul 12, 2021** — Putin publishes "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians," arguing that Ukrainians and Russians are one people — the intellectual case for the invasion. - **Autumn 2021** — A second, larger Russian buildup. - **Dec 17, 2021** — Russia publishes draft treaties demanding that NATO bar Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states and roll back its posture in Eastern Europe. - **Feb 21, 2022** — Putin recognizes the "Donetsk" and "Luhansk People's Republics," killing Minsk II. ## Era V — Full-Scale Invasion (February – December 2022) - **Feb 24, 2022** — Russia invades from the north, east and south, including a thrust on Kyiv from [[Belarus]]. See [[Russo-Ukrainian War]]. - **Late Feb – Mar 2022** — The Kyiv offensive stalls; Hostomel, Irpin and Bucha are occupied. - **Mar 16, 2022** — A Russian airstrike destroys the Mariupol Drama Theatre, where civilians were sheltering; an AP investigation estimated about 600 dead. See [[Siege of Mariupol]]. - **Mar 29, 2022** — At talks in Istanbul, Russia says it will "drastically" cut military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv. - **Apr 2, 2022** — After the Russian pullback, journalists find civilian bodies in the streets of Bucha. See [[Bucha Massacre]]. - **Apr 14, 2022** — The Black Sea Fleet flagship *Moskva* sinks after being hit by two Ukrainian Neptune missiles the night before. - **May 20, 2022** — Russia announces the last Mariupol defenders at Azovstal have surrendered. The land bridge to Crimea is complete. - **Jul 22, 2022** — The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the UN, reopens Ukrainian grain exports. - **Sept 6, 2022** — Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive begins; Izium and Kupiansk are retaken by **Sept 10**. - **Sept 21, 2022** — Putin announces "partial mobilization." - **Sept 26, 2022** — Explosions rupture three of the four Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic. - **Sept 30, 2022** — Putin claims to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, none of which Russia fully controls. - **Oct 8, 2022** — A truck bomb damages the Kerch Strait bridge. - **Nov 11, 2022** — Ukraine liberates Kherson city after Russia orders withdrawal across the Dnipro on **Nov 9**. - **Nov 17, 2022** — A Dutch court convicts three men in absentia for MH17, including Girkin. - **Dec 21, 2022** — **US ▸** Zelensky addresses a joint meeting of Congress. ## Era VI — Attrition (2023) - **Mar 17, 2023** — The [[International Criminal Court]] issues arrest warrants for Putin and children's commissioner [[Maria Lvova-Belova]] over the [[Deportation of Ukrainian Children]]. - **Apr 4, 2023** — Finland joins [[NATO]]. - **May 20, 2023** — [[Wagner Group]] claims Bakhmut after the longest battle of the war. - **Jun 4, 2023** — Ukraine's counteroffensive begins in the south (dated by the Institute for the Study of War). - **Jun 6, 2023** — The Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro is destroyed, flooding the lower river. - **Jun 23–24, 2023** — [[Yevgeny Prigozhin]]'s Wagner mutiny: Wagner seizes Rostov-on-Don and marches toward Moscow before standing down under a deal brokered by [[Alexander Lukashenko]]. - **Jul 17, 2023** — Russia quits the grain deal. - **Aug 23, 2023** — Prigozhin dies when his plane crashes northwest of Moscow, two months to the day after the mutiny. - **Nov 1, 2023** — Commander-in-chief [[Valerii Zaluzhnyi]] publishes an essay and interview in *The Economist*; in the interview he calls the war a "stalemate." The counteroffensive has failed to break through. - **Dec 14, 2023** — The EU decides to open accession talks with Ukraine. ## Era VII — The Long Grind (2024) - **Feb 8, 2024** — Zelensky replaces Zaluzhnyi with [[Oleksandr Syrsky]]. - **Feb 8, 2024** — **US ▸** [[Tucker Carlson]] releases his interview with Putin, recorded in Moscow. - **Feb 13, 2024** — **US ▸** The Senate passes a $95 billion national-security supplemental, including Ukraine aid, 70–29. House Speaker [[Mike Johnson]] does not bring it to a vote for two months. - **Feb 16, 2024** — [[Alexei Navalny]] dies in an Arctic prison. - **Feb 17, 2024** — Ukraine withdraws from Avdiivka, short of ammunition. - **Mar 7, 2024** — Sweden joins NATO. - **Apr 20, 2024** — **US ▸** The House passes $60.84 billion for Ukraine, 311–112; a majority of House Republicans vote no. **Apr 24** — [[Joe Biden]] signs the $95 billion package. Congress's five Ukraine supplementals since 2022 total about **$174.2 billion** (CRS). - **May 10, 2024** — Russia opens a new offensive in Kharkiv oblast. - **Aug 6, 2024** — Ukraine invades Russia's Kursk oblast — the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since World War II. - **Oct 28, 2024** — NATO confirms [[North Korea]]n troops are in Kursk; about 11,000 are deployed and join the fighting from November. - **Nov 5, 2024** — **US ▸** Trump wins the presidency. - **Nov 17–19, 2024** — **US ▸** Biden authorizes Ukraine to strike inside Russia with U.S. ATACMS missiles; Ukraine fires six at Bryansk oblast on **Nov 19**. - **Nov 21, 2024** — Russia strikes Dnipro with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik. ## Era VIII — The Deal Track (2025) Call-level detail: [[Trump-Putin Calls Timeline]]. - **Feb 12, 2025** — **US ▸** First Trump–Putin call of the second term; Trump says negotiations will start "immediately." The same day in Brussels, [[Pete Hegseth]] calls a return to pre-2014 borders "unrealistic" and rules out Ukrainian NATO membership. - **Feb 14, 2025** — **US ▸** [[JD Vance]]'s speech in Munich attacks European governments rather than Russia ([[Vance Munich Security Conference Speech]]). - **Feb 18, 2025** — **US ▸** In Riyadh, [[Marco Rubio]], [[Mike Waltz]] and [[Steve Witkoff]] meet Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and aide Yuri Ushakov — without Ukraine. - **Feb 19, 2025** — **US ▸** Trump calls Zelensky "a Dictator without Elections" on [[Truth Social]]. - **Feb 28, 2025** — **US ▸** The Oval Office blowup: Trump and Vance berate Zelensky before the cameras; the minerals deal goes unsigned. - **Mar 3, 2025** — **US ▸** The U.S. pauses military aid. On **Mar 5** CIA Director [[John Ratcliffe]] confirms a pause in intelligence sharing. - **Mar 11, 2025** — **US ▸** In Jeddah, Ukraine accepts a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire; aid and intelligence resume. Russia does not accept. - **Mar 18, 2025** — **US ▸** Putin agrees only to a 30-day pause on energy strikes. - **Apr 30, 2025** — **US ▸** The U.S.–Ukraine minerals deal is signed. - **May 16, 2025** — Russia and Ukraine hold their first direct talks since 2022, in Istanbul; they agree a prisoner swap and little else. Further rounds follow on **Jun 2** and **Jul 23**. - **Jun 1, 2025** — Operation Spiderweb: Ukrainian drones smuggled into Russia hit strategic bomber bases; Ukraine claims 41 aircraft hit. - **Jul 14, 2025** — **US ▸** Trump announces U.S. weapons will be sold to NATO allies for Ukraine, and threatens 100% tariffs if there is no deal in 50 days. The arrangement becomes PURL (the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) in August. - **Jul 22–31, 2025** — The Rada strips the anti-corruption bureau NABU and prosecutor SAPO of their independence and Zelensky signs it; street protests force a law restoring it, signed **Jul 31**. - **Aug 15, 2025** — **US ▸** Trump hosts Putin in Anchorage — Putin's first visit to a Western country since 2022. No ceasefire. Afterward Trump argues Ukraine should cede the Donbas. See [[Anchorage Summit 2025]]. - **Aug 18, 2025** — **US ▸** Zelensky and seven European leaders meet Trump at the White House. - **Sept 2025** — **US ▸** Trump calls Russia a "paper tiger"; Putin publicly mocks the phrase. - **Oct 22, 2025** — **US ▸** Trump cancels a planned Budapest summit and sanctions [[Rosneft]] and [[Lukoil]] — the first major Russia sanctions of his second term. - **Oct 24–26, 2025** — **US ▸** Putin's envoy [[Kirill Dmitriev]] spends three days in Miami with Witkoff's team. - **Nov 10, 2025** — NABU unveils "Operation Midas," an alleged ~$100 million kickback scheme at the state nuclear company Energoatom tied to Tymur Mindich, a Zelensky associate. - **Nov 19–20, 2025** — **US ▸** Axios reveals and then publishes the [[28-Point Peace Plan]]: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk "de facto Russian," Ukraine's withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk into a "demilitarized buffer zone," a 600,000 cap on its army, no NATO, elections in 100 days, amnesty for all. It is the Mariupol Plan's logic at the scale of 2025. - **Nov 23, 2025** — **US ▸** U.S.