# Watching: Active Stories Active stories under ongoing tracking, organized by type of power being exercised. Each entry links to its full KB page, which contains a **Development Log** section with chronological updates. Tag: `active-tracking`. **37 active / 2 resolved.** --- ### Government Power & Abuse | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | | -------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | **[[SPLC Federal Indictment]]** | June 3, 2026 | DOJ obtained **superseding indictment** with new details on donor funds — alleging \$4M secretly funneled to KKK and extremist groups; SPLC's May 26 motion to dismiss ("vindictive prosecution") still pending; Alabama AG Marshall parallel civil probe continues | [[SPLC Federal Indictment]] | | **[[DNI Succession News Log]]** | October 7, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 4):** **The DNI becomes the AI czar.** Trump named [[Jay Clayton]] — sworn in as DNI in July — chair of a new White House [[Super Intelligence Force]], vice chairs [[Andrew Ferguson]], [[Emil Michael]], [[Scott Kupor]]; panel [[JD Vance]], [[Pete Hegseth]], [[Scott Bessent]], [[Susie Wiles]]; external advisers [[David Sacks]], [[Condoleezza Rice]]. **120 days** to report on risks and the federal role, with avoiding overregulation in the mandate. **No outlet states whether he remains DNI** — NPR, Defense One, TechRepublic and Nextgov all decline to say, and no vacancy has been noticed. [[Mark Warner]]: *"We still do not know what authority this new role will have, whether it will include developing safety standards or reviewing the most advanced models."* **Watch:** whether a DNI vacancy or acting designation appears; whether the 120-day report touches IC equities; whether S.2202 moves now that the director has a second portfolio. **Prior (Sep 9):** **The 25th-anniversary verdict, and the office itself goes into play.** NPR's 9/11 piece has ex-CIA/SSCI official Steven Cash — now running The Steady State, 400+ former officials — saying *"We took a dive off the cliff in 2025. All the gains, I think, are gone."* Tim Weiner: Trump "swung a wrecking ball"; [[Pete Hegseth]], [[Kash Patel]], [[John Ratcliffe]] are "sycophants." [[Gary Peters]] wrote [[Jay Clayton]] that there is still no accounting of **"who was fired or for what purposes by Pulte,"** and ordered preservation of all counterterrorism records and personnel decisions. Same week: NBC reports growing calls to scrap [[ODNI]], *National Review* runs "Abolish the ODNI," and House members push to strengthen it — with **Cotton–Warner S.2202** (cap ODNI at 650, kill the National Intelligence Managers, abolish NCSC into the FBI) as the live vehicle. [[FISA Section 702]] still lapsed. 🟡 Peters letter is single-source, date not pinned past September. **Watch:** whether Clayton answers Peters; whether S.2202 moves. **NEW (Aug 3):** **CLAYTON SWORN IN** — [[Jay Clayton]] took the oath as DNI on Monday, August 3, formally ending [[Bill Pulte]]'s ~40-day acting tenure ("booting Pulte" — The Hill); he inherits an [[ODNI]] roughly 30% smaller after five layoff rounds executed entirely under acting authority, before any Senate-confirmed leadership was in place. **Watch:** whether Clayton reverses, ratifies, or absorbs the cuts; where Pulte lands (and whether the data-targeting playbook travels with him); Clayton's posture on [[FISA Section 702 Renewal 2026]]. Prior (Aug 1): **Handover scheduled** — [[Bill Pulte]] announced Saturday that the ODNI transition to [[Jay Clayton]] begins Monday, August 3, reversing reports of a hold of up to two weeks; Clayton expected sworn in early in the week, closing the oath gap at ~6 days (OANN). MAGA-media framing cast the exit as a completed "deep state purge." **Watch:** verify the swearing-in actually happens; any last-gap actions. Prior (July 30): **The exit that wasn't** — more than two days after confirmation, the White House had not sworn Clayton in, leaving [[Bill Pulte]] as acting DNI with the acting-director authorities (declassification mandate, unilateral personnel power) intact; Senate Democrats and some Republicans questioned the delay (The Hill; MS NOW). **Watch:** what Pulte executes during the gap; the eventual swearing-in date. Prior (July 28): **NEW (July 28):** **[[Jay Clayton]] CONFIRMED 51–47** on party lines Tuesday evening, no Democratic votes — ending [[Bill Pulte]]'s ~40-day acting tenure, but only after Pulte pushed through a **fifth layoff round** that leaves ODNI roughly **30% smaller** than when he arrived (The Hill). The caretaker window closed with the demolition complete; Clayton (ex-SEC chair, until now US attorney SDNY) inherits the gutted agency. **Watch:** whether Clayton reverses any cuts or the Norton installation; fate of the declassification mandate; NCTC rebuild before the midterms. Prior (July 10): **Third purge wave** — [[Bill Pulte]] announced on X, Friday night, that ODNI "has begun" a third round of "reducing redundant, or non-critical, personnel," with **no headcount disclosed** and no notice to oversight committees; he claims the IC is "operating more efficiently and effectively than ever before." Running toll: ~51 removed in June (6 fired, ~45 detailees returned), dozens of termination notices July 2, now an untallied third round — three purges in ~5 weeks. *The Hill* reports the cuts are **concentrated in the National Counterterrorism Center**, the post-9/11 fusion body ODNI was built around; Pulte is the first DNI with no intelligence background and no prior clearance, and still runs FHFA concurrently. The "deep state" rationale of July 2 has reverted to bureaucratic "redundancy" language — the two justifications swapping in and out over the same operation. Prior (July 2): MS NOW — a **second purge wave**: dozens more termination notices went out Thursday July 2 (distinct from June's ~51), with targets described by an intelligence official as people "they believe are deep state" and justified by claims — disputed by four former senior intelligence officials — that they withheld "complete pictures of available intelligence"; landing 24 hours after the declassification mandate, the sequence reads purge-then-declassify ahead of the midterms. Prior (July 1): Trump publicly told acting DNI [[Bill Pulte]] he can "**declassify whatever you want**" — "almost everything," including 2020-election records — during a caretaker tenure Trump pegged at "a month or two," while slow-walking [[Jay Clayton]]'s confirmation hearing to "two weeks" out; declassification is ODNI's most consequential unilateral power, now handed to an unconfirmed loyalist ahead of the midterms. Prior (June 26): Pulte installs **Christina Norton** — the RNC's former election-integrity director who ran the GOP's 2024 poll-watcher operation (featuring [[Jack Posobiec]]) — as **ODNI chief of staff**, despite no intelligence experience; Democrats warn it positions the agency to manufacture midterm "foreign funding" claims. Prior (June 24): purge quantified — **~51 removed** since [[Bill Pulte]] took over June 19 (**6 fired outright, ~45 detailees returned** to home agencies); deputy DNI for mission integration **Will Ruger placed on administrative leave**; the National Counterterrorism Center group was spared; Pulte rebuffed deeper cuts as "enough for now"; [[Jim Himes]] called it "bipartisan outrage," he and [[Mark Warner]] warned against firing "hundreds." Prior (June 22–23): mass-purge launch + Warner bill to **bar unconfirmed acting DNIs**; [[Tom Cotton]] defended cuts, [[Thom Tillis]] called Pulte "an incompetent sycophant"; **[[FISA Section 702]] lapsed June 12** (first time ever); SAVE America Act hostage bundle. **Watch:** second wave; whether cuts reach [[Iran War 2026]] analysts | [[DNI Succession News Log]] | | **[[Grand Conspiracy Probe]]** | June 3, 2026 | No major developments since May 15; FBI interviews of CIA officers at Langley continue; probe run by Miami USAO; Brennan DOJ referral from Jordan still pending | [[Grand Conspiracy Probe]] | | **[[Cassidy Hutchinson News Log]]** | October 9, 2026 | **NEW watcher (Oct 8):** **DOJ takes the January 6 committee's star witness to a grand jury.** The Civil Rights Division ([[Harmeet Dhillon]]), not the D.C. USAO, is presenting evidence that [[Cassidy Hutchinson]] lied to Congress in her 2022 testimony; no indictment returned; statements at issue unreported; the referral is [[Barry Loudermilk]]'s, co-signed by [[Jim Jordan]] (Mar 2026); the probe has been public since April (NYT), and on Sep 24 she told a federal court she would take the Fifth. She is the one star witness Biden's 2025 pardons did not cover. **Watch:** indictment vs. declination vs. no-bill; statute and statements charged; the 2027 limitations deadline; spillover to Cheney or committee staff. | [[Cassidy Hutchinson]] | | **[[DOE v. Smith College]]** | June 3, 2026 | DOE OCR investigation continues; Washington Monthly published deep-dive May 28 detailing administration strategy; first application of biological-sex-only Title IX theory to women's college admissions; legal experts maintain Title IX exempts private undergraduate admissions; implications for Wellesley, Bryn Mawr, Barnard, Mount Holyoke | [[DOE v. Smith College]] | | **[[Kash Patel FBI Plane Abuse]]** | June 3, 2026 | Patel's girlfriend Alexis Wilkins sued MS NOW for defamation June 1 over FBI-resource-abuse reporting; ex-FBI agents launched employee support group providing free legal, mental health, and job placement for agents fired or struggling under Patel; "Operation Spring Cleaning" (615 indictments) rolled out as PR counter-narrative; whistleblower-driven congressional probes continue | [[Kash Patel FBI Plane Abuse]] | | **[[ICE Shooting of Ruben Martinez]]** | June 3, 2026 | Bodycam video released contradicting ICE claims — shows vehicle stationary with brake lights on when Martinez was shot; Texas Tribune deep-dive published May 4; [[American Oversight]] FOIA continuing; no civil suit filed yet but litigation anticipated | [[ICE Shooting of Ruben Martinez]] | ### Courts & Litigation | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **Macron v. Owens Defamation** | June 3, 2026 | No change; Delaware Superior Court case active; 22 counts; Owens' motion to dismiss still pending (filed Sep 12, argues "libel tourism" / no Delaware jurisdiction); no settlement talks | [[Macron v. Owens Defamation Lawsuit]] | | **[[Paxton v. Powered by People]]** | June 3, 2026 | Paxton won TX-Sen runoff May 26 (63.8%–36.2% over Cornyn); faces Talarico in November general; race moved from Likely R to **Lean R** by Cook; Talarico raised \$40M+ in primary, \$600K in 2 hours after Paxton win; Republicans bracing for money problems; dueling lawsuits continue — question of whether Paxton leaves AG office before or after resolution | [[Paxton v. Powered by People]] | ### Corruption & Self-Dealing | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **Trump Corruption** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 13):** **Guilfoyle resigns at the White House's request, six days after the credit-card story.