# Federal Budget FY2026 The **current fiscal year** — **Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 30, 2026** — under the second Trump administration. Numbers here are **CBO projections**, not actuals; the year closes Sep 30, 2026. This page updates as the FY progresses. **Projected:** outlays **~$7.4 trillion**, revenues **~$5.6 trillion**, deficit **~$2.1 trillion**, per CBO's **July 2026 *Monthly Budget Review*** — a **$200 billion upward revision** from the ~$1.9 trillion carried in CBO's February 2026 *Budget and Economic Outlook*. Debt held by the public **crossed 100% of GDP in early 2026** (per CRFB). > [!note] On the frontmatter percentages > `deficit_pct_gdp: -6.6` is **derived, not sourced**: $2.1T measured against the > ~$31.8T GDP implied by this page's own `outlays_b: 7400` / `outlays_pct_gdp: 23.3` > pairing. CBO's MBR reports monthly and rolling-12-month totals, not a revised > full-year GDP or a revised outlay/receipt pair — so **`outlays_b` and `revenues_b` > still carry the February baseline** and should not be treated as re-scored. For a > separately-measured comparison, CRFB puts the **12-month rolling deficit of $1.9T at > about 6.1% of GDP**. All four numbers flip to sourced actuals when the FY2026 Final > Monthly Treasury Statement lands (~mid-October 2026). **Latest actuals — the deficit has now *overtaken* FY2025 (reversal).** CBO's *Monthly Budget Review* for June 2026 (released July 9) puts the deficit through the first **nine months at $1.4 trillion — $35 billion *more* than the same period of FY2025.** This flips the picture the May MBR showed (through eight months the deficit had been running ~$116B *below* FY2025, on tariff revenue): that improvement is gone. The **Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling striking down the [[Liberation Day Tariffs]]** (IEEPA) cut net customs-duty collections roughly in half and triggered a ~$166B refund wave, reopening the revenue hole, while the [[Big Beautiful Bill]]'s tax cuts and new spending reassert themselves underneath. June 2026 alone ran a **$126B deficit** against a **$27B surplus** in June 2025. **Net interest is the single largest spending increase — up $98B (+13%) over the nine months** — with Social Security benefits up $62B (+5%). The **12-month rolling deficit is $1.8 trillion**, and CRFB now projects FY2026 borrowing will "likely" total **$2 trillion or more** — above the CBO baseline figure carried in this page's frontmatter. **July MBR (released Aug 10, 2026) — the gap widens and the customs line goes negative.** Ten-month deficit: **$1.8 trillion, $169B more than FY2025**; **July alone ran a $431B deficit** (~$140B worse than July 2025). **Net customs duties were *negative* in July** — refunds paid out under the IEEPA clawback exceeded duties collected. CBO **raised its FY2026 deficit projection to $2.1 trillion** (from $1.9T in February) and now expects tariff/customs collections to come in **$250B below** its earlier projection. The 12-month rolling deficit reached **$1.9 trillion**, about **6.1% of GDP** (CRFB). (The Section 122 stopgap tariff expired July 24; its Section 301 successor duties took effect the same minute — first customs data spanning the handoff arrives in the August MBR.) **The one-sentence version of FY2026: ten months of borrowing has already exceeded twelve months of FY2025.** The ten-month deficit of **$1.8 trillion** is larger than [[Federal Budget FY2025]]'s **full-year $1.775 trillion** — with two months still to run. July alone borrowed **~$14 billion per day**. **Treasury confirmed the CBO read two days later.