# State of the US Economy The vault's answer to one question: **how healthy is the US economy right now?** Every number below carries its date and is confirmed in two independent sources, primary releases first. The page is refreshed monthly after the CPI release; each refresh appends one line to the snapshot log at the bottom, so the page also keeps its own history. This page is a **reading**, not a catalog. What each statistic measures and how it gets weaponized lives on the indicator pages in [[Economic Indicators Hub]]. Schools of thought live in [[Economics Hub]], and institutions in [[Financial System Hub]]. How the US economy connects to the rest of the world lives in [[Global Economy Hub]]. ## The read — October 2026 **An energy-price shock, a stalling labor market, and a central bank raising rates into both.** The aggregates are not recessionary. Real GDP grew 2.2% in Q2, retail sales jumped 1.2% in August, both ISM surveys are above 50, and layoffs remain rare. But hiring has nearly stopped: payrolls averaged about 51,000 a month over the last three months, and the participation rate has fallen sharply since December. Headline inflation (3.4%) is being driven by energy prices up 16% year over year in the wake of the [[Iran War 2026]], while core CPI has fallen to its lowest since 2021. The catch is that the Fed's own core PCE measure is still 3.0% and pipeline prices are hot (PPI 5.4%, ISM prices at multi-year highs). So the [[Federal Reserve]] **raised** rates on Sept 16 and projects one more hike. **Households feel worse than the aggregates.** Consumer confidence is at its lowest since 2014 and Michigan sentiment is 48.1. Real wages are negative again, and mortgage rates are above 7% because the 10-year Treasury is above 5%. Meanwhile the S&P 500 set a record close on Oct 6. That split is the [[Stock Market Indices]] "scoreboard problem" in real time, and it is the core of the [[Affordability]] fight in the [[2026 Midterms Hub]]. **Is it a recession?** No. The [[Sahm Rule]] reads 0.00, the curve is not inverted, and no [[Recession]] has been dated since 2020 ([[NBER Recession Dating]]). **Is it stagflation?** Not on the textbook definition: growth is positive and core CPI is falling. But the configuration of supply-shock inflation, slowing hiring, and rate hikes is the one [[Stagflation]] and [[Supply Shock]] describe, and the labels are being fought over. Watch September CPI (Oct 14) and the Oct 27–28 FOMC. ## Dashboard | Domain | Indicator | Latest | Context | As of | |---|---|---|---|---| | Growth | [[GDP]] | **+2.2%** annualized, Q2 2026 | Q1 +2.5%; 2025 +2.3% (current vintage) | BEA, Sept 30 | | Growth | Retail sales | **+1.2%** m/m, Aug | July revised −0.5% | Census, Sept 16 | | Growth | ISM manufacturing / services | **54.5 / 54.9**, Sept | Both above 50 (expansion) | ISM, Oct 1 / Oct 5 | | Labor | [[Nonfarm Payrolls]] | **+29K**, Sept | Jul–Aug revised −60K; 3-mo avg ≈ +51K | BLS, Oct 2 | | Labor | [[Unemployment Rate]] | **4.2%**, Sept | [[U-6 Unemployment]] 7.6%; Dec 2025 was 4.4% | BLS, Oct 2 | | Labor | [[Labor Force Participation Rate]] | **61.8%**, Sept | 62.4% in Dec 2025 | BLS, Oct 2 | | Labor | [[Initial Jobless Claims]] | **197K**, wk of Sept 26 | 4-wk avg 200K; near multi-decade lows | DOL, Oct 1 | | Labor | [[JOLTS]] openings / quits rate | **7.1M / 1.9%**, Aug | Openings down 256K m/m | BLS, Sept 29 | | Prices | [[Consumer Price Index]] | **3.4%** y/y, Aug | Core **2.4%**; energy +16.3% | BLS, Sept 11 | | Prices | [[Personal Consumption Expenditures]] / core | **3.4% / 3.0%** y/y, Aug | The Fed's target measure | BEA, Sept 30 | | Prices | [[Producer Price Index]] | **5.4%** y/y, Aug | Upstream pressure | BLS, Sept 10 | | Prices | [[Gas Prices]] | **$4.367/gal** | Sept avg $4.33, a September record; diesel $6.30 | AAA, Oct 7 | | Households | [[Real Wages]] | **−0.3%** y/y, Aug | Nominal AHE +3.0% y/y (Sept) | BLS | | Households | [[Inflation Expectations]] | **4.6%** 1-yr (Michigan, Sept) | Long-run 3.4% | U. Michigan | | Households | [[Consumer Sentiment Index]] / [[Consumer Confidence Index]] | **48.1 / 81.9**, Sept | Confidence lowest since 2014 | U. Michigan / Conference Board | | Households | Median household income | **$87,460** (2025) | +2.6%, record high | Census, Sept 15 | | Households | [[Poverty Rate]] | **10.2%** official / **13.1%** SPM (2025) | Official −0.5 pt | Census, Sept 15 | | Households | [[Gini Coefficient]] | **0.490** (2025) | Unchanged (not significant) | Census, Sept 15 | | Rates | [[Federal Funds Rate]] | **3.75–4.00%** | Hiked Sept 16 (12–0); end-2026 median 4.1% | Fed | | Rates | 10-yr / 2-yr Treasury | **5.31% / 4.84%** | Curve +48bp, not inverted ([[Yield Curve Inversion]]) | Treasury, Oct 5 | | Rates | [[Mortgage Rates]] (30-yr) | **7.28%** | Six straight weekly increases | Freddie Mac, Oct 1 | | Markets | [[Stock Market Indices]] | S&P 500 **7,818.93** record (Oct 6) | ≈ +14% YTD (computed) | Oct 6 close | | Fiscal | [[Federal