** Press secretary Katie Zacharia confirmed the ask from the podium at her first briefing; Trump had said the day before he was "looking at" firing her. Three WSJ threads were live: the $100K AmEx solicitation during confirmation, promoting a Greek construction/energy company and admitting its lobbyist to private diplomatic meetings, and recordings about private jets and luxury hospitality. [[Gregory Meeks]] asked Oct 10 that she testify under oath; State IG review is **single-sourced** (one unnamed official via AP) and no formal investigation is confirmed. **Also NEW (Oct 7–10):** **[[ABC News]] published a $6B analysis of the Trump sons' defense holdings, deleted it, then republished it gutted** — stated reason "premature" publication. Counted [[1789 Capital]]'s $2.5B [[Anduril]] stake, [[Unusual Machines]], [[Powerus]], [[Vulcan Elements]], [[Foundation Future Industries]]; the load-bearing detail is that Unusual Machines and Powerus had **no** government contracts before the brothers invested. **Watch:** whether State IG opens formally; whether Meeks gets testimony; whether ABC explains. | [[Trump Corruption News Log]] | | **Crypto-Political Machine** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 5):** **The CFTC files the rules the Senate refused to pass.** Three weeks after CLARITY cloture failed 49–50, the [[CFTC]] proposed **Regulation CTX** (leveraged/margined/financed crypto, FCM intermediation pulling in BSA/AML, 28-day actual-delivery exemption) and **Regulation CAM** (optional crypto-asset-market registration, manipulation-prone product ban, proof of reserves on omnibus accounts), both out for **60-day comment**. Chairman [[Michael Selig]]: the rules would "codify a pathway" for national oversight — *codify* being a legislature's verb. **The spot-market gap survives**, which was the whole reason the industry wanted the statute; CFTC officials concede they don't know how large the residual spot market is. [[SEC]] is running its parallel custody and tokenization work with **two commissioners**. **Watch:** comment-period close (~Dec 4); whether anyone moves on spot authority. | [[Crypto-Political Machine News Log]] | | **[[World Liberty Financial]]** | October 7, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 1):** **WLFI starts paying holders in [[USD1]] to lock tokens and keep voting.** $1.25M USD1 pool over 180 days for holders who lock WLFI ≥180 days **and** vote at least every 90 days; funded from WLFI treasury, protocol-owned liquidity fees and World Liberty Markets revenue; variable APR, no fixed rate. Underlying "Governance Engagement Incentive Program" posted Sep 14, approved late September. Three effects in one product: paid quorum around a controlling insider stake; a 180-day float contraction ahead of the 2028 unlock; and rewards denominated in the venture's **own stablecoin**, so no outside capital need enter. Context: conditional **OCC national trust charter Aug 14, 2026** — Warren called Trump "the first President in history to approve, operate, and supervise his own bank." **Watch:** whether OCC conditions reach treasury disbursements of this kind; staking uptake vs. float. **NEW watcher (Sep 29):** Split out of Trump Corruption so the venture gets its own feed. Standing watch: the ~$800M founder stake's May 2026 vesting contract (**first unlock 2028**), USD1 reserve composition and attestations, the UAE stake and [[Justin Sun]]'s position, the unshipped roadmap (lending, tokenized Treasuries, "strategic token reserve"), insider realizations against the reported $1.2B+ family extraction, and OCC/SEC/CFTC posture | [[World Liberty Financial News Log]] | | **[[Executive Branch Club]]** | September 29, 2026 | **NEW watcher (Sep 29):** The access-selling instrument no campaign-finance tracker can see — membership is a private transaction, so none of it is FEC-reportable and the daily money sweep is blind to it. Standing watch: fee tiers and roster, which officials attend alongside parties with business before them, deals traced to club introductions, [[1789 Capital]] overlap, and Hatch Act / gift-rule / FARA exposure | [[Executive Branch Club News Log]] | | **[[Colombier Acquisition Corp. III]]** | October 6, 2026 | **NEW watcher (Oct 6):** Malik's third blank-check company: $302M in trust, no target yet, a board that includes Trump Jr., Ingraham, Palihapitiya and Masters, and a stated sector list (defense tech, rare earths, prediction markets, energy, space) that overlaps the areas where federal decisions moved [[1789 Capital]] holdings. Standing watch: letter of intent or merger agreement (8-K), the target's federal-contract and regulatory exposure, redemption or extension votes, and new 13D/13G holders. Deadline Feb 5, 2028 | [[Colombier Acquisition Corp. III]] | | **[[Steve Witkoff]]** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 10) — first dated entry on the page:** **The envoy hosts the Ukraine trilateral talks in Miami, where [[The Witkoff Group]] is headquartered.