# G. Elliott Morris **G. Elliott Morris** (George Elliott Morris, b. June 7, 1996) is an American data journalist and election analyst, publisher of the [[Strength In Numbers]] newsletter and the polling-aggregation site FiftyPlusOne. He is the analyst behind several numbers this vault relies on for the 2026 cycle — the 25-point erosion in Republican support among the young, nonwhite and working-class voters who powered the 2024 result, the disputed 32-point swing in the [[Texas Senate District 9 Special Election]], the independent crowd estimate for the [[No Kings March (October 2025)]], and the Strength In Numbers/Verasight approval series cited on the [[Affordability]] page. ## Career Morris became known as an undergraduate at the University of Texas at Austin, where his 2018 House forecast — correctly calling a Democratic takeover — made him, in *Vox*'s phrase, the "breakout star of 2018 election forecasting." He joined *The Economist* as a data journalist on graduation in 2018 and built its first presidential forecast model for 2020, whose early confidence in Joe Biden drew public criticism from Nate Silver and began a long-running feud between the two. In May 2023 ABC News hired him as editorial director of data analytics to run **FiveThirtyEight** after Silver's departure — a swap *New York* called "brutal." ABC shut the site and laid off its entire staff in March 2025. Two months later Morris launched *Strength In Numbers* on Substack, describing it as a gradual successor to 538, and in October 2025 added FiftyPlusOne as a polling-averages site. His 2022 book is *Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them*. ## In the 2026 cycle Morris's work enters the vault as the data-side counterpart to the [[Cook Political Report]]'s ratings. His finding that Republicans had lost roughly 25 points among the marginal 2024 voters is the empirical basis for the [[Dummymander]] argument — that mid-decade gerrymanders drawn on 2024 numbers could backfire. After the January 2026 SD-9 flip he computed a 31.4-point swing (rounded to 32 with minor-party candidates excluded); he was the only analyst to run that calculation, and the vault carries it with that caveat. On September 2, 2026, with co-host David Nir of *The Downballot*, he argued on the Strength In Numbers podcast that "Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms" — citing Trump's positions on data centers, renaming Lake Ontario (see [[Lake America Renaming Executive Order]]) and the [[White House Ballroom Project]] as issues where he sides against large majorities. That framing was picked up by Heather Cox Richardson the next day. ## See Also - [[Strength In Numbers]] — his newsletter - [[Cook Political Report]] — the ratings-side counterpart - [[Dummymander]] · [[Texas Senate District 9 Special Election]] · [[Affordability]] - [[2026 Midterm Elections]]