# Global Economy Hub The front door to how the US economy connects to the rest of the world: the dollar system, trade and tariffs, the global institutions, central banks abroad, energy chokepoints, sanctions, and the major economies. Its companion page is [[State of the US Economy]], which covers the domestic read; this hub covers the world that read sits in. This is a cross-folder thematic map. The standing pages live in Concepts, Organizations, Events, Policy, and Countries; this page routes to them and holds the current global read. For the long view of US trade policy, start with [[US Trade Policy Timeline]]. ## The read — October 2026 **The world is tightening together.** Through September the big central banks were raising rates, not cutting: | Central bank | Policy rate | Last move | |---|---|---| | [[Federal Reserve]] | 3.75–4.00% | Hike, Sept 16 (12–0) | | [[European Central Bank]] | 2.50% (deposit rate) | Hike, Sept 10, effective Sept 16 (second hike of 2026) | | Bank of Japan | 1.25% | Hike, Sept 18 (7–2), highest since 1995 | | Bank of England | 3.75% | Held Sept 17 (6–3, three votes for a hike) | The common driver is the energy shock from the [[Iran War 2026]]. Brent crude settled near **$100** on Oct 6. Gulf flows are recovering unevenly through the [[Strait of Hormuz]] and [[Bab el-Mandeb]]: crude exports are back near prewar levels excluding Iran, while total oil flows sit at roughly four-fifths of prewar. **The IMF's last word is the July 8, 2026 update:** | Economy | 2026 | 2027 | |---|---|---| | World | 3.0% | 3.4% | | United States | 2.3% | 2.2% | | Euro area | 0.9% | 1.2% | | China | 4.6% | 4.1% | | Japan | 0.6% | 0.7% | The full October *World Economic Outlook* publishes **Oct 13**. When it lands, this table gets replaced. **China is exporting its way through a property bust.** Q2 GDP grew **4.3%** y/y, the slowest in more than three years. Real-estate investment is down **19.9%** for January through August, while exports rose **18.6%** y/y in August (yuan terms). Consumer prices are positive (CPI **+0.8%** in August), so China is not in deflation on that measure. See [[China]] and [[Trump China Trade War]]. **The dollar is strong.** The DXY index is around **102**, its highest since March 2025. The euro trades near $1.12, a 17-month low, and the yen near 158 per dollar; the yuan is about 6.70. Gold is around **$4,100–4,150/oz**, well off its late-January record near $5,600. *Sources:* [ECB key rates](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html) · [Nation Thailand on ECB](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40070896) · [Nation Thailand on BoJ](https://www.nationthailand.com/news/world/40071184) · [BabyPips on BoJ](https://www.babypips.com/news/headline-boj-rate-hike-september-2026-yen-falls-dovish-ueda) · [Bank of England Bank Rate](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp) · [Kael Tripton on the BoE vote](https://www.kaeltripton.com/latest/bank-rate-held-mpc-vote-split-three-for-rise/) · [Fed statement](https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm) · [Reuters via Business Recorder on oil](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443031/oil-prices-stable) · [Kpler](https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-how-mideast-gulf-crude-exports-returned-to-pre-war-levels) · [Reuters via EnergyNow](https://energynow.com/2026/10/oil-slides-more-than-2-as-recovering-gulf-exports-and-emergency-stock-release-ease-supply-fears/) · [IMF WEO Update, July 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026) · [Reuters via Kitco on the IMF](https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-07-08/imf-edges-2026-global-growth-forecast-lower-3-sees-rebound-2027) · [SCMP on China GDP](https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3360592/china-reports-43-gdp-growth-second-quarter-falling-short-expectations) · [Trivium China](https://triviumchina.com/2026/07/15/gdp-expands-at-slowest-rate-in-over-three-years/) · [NBS China CPI](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202609/t20260910_1965275.html) · [NBS China property](https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202609/t20260916_1965342.html) · [Business Today on China trade](https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2026/09/08/chinas-august-trade-up-19-export-grows-18/) · [Trading Economics on the dollar](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency) · [Reuters via KFGO on the dollar](https://kfgo.com/2026/10/06/dollar-holds-losses-as-markets-await-fed-minutes-speakers/) · [Fed H.10](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/current/) · [Trading