** Witkoff called the session "constructive" and "productive"; by his account it involved the E3, the European Commission, Ukraine and NATO, covering energy resilience, grain exports, security guarantees, reconstruction and EU accession. No agreement reported. **No conflict allegation is made** — the venue and date go in the record because holding the calendar is this log's purpose. Friction on the record: [[Volodymyr Zelensky]] criticised the lifting of Russian diesel sanctions; Kaja Kallas said the EU would not ease pressure; [[Marco Rubio]] warned stalemates can end "through escalation." Portfolio is widening, not narrowing — Ukraine here, Gaza implementation continuing with [[Jared Kushner]]. **Watch:** divestment vs. announcement; any congressional document request. | [[Steve Witkoff News Log]] | | **[[Alex Witkoff]] / [[Zach Witkoff]]** | September 30, 2026 | **NEW watcher (Sep 30):** The operating layer of the Witkoff conflict structure, split from the father. Alex runs [[The Witkoff Group]] (sole control since Steve entered government — the same father-to-son handoff [[Howard Lutnick]] used at [[Cantor Fitzgerald]]) and pitched the Qatar Investment Authority on a ~$4B credit fund while his father mediated Gaza terms; Zach is CEO of [[World Liberty Financial]], which sold 49% to a [[Tahnoon bin Zayed]] vehicle four days before inauguration. Both co-own the [[Executive Branch Club]]. Neither files an OGE form and none of it is FEC-reportable. **Watch:** revival of the sovereign-fund pitch under a new name; any son named in a subpoena or document request; any legal theory creating a filing obligation. | [[Witkoff Sons News Log]] | ### Tech Oligarchy & Defense | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **Palantir / Karp** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 8):** **"Sticky is a metaphor for parasitic" — Karp at Zeta Live '26.** He recounted Palantir's commercial chief telling him *"Please stop talking to Palantirians about how big [[Palantir Foundry]] is going to be. It's depressing, and everybody knows you're out of touch,"* said investors had been asking "Where's the parasite?", and offered the missile line: "Your B-minus missile is a triple-plus with this, and your A-plus missile is useless." The appearance is **sales** — [[Zeta Global]] has committed to rebuilding its Data Cloud on Foundry under a seven-year deal its CEO values at $100M+/yr — and the self-deprecation is a growth claim in a humility costume. Keep the vocabulary: he states the bear case against enterprise lock-in more bluntly than any critic, then sells the lock-in. **Watch:** Q3 earnings date (defense-corp beat). | [[Alex Karp News Log]] | | **[[Thiel Argentina Move]]** | September 20, 2026 | **NEW (Sep 9):** **Covenant exits stealth — and Founders Fund, a16z and 8VC are on the same missile cap table.** The 2024-founded firm unveiled the **Anthem** ground-launched cruise missile, a **Grand Prairie, TX** factory, **$250M+ across three rounds at $1B+**, with [[Founders Fund]], [[Andreessen Horowitz]], [[8VC]], Lux, Aleph and [[Lightspeed Venture Partners]] named. 200kg+ payload, 200+ test flights, pitched against RTX's Tomahawk on cost; Army OTA plus ~$70M Navy RCO cost-share for a maritime variant; serial production early 2027. **The defense-tech thesis has arrived at ordnance** — the least software-differentiated thing in the portfolio and the thing the Pentagon is short of. Production-ramp figures vary between outlets; treat as approximate. **Also Sep 12:** *Buenos Aires Times* analysis names what Thiel is buying — Milei's **"Super RIGI"** (15% income tax, zero export duties, free currency disposal, international arbitration, for investments over **$1B**, aimed at data centers) and a proposed legal form for **companies run by algorithms with no employees**. 🟡 Single-source opinion piece; verify the tax terms against Argentine government sources. **NEW (Aug 28):** **Argentina's Congress holds a five-hour hearing on Thiel — and he doesn't come, nor does anyone from [[Javier Milei]]'s cabinet.** Convened by opposition deputy Juan Marino with six co-sponsors, ~32 specialists testified on Thiel's investments, data-center water and power draw, and his links to Argentine business and government, under a "tecnofascismo" banner; empty name plates were set for Thiel, Milei and cabinet. Bloomberg adds a reported ~$12M Buenos Aires mansion and a Vista Energy stake, and unnamed sources describing Argentina as a refuge play. **Aug 29:** hundreds protested outside the house demanding he leave. **Watch:** whether the hearing record becomes a 2027 campaign asset; the AI-companies bill and the gutted foreign-land-ownership law. **Prior (Aug 19):** **"You shall not pass"** — Thiel **cancelled** his Sept 1–2 "Vientos de Cambio" appearance alongside [[Javier Milei]] four days after protesters dressed as **Gandalf** massed outside his \$12M Barrio Parque mansion over the **\$76M Vista Energy** (Vaca Muerta) stake. Organizers insisted it was "scheduling and logistical reasons completely unrelated" to the protest. UPI also fills in the ledger: the April Casa Rosada meeting was the **fourth** Thiel–Milei encounter since 2024, plus Santiago Caputo and Economy Minister Luis Caputo — and a **3+ hour June 3 meeting with opposition leader Juan Grabois**. **Watch:** whether the Vista position holds in the Q3 13F, and whether Thiel appears publicly in Argentina before the 2027 cycle | [[Thiel Argentina Move]] | | **Peter Thiel** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 8–9):** **The closed-door Nashville lectures leak, and Thiel names [[Barack Obama]] and [[Pope Leo XIV]].