** The *Monthly Treasury Statement* for July (released **Aug 12, 2026**) puts the ten-month deficit at **$1.8 trillion** and **July at $432 billion**, against CBO's **$431 billion** estimate of **Aug 10** — a spread of about **0.2%**. See [[Monthly Treasury Statement]] for why the estimate lands this close and why the vault cites the MBR ahead of the MTS. ## The defining story: three funding lapses to fund one year FY2026 is the most dysfunctional appropriations year on record, with **three separate funding lapses**: 1. **The 43-day shutdown, Oct 1 – Nov 12, 2025** — the **longest in U.S. history** (~900,000 employees affected), ended by H.R. 5371 (P.L. 119-37): full-year appropriations for three bills (Agriculture, MilCon-VA, Legislative Branch) plus a [[Continuing Resolution]] for the rest through Jan 30, 2026. (House 222–209, Senate 68–32, signed Nov 12.) 2. **A 4-day shutdown, Jan 31 – Feb 3, 2026** — affecting about half of federal departments after the Jan 30 CR lapsed; ended Feb 3 with full-year funding for Defense, Labor-HHS-Education, Transportation-HUD, Financial Services, and State-Foreign Operations. 3. **A DHS-only partial shutdown, Feb 14 – Apr 30, 2026** — the [[Department of Homeland Security]] alone, deadlocked over immigration-enforcement provisions; reopened Apr 30 (ICE and part of CBP stayed unfunded). By mid-June 2026 the government is funded by **full-year appropriations, not a year-long CR — but only after three lapses.** See [[Government Shutdown]] and [[Appropriations Process]]. ## Projected headline totals | Metric | CBO Feb 2026 | CBO revised (Aug 2026) | |---|--:|--:| | Total outlays | ~$7,400B | — | | Total revenues | ~$5,600B | lower: customs ~$250B below Feb projection | | Deficit | ~−$1,900B | **~−$2,100B** | | Deficit % of GDP | ~−6% | ~−6.6% | | Outlays % of GDP | 23.3% | — | | Debt held by public | >100% of GDP | >100% of GDP | The frontmatter fields on this page still carry the **February baseline** (`deficit_b: -1900`) so the fiscal-year series stays comparable across pages. The **operative number as of the July MBR is $2.1 trillion.** Both the Section 122 → Section 301 tariff handoff and the IEEPA refund tail are still working through the customs line, so expect further revision in the August and September MBRs. ## The RWKB read The first full fiscal year of the second Trump term, and the first test of whether the [[DOGE]] / [[Rescission and Impoundment]] agenda actually bends the spending curve. Early signals: it did not — the CBO baseline projected a ~$1.9T deficit and the realized nine-month track (CRFB now sees **$2T or more**) is running *above* it, with the [[Big Beautiful Bill]]'s tax cuts widening the revenue gap. The one thing that had been narrowing the deficit — tariff revenue — was an illegal tax the Supreme Court clawed back, not a spending cut anyone chose. Meanwhile the thing nobody chose and nobody can cut, [[Net Interest on the Debt]], is the single largest driver of the year-over-year increase (+13%) and remains above $1 trillion. The theater cut nothing; the structural drivers never moved. Watch this page for end-of-FY actuals after Sep 30, 2026. ## Sources - CBO, *The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036* (Feb 11, 2026) — projections. - CBO, *Monthly Budget Review: June 2026* (Jul 9, 2026) — nine-month FY2026 deficit $1.4T, +$35B vs. FY2025; net-interest and Social Security drivers; customs-duty decline. - CRFB, "CBO Estimates FY 2026 Deficit Overtakes 2025, Totals $1.4 Trillion" and "12-Month Rolling Deficit is $1.8 Trillion in June 2026" (Jul 9, 2026). - CBO, *Monthly Budget Review: July 2026* (Aug 10, 2026) — ten-month deficit $1.8T (+$169B vs. FY2025); July deficit $431B; negative net customs duties; FY2026 projection raised to $2.1T; tariff collections $250B below prior projection. See also CRFB, "12-Month Rolling Deficit is $1.9 Trillion in July 2026," and Fortune (Aug 10, 2026). - CRS R48765; CRFB *Appropriations Watch FY2026* — shutdown/appropriations timeline. - CRFB (Apr 30, 2026) — debt-to-GDP crossing 100%. ## Related - [[Federal Budget FY2025]] · [[Federal Budget FY2027 Request]] · [[Budget Hub]] - [[Government Shutdown]] · [[Continuing Resolution]] · [[Big Beautiful Bill]]