# Consumer Confidence Index The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the other major survey-based measure of how Americans feel about the economy — often confused with the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index but methodologically distinct. Understanding the difference between the two matters because they can diverge, and which one gets cited usually depends on which tells the desired political story. ## Latest reading *As of 2026-10-07 · refreshed monthly · the cross-indicator read lives at [[State of the US Economy]].* - **September 2026: 81.9**, down from 88.6 and well below the ~89 consensus. It is the **lowest since 2014**. Present Situation Index **109.3**; Expectations Index **63.6**. - The Conference Board said mentions of prices and high costs, especially oil and gas, hit new highs. Its index leans on labor-market questions, and the Michigan [[Consumer Sentiment Index]] leans on prices; both fell together this month. *Sources:* [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence) · [Reuters via GV Wire](https://gvwire.com/2026/09/29/us-consumer-confidence-dives-to-more-than-12-year-low-in-september/) ## Methodology: CCI vs. Michigan ICS | Dimension | Conference Board CCI | Michigan ICS | |-----------|---------------------|-------------| | **Publisher** | The Conference Board (private business research org) | University of Michigan (academic) | | **Sample size** | ~3,000 households/month (mail survey) | ~600 households/month (phone survey) | | **Base year** | 1985 = 100 | 1966 = 100 | | **Questions** | 5 questions focused on labor market and business conditions | 5 questions focused on personal finances and buying conditions | | **Sub-indices** | Present Situation Index + Expectations Index | Index of Current Economic Conditions + Index of Consumer Expectations | | **Key difference** | Weighted more toward **labor market perception** (job availability, business outlook) | Weighted more toward **financial conditions** (personal finances, purchasing power) | | **Release** | Last Tuesday of each month | Mid-month (preliminary) and end-of-month (final) | | **Typical range** | ~20 (2009 trough) to ~145 (2000 peak) | ~50 (2022 trough) to ~112 (2000 peak) | **Why the distinction matters politically:** Because the CCI weighs labor market conditions more heavily, it tends to be more optimistic during periods of strong employment but high inflation (like 2022–2024). The Michigan ICS, more sensitive to prices and personal finances, was more pessimistic during the same period. Political actors choose whichever index supports their narrative. ## When They Diverge The most politically useful moments are when the two indices tell different stories: | Period | CCI Signal | ICS Signal | What the Gap Revealed | |--------|-----------|-----------|----------------------| | **2022 (Biden, post-inflation spike)** | Declined but held ~100 (strong job market buoying confidence) | Crashed to record low 50.0 (price pain dominating) | People felt good about jobs but terrible about prices — the CPI was winning the perception war | | **Late 2023** | Recovering, above 100 | Still depressed ~60–70 | Labor market recovery translated into CCI confidence but not into ICS sentiment — the "vibes" gap | | **Early 2025 ([[Trump 2.0]])** | Present Situation strong; Expectations Index collapsing | Both sub-indices depressed | CCI split: people think today is okay but the future looks bad (tariff/DOGE anxiety) | **The Expectations Index collapse (2025):** The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell below 80 in early 2025 — a level the Conference Board itself notes as a recession signal. This forward-looking component was picking up tariff uncertainty, DOGE disruption anxiety, and geopolitical instability. The Present Situation Index remained relatively strong, creating a split: "Things are fine now but about to get worse." This is a classic pre-recessionary signal. ## Political Uses The CCI has the same political manipulation patterns as the Michigan ICS, with the added feature that **two competing indices allow cherry-picking between them**: | Situation | Preferred Index | Reason | |-----------|----------------|--------| | Strong jobs, high inflation | CCI | Weights labor market more; looks better | | Weak jobs, low inflation | ICS | Personal finance focus; reflects unemployment pain | | Both bad | Whichever is worse | Use the ugliest number as attack | | Both good | Whichever is better | Use the best number for credit | **The "consumer confidence collapsed" headline game:** Because CCI uses a 1985 = 100 base and the Michigan ICS uses 1966 = 100, the absolute numbers are not comparable. A CCI of 95 and an ICS of 65 might reflect similar conditions. But headlines that say "Consumer Confidence at 95" sound much better than "Consumer Sentiment at 65" — the bigger number reads as healthier regardless of the base-year difference. Innumerate media reporting (and political operatives who count on it) exploit this constantly. ## See Also - [[Consumer Sentiment Index]] — The competing measure; same category, different methodology, different political uses - [[Consumer Price Index]] — What drives the personal-finance side of both surveys - [[Unemployment Rate]] — What drives the CCI's labor market component - [[GDP]] — The macro context both surveys are reacting to - [[Misery Index]] — Another composite that sentiment indices roughly track - [[Political Psychology]] — Why two surveys measuring "how people feel" produce different numbers: the questions frame the answer