** POLITICO's Decoded obtained recordings of the same series logged Sep 16 as wanded and sealed, and published his claim that AI's critics are insincere: "Many people know that AI is politically unpopular and want to leverage that to boost their own popularity." On Obama he is reported arguing the Democratic Party has no ideas but can still rally support by opposing AI; the pope attack is reportedly at least his fourth, making it a campaign rather than an aside. **The leak is the event** — three weeks from sealed room to trade publication, and the sealed-room content differs from his public line not in kind but in *who he names*. Quotes originate in one outlet's exclusive audio; no lecture date given. **Watch:** whether Thiel disputes the recordings; further lecture stops. | [[Peter Thiel News Log]] | | **[[Google DeepMind]] Talent Exodus** | June 24, 2026 | **NEW:** In one week of June 2026 DeepMind lost two marquee researchers to rivals — Nobel laureate [[John Jumper]] (AlphaFold) to [[Anthropic]] (announced June 19) and Gemini co-lead [[Noam Shazeer]] (Transformer co-author) to [[OpenAI]] days earlier. Back-to-back exits drove a ~6–7% [[Alphabet]] stock drop (\$200B+ market cap erased) and "is internal faith collapsing?" coverage; drivers cited: product-alignment constraints + compute-allocation tension (chip reassignment from a Shazeer project). Watch for further senior departures + Anthropic's life-sciences buildout under Jumper | [[Google DeepMind]] | | **Pentagon AI / [[Anthropic]] Ban** | June 18, 2026 | DC Circuit written opinion still pending post-May 19 oral arguments; **June 15 DOJ filing** revealed the Pentagon replaced Anthropic with xAI's Grok on [[Project Maven]] for lethal targeting in Iran — 2,000 munitions to 2,000 targets in 96 hrs ("Operation Epic Fury"); Anthropic was cut specifically because it refused autonomous strike/mass-surveillance uses; the ban is now concretely consequential, not just contractual. 8 rival AI contracts proceeding; Anthropic still renting xAI's Colossus 1 for \$3–4B/yr | [[Anthropic]] | | **SpaceX IPO / Musk** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 13):** **The [[Supreme Court of the United States]] takes the [[DOGE]] FOIA case** — [[CREW]]'s suit for records of DOGE's early operations, the Court's second intervention in the same case and its first merits look at whether DOGE was ever subject to the [[Freedom of Information Act]]. [[CREW]] says DOGE was an agency; the administration says presidential advisory body. After the June 2025 order reining in Judge Cooper as too broad, Cooper ruled for CREW anyway and the D.C. Circuit affirmed; the petition also contests a deposition of acting administrator Amy Gleason. If the advisory-body theory holds, the operational record of the entity Musk personally stood up is **permanently outside FOIA**, and the precedent is portable. **Cert grant only** — no vote, no argument date, no word on whether production is stayed. Taken three weeks pre-midterm; nothing becomes public before the election. **Watch:** argument date; stay status. | [[Elon Musk News Log]] | | **[[California Forever]]** | June 3, 2026 | Draft EIR expected spring 2026 for public comment; LAFCO processing estimated 6–18 months after EIR completion; California Forever also pursuing "Maritime Prosperity Zone" federal designation for shipbuilding initiative; community opposition continues | [[California Forever]] | | **The Quest for 90 Gigawatts** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 4–12):** **The cost shift goes national just as the federal remedy dies.** Within twelve days of the Senate killing H.R. 9340 57–43, NPR (Oct 4), Bloomberg (Oct 10) and Foreign Policy (Oct 12) all published national accountings of data centers' effect on prices, water and land. National press is the **fourth** venue to arrive, after the rate cases, the statehouses and Congress — i.e. after the legislative vehicle it would have pressured is gone, three weeks out. **The binding constraint is now measurement, not policy:** every live instrument (CPUC tariffs due Jan 1 2028, Duke/PSO rate cases, NERC CLO standards due at FERC Dec 31) runs on wholesale and interconnection cost, where numbers are rigorous — but the electoral argument needs a residential monthly figure, and only the utilities are supplying one (OG&E: a *benefit* of $1.83/mo by 2027 rising to $6.84/mo by 2036). **Watch:** any commission ordering a residential-attribution study; PJM 2028/29 auction with no price collar; whether the land dimension acquires any instrument at all. | [[The Quest for 90 Gigawatts]] | | **Sacks AI/Crypto Czar** | October 7, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 4):** **The czar job goes to a name that was not on the list, and Sacks lands exactly where he wanted — outside it.** [[Jay Clayton]], the sitting DNI, chairs the new [[Super Intelligence Force]]; **none of Axios's five** got the chair, and two of them ([[Scott Kupor]], [[Emil Michael]]) are vice chairs under him. Sacks is listed as an **external adviser** alongside [[Condoleezza Rice]] — no confirmation, no disclosure obligation in any reporting reviewed, no 120-day deliverable, and the Force's anti-overregulation mandate is his own argument. ⚠️ WGCU/NPR characterizes Sacks as backing AI-risk warnings and slowdowns, which contradicts the primary record in this log — treat as a reporting error pending a second outlet. **Watch:** whether the adviser slot carries any ethics obligation; whether the 120-day report reads like his doctrine. **Prior (Sep 21):** **Five names for the czar job, and Sacks is not one of them.** Axios names [[Scott Kupor]], [[Sriram Krishnan]], [[Chamath Palihapitiya]], Sean Cairncross and [[Emil Michael]]; people close to Sacks say he "likely won't take up the mantle again." Four of five sit inside his own network. Same reporting has the White House recasting slowdown advocates as "doomers" — the argument Sacks made on Sep 12–13, now adopted at presidential level. **Watch:** who is actually appointed, and whether the AI Force gets a budget line. | [[David Sacks News Log]] | | **Pentagon `gc_` Influence Ops** | September 23, 2026 | **NEW (Sep 15):** **A legal frame is finally put on the SGE network — Hatch Act, Smith-Mundt, Privacy Act.