–Ukraine talks in Geneva cut the plan to 19 points. - **Nov 28, 2025** — Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak resigns after NABU searches his home and office. - **Dec 1, 2025** — Russia claims Pokrovsk; Ukraine denies it. - **Dec 14–15, 2025** — **US ▸** Talks in Berlin with Witkoff and [[Jared Kushner]]. - **Dec 19, 2025** — The EU agrees a €90 billion loan to fund Ukraine through 2026–27 by joint borrowing, dropping the plan to lend against frozen Russian assets. - **Dec 28, 2025** — **US ▸** Trump calls Putin, then meets Zelensky at [[Mar-a-Lago]] on what is now a 20-point framework. ## Era IX — Talks, Iran and a Frozen Front (January – September 2026) - **Jan 2, 2026** — Zelensky's government overhaul: [[Mykhailo Fedorov]] is nominated as defense minister; military-intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov becomes presidential chief of staff. - **Jan 6, 2026** — The [[Coalition of the Willing]]'s Paris Declaration: U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring, a multinational force for after the fighting, and a coordination cell in Paris. Zelensky, [[Emmanuel Macron]] and [[Keir Starmer]] also sign a declaration of intent on deploying troops. - **Jan 2026** — Russian strikes on the grid leave hundreds of Kyiv apartment buildings without heat in −15°C cold. Ukraine consolidates control of Kupiansk. - **Jan 23–24, 2026** — First trilateral U.S.–Russia–Ukraine talks, in Abu Dhabi. - **Late Jan – early Feb 2026** — Russia takes Myrnohrad (before Jan 28, per ISW) and Huliaipole (confirmed **Feb 6**). ISW sees no Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk after Jan 28. - **Feb 4–5, 2026** — Second Abu Dhabi round: a 314-prisoner exchange, and U.S.–Russian military dialogue resumes. - **Feb 5, 2026** — [[New START]], the last U.S.–Russian nuclear arms-control treaty, expires. - **Feb 17–18, 2026** — Third trilateral round in Geneva, with British, French and German advisers; the second day ends abruptly. - **Feb 28, 2026** — **US ▸** The U.S. and Israel attack Iran ([[Iran War 2026]]). Ukraine drops down Washington's agenda; in March the administration temporarily waives oil sanctions on Russia as well as Iran ([[Russia and Iran Oil Sanctions Waivers 2026]]). - **Mar 19, 2026** — The Kremlin says the trilateral track is "on pause" because of the Iran war. - **Mar 21–22, 2026** — **US ▸** U.S.–Ukraine bilateral talks in Miami. - **April 2026** — ISW records Russia's first net monthly territorial loss since August 2024 (about 116 km²). - **Apr 12, 2026** — [[Péter Magyar]]'s [[Tisza Party]] defeats [[Viktor Orbán]] in [[Hungary]]'s election — removing the EU's most persistent Ukraine veto player. - **Apr 23, 2026** — The EU adopts its 20th Russia sanctions package. - **Apr 29, 2026** — **US ▸** Putin proposes a Victory Day truce on a call with Trump. The **May 9–11** ceasefire holds, followed by the first stage of a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange (205 for 205 on **May 15**). - **Jun 4, 2026** — Hungary lifts its 17-month veto on opening Ukraine's EU negotiating clusters *[FT via a single secondary report]*. - **Jul 3, 2026** — Russia claims Kostiantynivka; as of early August ISW called the claim unconfirmed. - **Jul 7–8, 2026** — **US ▸** [[NATO Summit Ankara 2026]]. Allies commit continued funding for Ukraine (reported as €70 billion for 2026 and similar for 2027 *[single-sourced]*). - **Jul 10–14, 2026** — The EU unblocks a new negotiating cluster with Ukraine and [[Moldova]]. - **Jul 15–16, 2026** — Zelensky removes Fedorov as defense minister, citing an irreconcilable conflict with Syrsky; protests spread across Ukraine. - **Jul 21, 2026** — Zelensky fires Syrsky and names Gen. [[Mykhailo Drapatyi]] commander-in-chief. See [[Ukrainian Armed Forces Command Structure]] and [[Ukrainian Military Doctrine Split]]. - **Jul 28, 2026** — **US ▸** Trump receives Zelensky at the White House and agrees to Patriot production licenses. - **Aug 3, 2026** — ISW: Russian mechanized assaults in July did not change the line; no sign Russia can speed up its advance. - **Sept 3, 2026** — Hungary is still blocking the screening of two further EU negotiating clusters for Ukraine. - **Sept 5, 2026** — **US ▸** Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in the Kremlin for about three hours, with Dmitriev present; a "substantive plan" is promised. **Sept 6** — the envoys take the talks to Kyiv. The front is described as largely frozen, and Ukraine's Patriot interceptors are running low. - **Sept 8, 2026** — **US ▸** Trump and Putin speak for about an hour. - **Sept 13, 2026** — The Kremlin says trilateral talks in October are possible, rejects a Putin–Zelensky meeting at the G20, and insists any meeting be in Moscow. - **Sept 14, 2026** — **US ▸** Trump announces an energy-infrastructure truce. Zelensky conditionally accepts; the Kremlin does not agree, and strikes on refineries and Kyiv continue. - **Sept 22, 2026** — **US ▸** Trump and Zelensky meet for about 40 minutes at the UN General Assembly. No deal. Trump suggests Zelensky go to Moscow; Zelensky refuses. - **Sept 23, 2026** — **US ▸** Rubio meets Lavrov and invites Putin to the [[G20]] summit in Miami in December. Lavrov says Russia will not pause fighting during talks. Zelensky tells the UN that "Russia's revenues must remain a target." - **Late Sept 2026** — **US ▸** Dmitriev meets Witkoff and Kushner in New York on **Sept 25**. The U.S. envoys then signal a pause of several weeks to consult Moscow and allies *[date of the pause unconfirmed]*. --- ## The Pattern **1. Every settlement on offer since 2015 has the same shape.