Deficit and National Debt]] | Debt **> $40T** (crossed Aug 19) | FY2026 deficit $1.97T through Aug | Treasury / CBO | | Fiscal | Net interest | **$1.017T**, FY2026 through Aug | +9% y/y | Treasury | | Trade | [[Trade Deficit]] | **$105.6B**, Aug | Largest since Mar 2025; record imports | BEA, Oct 6 | Sources for every row are on the linked indicator pages' `Latest reading` sections. Rows with no indicator page in this vault, plus a few cross-checks, are sourced here: - Retail sales: [Census](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf), [AP via BNN Bloomberg](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/09/16/us-retail-sales-rise-a-better-than-expected-12-in-august-after-shoppers-pulled-back-spending-in-july/). - ISM: [IndustryWeek](https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/news/55409073/september-ism-report-manufacturing-industry-extends-expansion-streak-for-ninth-consecutive-month), [First Trust](https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/10/1/the-ism-manufacturing-index-declined-to-54.5-in-september), [Reuters via Spokesman-Review](https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/05/us-services-sector-cools-in-september-price-pressu/). - Claims: [DOL](https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf). - JOLTS: [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/jolts_09292026.htm). - PCE: [BEA](https://bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026). - PPI: [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm). - Confidence: [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence). - Yields: [Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610). - Mortgages: [Freddie Mac](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms). - Median income: [Census](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/income-poverty-health-insurance-coverage.html). ## Policy settings - **Monetary:** fed funds 3.75–4.00% after the first hike since 2023. The [[Kevin Warsh]] Fed's Sept 16 hike came over the President's public demands for a cut ([AP](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/09/16/federal-reserve-hikes-key-rate-for-1st-time-in-3-years-defying-trump-demands-for-a-cut/)). For how a rate decision reaches mortgages and card rates, see [[Monetary Policy Transmission Flow]]; for the century of pressure on the Fed, see [[Interest Rate Policy Timeline]]; for the failure mode, see [[Fiscal Dominance]]. - **Fiscal:** FY2026 closed Sept 30 with a deficit near $2 trillion (final figures due mid-October). Net interest now exceeds $1 trillion a year. See [[Federal Budget FY2026]] and [[Big Beautiful Bill]]. - **Trade:** - [[Learning Resources v. Trump]] struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February. - The replacement regime is [[Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs]] plus the surviving [[Section 232]] tariffs. The long arc is in [[US Trade Policy Timeline]]. - IEEPA refunds have run about $122B through mid-September. - US–China cuts of about $60B are agreed but not in effect. - See [[Trade Deficit]] and [[Tariffs]]. ## Data gaps and integrity The official record has two holes from the October–November 2025 shutdown. The **October 2025 household survey was never collected**, so there is no October unemployment rate, and **there is no October 2025 CPI**. Benchmark revisions have also been unusually large in both directions. BEA's Sept 30 annual update lifted 2025 growth to 2.3%, and the June trade revision reversed the "2025 deficit narrowed" story. The political fight over the numbers themselves is documented at [[BLS Data Integrity Crisis]] and [[Federal Statistical System Tree]]. Rule for this page: always state the vintage of a revised series. ## Release calendar — what moves this page next | Date | Release | |---|---| | Oct 8 | Weekly jobless claims | | Oct 9 | Michigan sentiment, October preliminary | | Oct 13 | IMF *World Economic Outlook*, October 2026 (see [[Global Economy Hub]]) | | Oct 14 | September CPI and Real Earnings | | Oct 15 | September PPI, September retail sales | | Oct 27–28 | FOMC meeting | | Oct 29 | September PCE / personal income | | Late Oct | Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate (BEA schedule) | | Early Nov | October jobs report | ## Snapshot log One line per monthly refresh. Never edit past lines; they are the page's memory. | Refresh | GDP (latest qtr) | CPI / core | Unemp. | Payrolls | Fed funds | 10-yr | 30-yr mortgage | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 2026-10-07 | Q2 +2.2% | 3.4% / 2.4% (Aug) | 4.2% (Sept) | +29K (Sept) | 3.75–4.00% | 5.31% | 7.28% | ## See also - [[Global Economy Hub]] — the world the US economy sits in - [[Economic Indicators Hub]] — every indicator, what it measures, how it is weaponized - [[Financial System Hub]] — banks, markets, regulators - [[Economics Hub]] — the discipline and its schools - [[Corruption Hub]] — where the money goes when it leaves the statistics