** The Grayzone names four Pentagon-linked figures running political influence accounts and details Jennica Pounds's **"DSA Explorer"** (launched Aug 28), a database naming [[Democratic Socialists of America]], BLM and CODEPINK affiliates as "potential unregistered foreign agents" while disclaiming that the inferences are "not facts." Personnel facts corroborated by AP, New Republic and [[Washington Post]]; **the legal characterization is single-source and from a partisan outlet** | [[Pentagon Influence Operations - gc_ Generation]] | | **Vance / Fraud Task Force** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 13):** **Vance follows Trump into Tyler, Texas for [[Ken Paxton]], and the attack is personal rather than political.** Billed locally as a historic East Texas midterm rally; nationally framed as Vance following the president into the same race, with the "freak" framing aimed at [[James Talarico]]. **This revises the Sep 29 division-of-labor reading** — Texas was supposed to sit on Trump's side of the split, so both principals working one ruby-red Senate seat three weeks out is either a breakdown of the split or a reclassification of the race, and it is a tell about internal polling that no public survey has to confirm. Register also shifted: the programmatic "nationalize your races" persona gave way to an attack on the opponent's character. Quotes are secondary characterisation, not a retrieved transcript. **Watch:** whether Trump returns to Texas; whether the split holds anywhere else. | [[JD Vance News Log]] | | **Andreessen / a16z** | October 7, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 1):** **[[Greg Brockman]] walks away from [[Leading the Future]] with half his pledge unpaid, leaving a16z holding the brand.** $25M of a promised $50M paid; his June Slack message to OpenAI staff: *"I feel terrible about the fact that LTF keeps reflecting on the company and become so much of a distraction for people here,"* with "no plans to donate more at this time." [[Andreessen Horowitz]] is now the principal remaining patron — and cannot exit, because for a16z the AI policy position *is* the portfolio thesis. [[Greg Casar]]: *"The tables have turned on AI preemption, on data centers, on AI safety, and now on AI super PACs. The people are beating back the money."* Guardrails Alliance launched as a counter-vehicle. ⚠️ Figure and quote trace to NYT reporting not read directly; carried consistently by Gizmodo, Punchbowl, TNW. **Watch:** whether a16z backfills the $25M, and whether any LTF recipient returns money. **Prior (Sep 25):** **The AI super PAC endorses four Democrats — under a different committee's name.** [[Leading the Future]] backs Sykes (OH), Horsford (NV), Morelle (NY) and Stanton (AZ) through [[Think Big PAC]], "six figures in each district," nine days after putting $2M behind four Senate Republicans under its own name. Segmentation, not bipartisanship. 170+ Democratic organizers had urged leadership to refuse the money. ⚠️ Axios reports $31M on hand / $10M transferred; FEC filings as of Sep 24 show a $17.5M transfer — unreconciled. **Watch:** whether any of the four returns it, and which number the filings support. | [[Marc Andreessen News Log]] | | **Lonsdale / 8VC** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 11–12):** **"Our society today is too soft" — Lonsdale defends [[Palmer Luckey]]'s case for public executions.** When Luckey argued executions should be "public and brutal" rather than "private and medicalized," Lonsdale was the defense-world voice behind him: *"Palmer Luckey and George Washington are not barbaric,"* adding that softness "cause[s] our fellow citizens harm." **Same move as the Sep 17 AI-safety entry, different target:** the restraint is the real danger, the people urging restraint are the real problem, and a historical citation relocates the position into the American mainstream. Context: [[Pete Hegseth]]'s announced execution livestream had already been rejected by Speaker Mike Johnson and Sen. Thom Tillis, so this is not defending administration policy against the left. **Single-sourced** (one outlet's reporting of his posts). **Watch:** whether the execution or livestream proceeds. | [[Joe Lonsdale News Log]] | | **Luckey / Anduril** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 11–12):** **"Public and brutal": Luckey defends public executions as the Pentagon prepares to livestream one.** A Sunday-night X thread — *"I have been outspoken on wanting public executions for over a decade"* — argued the state's monopoly on violence should be **visible**, that to "revel in the death of those who truly deserve it" is "normal, good, and aligned with our natural and national order," that lethal injection "makes needless executions more likely," and that concealing executions is itself a feature of fascist states, citing George Washington. [[Joe Lonsdale]] backed him. **This is ideology, not a gaffe** — the domestic-facing version of "you can't fight fair," argued with a theory of legitimacy by a contractor selling autonomous weapons to the government that would do the executing. Opposition was bipartisan and from the administration's own side (Johnson, Tillis; Trump reportedly doubtful), so he was defending a position the Speaker had just rejected. **Watch:** whether the livestream happens. | [[Palmer Luckey News Log]] | | **Helberg / Pax Silica** | September 20, 2026 | **NEW (Sep 3):** **Pax Silica acquires a school.