** The occupied east gets special status or passes to Russia; Ukraine's sovereignty over the rest is postponed or conditioned; and Washington's endorsement is the trigger. Minsk II's sequencing in the [[Minsk Agreements]] (special status and elections *before* border control), the [[Mariupol Plan]] (an autonomous Donbas under Yanukovych, launched by a Trump "wink"), the 2017 Crimea-lease plan, and the [[28-Point Peace Plan]] (Ukraine withdraws from land it still holds) are variations on one document. What changes is the American channel it travels through: a campaign chairman's former deputy in 2016, a personal lawyer and a real-estate promoter in 2017, a special envoy and Putin's sovereign-wealth-fund chief in 2025. **2. The American thread runs from a platform plank to an aid pause.** The July 2016 platform change — "lethal defensive weapons" softened to "appropriate assistance" — was small and was never shown to have been ordered by Trump or Russia. But it is the first time a Republican campaign moved its Ukraine position toward Moscow's, and the line runs forward: the 2019 aid hold, the six-month House blockade of 2023–24, the March 2025 aid and intelligence pause. The counter-current is real too: the first Trump administration sent the Javelins the plank had dropped, and the second imposed the first serious oil sanctions and licensed Patriot production. **3. The front line barely moves; the political calendar does.** After the 2022 swings, gains are measured in villages. Zelensky has said Russia took about 890 km² in 2026 and Ukraine retook about 800 km² *[single-sourced; date of interview unconfirmed]*. ISW recorded a net Russian loss in April 2026. The deadlines that drive events are American — elections, summits, and the Iran war, which froze the talks for a quarter. **4. The weapons arrive late, and the debate is always about the last one.** Javelins took from 2014 to 2018; long-range ATACMS strikes into Russia came in November 2024, almost three years into the full-scale war; Tomahawks were dangled and withdrawn in October 2025; Patriot production licenses came in July 2026, as interceptor stocks ran low. ## Where It Stands — September 30, 2026 - **Front:** largely static. Russia holds Crimea, most of Luhansk and Donetsk, and much of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts; its claim to Kostiantynivka is unconfirmed. - **Talks:** no trilateral round since February. The U.S. envoys have taken a pause of several weeks; the Kremlin mentions October, insists on Moscow as the venue, and says it will not stop fighting while talking. The next obvious stage is the Miami G20 in December, to which Putin has been invited. - **Truce attempts:** Trump's September 14 energy truce was not agreed by Moscow, and both sides kept striking energy targets. - **Ukraine:** a new defense leadership after the July shakeup; the Yermak-era corruption case still running; elections, Zelensky says, only after a ceasefire. - **Europe:** the €90 billion EU loan funds 2026–27; accession clusters are opening slowly past Hungarian resistance. ## Watch - Whether October trilateral talks happen, and where - The winter strike campaign against Ukraine's grid, and whether any energy truce holds - The Miami G20 in December and a possible Trump–Putin meeting - U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, and what a new Congress means for Ukraine funding - Russia's Kostiantynivka claim and the Zaporizhzhia front ## See Also - [[Russo-Ukrainian War]] — the analytic event page - [[Mariupol Plan]] — the 2016 Kilimnik–Manafort plan, in full - [[Paul Manafort Ukraine Operations]] · [[Konstantin Kilimnik]] · [[2016 Republican Platform Ukraine Amendment]] - [[Annexation of Crimea]] · [[Donbas War (2014-2022)]] · [[Minsk Agreements]] · [[Malaysia Airlines Flight 17]] - [[Siege of Mariupol]] · [[Bucha Massacre]] · [[Deportation of Ukrainian Children]] - [[28-Point Peace Plan]] · [[Anchorage Summit 2025]] · [[Trump-Putin Calls Timeline]] - [[Trump-Ukraine Scandal]] · [[Trump First Impeachment]] · [[Trump-Russia Arc Timeline]] - [[Ukrainian History Hub]] · [[Russian History Hub]] · [[Putinism]] · [[Hybrid Warfare]] · [[Kremlin Disinformation]] - [[Ukrainian Armed Forces Command Structure]] · [[Ukraine NATO Accession Debate]] - [[Iran War 2026 Timeline]] — the war that paused the talks