** [[JD Vance]] and [[Marco Rubio]] launched **Foundry School** in Washington with Helberg delivering remarks — a State Department–**Stanford** advanced-manufacturing workforce program billed as a flagship Pax Silica product. Reported structure: **17 sessions in two phases**, regional sessions at **seven partner universities** from September 2026, then a ten-session Stanford core from **January 2027**, with a curriculum built for adoption across Pax Silica economies. **This is the first thing Pax Silica *produces* rather than asks countries to sign** — and a curriculum adopted by member-economy institutions outlives any signatory list, routed through a private university rather than a treaty body. 🟡 state.gov and Washington Times fetches returned empty; the **17/7/Jan-2027 figures come from search extracts** and need re-verification before being cited as numbers. **Standing count (ITIF, Aug):** 25 Declaration signatories vs. **35** on the separate AI Opportunity Statement — the gap is the tell on how the exclusivity push is landing. **NEW (Aug 14):** **From membership to exclusivity** — Reuters obtained a **draft State letter** to the **35** "AI Opportunity Statement" signatories saying they cannot hold [[Pax Silica]] standing while joining China's **WAICO** (founded Shanghai, July 16, 29 nations). *"To be part of everything is to be part of nothing."* It is **undated, unsent, names no penalty and never names China**. Trigger: **[[Kazakhstan]]**, the only confirmed dual member — and the one holding the rare earths, tungsten and uranium the framework exists to secure. Real lever is **chip-access withholding on 2–4 year replacement cycles**, not expulsion. Manila Times editorialized against the "us or them" ultimatum Aug 20. **Watch:** whether it is ever sent, what Kazakhstan does, and whether the 35 names ever surface | [[Jacob Helberg News Log]] | | **Schmidt / defense AI** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 6):** **An Army bomb plant will load the warheads for Schmidt's drones.** McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (Oklahoma) will build, load and deliver combat-ready explosive payloads for [[Perennial Autonomy]]; Perennial supplies airframes and guidance. Ribbon-cutting held; the Army disclosed **no** models, quantities, value or delivery dates. **The structural content is the division of labour:** the state loads the warhead onto the billionaire's airframe — splitting the weapon so the regulated, politically visible half (explosives manufacture, permits, safety record, a congressional district) sits on the public books while autonomy and targeting stay proprietary. Same trade as the Relativity move: let government own the capital-intensive and liability-bearing, keep the layer that scales. Context, press-reported: $500M-ceiling JIATF-401 contract, 8,000-drone Gauntlet II order, 13,000 Merops at ~$15K each, 48 to Lithuania. **Single-sourced**, no PIID or federal award record. **Watch:** a contract notice that lets any of this be re-derived. | [[Eric Schmidt News Log]] | | **Yass / Susquehanna Insider Case** | September 23, 2026 | **NEW (Sep 17):** **The Hong Kong expansion gets an address.** [[Susquehanna International Group]] leases **three floors, ~52,000 sq ft** in CK Asset's Cheung Kong Center II in Central — the concrete form of the Sep 2 plan to triple its Hong Kong footprint for China ETF hiring, signed two days after the injunction in the insider case was dissolved. Single-source. The decoupling politics [[Jeff Yass]] funds and the business he is building remain on opposite sides of the same trade | [[Jeff Yass News Log]] | | **Anthropic IPO** | June 29, 2026 | **NEW:** Confidential S-1 filed with SEC on **June 1, 2026**; listing window ~**October 2026**; would be the first AI company to debut at ~\$1T valuation after \$65B Series H-1 round (May) at \$965B post-money; annualized revenue run rate ~\$30B+ (up from ~\$9B end of 2025). Complication: U.S. government directed Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access for foreign nationals in June; Pentagon ban story ([[Anthropic]] cut from [[Project Maven]] for refusing autonomous strike uses, replaced by xAI's Grok) adds regulatory/political risk layer. **Watch:** SEC review timeline; whether foreign-model-access restrictions expand; pricing and underwriter selection | [[Anthropic]] | | **OpenAI IPO** | June 29, 2026 | **NEW:** Confidential S-1 filed **May 22, 2026**; originally targeting Q4 2026 listing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading. **June 25–26 pivot:** NYT/Bloomberg report OpenAI now **leaning toward 2027** — [[Sam Altman]] called a sub-\$1T valuation a "non-starter"; bankers cited SpaceX post-IPO volatility and tech-stock weakness as dampeners; Morgan Stanley and Goldman shares fell on delay news. Revenue ~\$2B/month but projected **\$14B losses in 2026**; profitability not expected until ~2030. Still must complete **for-profit restructuring** from nonprofit. Anthropic expected to go public first. **Watch:** whether the \$830B pre-IPO round closes; restructuring completion; whether Altman accepts a lower valuation or holds for 2027 | [[OpenAI]] | | **Paramount / WBD Merger** | August 11, 2026 | NEW (July-Aug): 12 state AGs (CA, AZ, CO, CT, MA, MN, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OR, WA) led by Rob Bonta filed antitrust suit in N.D. Cal. to block the \$110.9B acquisition; U.S. District Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin issued a temporary restraining order halting the deal for two weeks; Paramount seeking 3-day evidentiary hearing week of Aug 17 or 24 on preliminary injunction. DOJ cleared the deal without conditions June 12; EU also cleared; WBD shareholders approved April 2026. Deal would place CBS News and CNN under common ownership controlled by [[David Ellison]] / [[Larry Ellison]] — two of three legacy US news operations under one tech-oligarch owner aligned with the Trump administration. Watch: preliminary injunction ruling; whether deal closes Q3 2026 as planned or gets blocked | [[Paramount Skydance - Warner Bros. Discovery Deal]] | ### Policy & Legislation | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **CA Billionaires Tax** | June 18, 2026 | **1.6M signatures** collected (~2x threshold); **certification deadline June 24**; NBER study (Saez/Zucman, May 25) directly rebuts exodus threat: even if every billionaire left overnight, state would need ~25 years to lose as much revenue as the tax raises; >80% of CA billionaire wealth sits in unrealized gains ([[Buy, Borrow, Die]] at scale); CA billionaires hold \$2T+ (~50% of state GDP) but paid only ~0.2% in state income tax; Newsom opposes; Building a Better California (Brin/Schmidt) \$102M war chest; Thiel pre-empted by leaving CA late 2025 | [[California Billionaires Tax]] | | **Paid Political Influencers** | October 14, 2026 | **NEW (Oct 9–13):** **The vendor takes the blame and the campaign takes the benefit.** An NYT investigation (Oct 9) found dozens of TikTok accounts posting favourable [[James Talarico]] clips were paid — reportedly **$4 per 1,000 views** — and that marketing firm Frontier Media **claimed responsibility**; the campaign says it did not pay the creators. **This is exactly the fact pattern AB 1130, the Washington copy and the Illinois bill exist to address:** if a vendor absorbs the attribution, nobody with a filing obligation ever touches the transaction, and the campaign's denial is probably literally true and completely beside the point. **Texas has neither statute**, so today the answer in that jurisdiction is yes. The $4/1,000 rate is a **performance** rate, not a flat fee — economically an ad buy, legally organic enthusiasm, and a harder disclosure problem than the flat-fee podcaster case (Sep 20) because there is no contract value to report. **Single-sourced at origin**; secondary coverage is partisan; no complaint or enforcement reported. **Watch:** any FEC or Texas Ethics Commission complaint. | [[Paid Political Influencers]] | ### War & Geopolitics | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **[[Iran War 2026]]** | June 18, 2026 | **[[FISA Section 702]] lapsed June 12** (first ever); **June 16 G7 (France):** Trump reversed on regime change and uranium removal, praised new Iranian leadership, MOU signed — the most significant diplomatic shift since the war began Feb 28; Grok/[[Project Maven]] disclosure (June 15 DOJ filing) confirmed AI-enabled targeting killed across 2,000 targets in 96 hrs; ceasefire holds but Strait of Hormuz dual blockade continues; war powers clock dispute unresolved | [[Iran War 2026]] | | **[[Mali]] / [[Africa Corps]] Crisis** | June 3, 2026 | **April 25 coordinated JNIM-FLA offensive** — largest since 2012 rebellion; car bomb killed Defense Minister Sadio Camara; [[JNIM]] declared "total siege" of Bamako (checkpoints on key roads, fuel/food disrupted); Malian army + Africa Corps regained some border sections as of June 1; al-Qaeda affiliate + Tuareg separatists cooperating for first time; regime survival closely tied to Russian military presence | [[2026 Mali Attacks]] | ### Political Violence | Story | Last Updated | Next Milestone | Page | |-------|-------------|----------------|------| | **[[WHCD Shooting]]** | June 3, 2026 | Allen pleaded not guilty May 11 to all 4 counts incl. attempted presidential assassination (life sentence possible); detained pending trial; DOJ recusal briefing due **June 22**; next hearing **June 29** before Judge McFadden; defense motion to disqualify AG Blanche and USAO Pirro as victims/witnesses still pending | [[WHCD Shooting]] | --- ## How This Works - **Every tracked story** lives where it naturally belongs in the KB (Events/, Legislation/, People/, etc.) - Each tracked page has the `active-tracking` tag in its YAML frontmatter - Each tracked page includes a **Development Log** section — a chronological table where new updates get appended - Each tracked page includes a **Next Steps to Track** section listing upcoming milestones - **This dashboard** is the single view into what's active and what needs checking ## Adding a New Story 1. Create or update the relevant KB page with new developments 2. Add `active-tracking` to the page's tags 3. Add a `## Development Log` section with a date/development/source table 4. Add a `## Next Steps to Track` section with upcoming milestones 5. Add a row to the Active Stories table above ## Retiring a Story When a story reaches resolution (verdict, legislation signed/defeated, investigation closed): 1. Move the row from Active Stories to the Resolved section below 2. Add a final Development Log entry noting the resolution 3. Optionally remove the `active-tracking` tag (or keep for historical reference) --- ## Resolved | Story | Resolved | Outcome | Page | |-------|----------|---------|------| | **Makary FDA Ouster** | May 12, 2026 | Makary resigned after FDA authorized fruit-flavored vapes against his objection; refused to publicly defend position before Congress; Kyle Diamantas now acting commissioner; tenure marked by drug rejections, staff departures, failure to deliver promised mifepristone safety review | [[Marty Makary]] | | **Musk v. OpenAI Trial** | May 18, 2026 | Advisory jury unanimously dismissed all claims on statute-of-limitations grounds (<2 hrs deliberation); Judge Gonzalez Rogers adopted verdict; merits never reached; Musk vows appeal; trial record includes: xAI distillation admission, Musk sought 90% control, Nadella testified Musk never raised concerns, Musk defied recall order for China trip with Trump | [[Musk v. OpenAI Trial]] |