Economics on gold](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold) · [Reuters via MyJoyOnline on gold](https://www.myjoyonline.com/gold-edges-lower-with-focus-on-fed-minutes-rate-path-clues/) ## The dollar and the monetary system - [[Dollar Dominance]] — reserve-currency status, the exorbitant privilege, and sanctions as the weaponized edge of the dollar - [[De-dollarization]] — the rival plumbing (CIPS, gold buying, BRICS) and why the dollar's share falls so slowly - [[Mar-a-Lago Accord]] — the Miran thesis that the strong dollar is a burden, and its Plaza Accord precedent - [[Treasury Market]] — the bond market as the one constraint the White House can't fire - [[Central Bank Swap Lines]] · [[Exchange Stabilization Fund]] — the Fed's and the Treasury's dollar lifelines, including the 2025 Argentina swap - [[Bretton Woods Conference]] → [[Nixon Shock]] — how the postwar dollar order was built, then cut loose from gold - [[Gold Standard]] · [[Gold]] · [[Fiat Currency]] — what money is anchored to, or not - [[Petrodollar]] — oil priced in dollars and recycled into Treasuries - [[Stablecoin]] · [[GENIUS Act]] · [[CBDC]] · [[Digital Euro]] — the private and public digital-dollar contest - [[Sovereign Wealth Fund]] · [[American State Capitalism]] · [[Government Equity Stakes Roster]] — the US state as an investor - [[Treasury General Account]] · [[Department of the Treasury]] · [[Scott Bessent]] - [[Financial System Timeline]] · [[Interest Rate Policy Timeline]] ## Trade and tariffs - **The current regime:** - [[Tariffs]] — the concept and its history - [[Liberation Day Tariffs]] — the April 2025 break - [[Learning Resources v. Trump]] and [[International Emergency Economic Powers Act]] — the Supreme Court's Feb 20, 2026 ruling against the IEEPA tariffs - [[Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs]] and [[Trade Act of 1974]] — the replacement authority - [[Section 232]] — the national-security tariffs that survived the ruling - [[De Minimis Exemption]] — the end of duty-free small parcels - [[Court of International Trade]] — the refund fight - **US–China:** [[Trump China Trade War]] · [[Trump-Xi China Summit 2026]] · [[GPU Export Controls]] · [[Critical Minerals]] · [[Rare Earth Elements]] · [[Permanent Magnets and the Rare-Earth Supply Chain]] - **North America:** [[USMCA]] · [[NAFTA]] - **History and ideas:** [[US Trade Policy Timeline]] · [[China Shock]] · [[Smoot-Hawley Tariff]] · [[Free Trade]] · [[Economic Nationalism]] · [[Neoliberalism]] · [[Ordoliberalism]] - **The scoreboard:** [[Trade Deficit]] - **The people:** [[Jamieson Greer]] · [[Howard Lutnick]] · [[Peter Navarro]] · [[Stephen Miran]] · [[Kevin Hassett]] ## Global institutions - [[International Monetary Fund]] · [[World Bank]] · [[World Trade Organization]] — the Bretton Woods trio - [[G7]] · [[G20]] · [[OECD]] — the rich-country clubs - [[BRICS]] · [[Eurasian Economic Union]] · [[Belt and Road Initiative]] — the alternative architecture - [[OPEC]] · [[International Energy Agency]] — the energy cartel and its counterweight - [[European Union]] · [[European Central Bank]] · [[African Union]] - [[World Economic Forum]] — Davos, and the right's favorite target ## Energy, chokepoints, and commodities - [[Iran War 2026]] · [[Strait of Hormuz]] · [[Bab el-Mandeb]] · [[East-West Crude Oil Pipeline]] - [[Gas Prices]] · [[Energy Sector]] · [[Energy Information Administration]] - [[Conflict Minerals Supply Chain]] · [[Critical Minerals]] ## Sanctions and economic statecraft - [[Sanctions Designation Pipeline]] · [[Secondary Sanctions]] - [[Russia and Iran Oil Sanctions Waivers 2026]] · [[Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026]] - [[Economic Boycott]] · [[Venezuela Oil Government Equity Stake]] ## The major economies Country pages own the bare country name. Ten of them carry an **Economy and the US link** section (size, US trade balance, Treasury holdings, the tariff regime as of October 2026, and the political frame): [[China]], [[Japan]], [[Taiwan]], [[South Korea]], [[India]], [[Germany]], [[United Kingdom]], [[Canada]], [[Saudi Arabia]], and [[Russia]]. The Americas: [[Mexico]] (the largest US trading partner, and the USMCA review), [[Brazil]] (the only country hit with a tariff explicitly tied to a court case, now a 25% Section 301 duty, and an Oct 25 runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula), and [[Argentina]] (Milei's experiment and the US Treasury lifeline). Other country pages include [[France]], [[Italy]], [[Iran]], and [[Venezuela]]. Leaders who matter to the economic story include [[Xi Jinping]], [[Sanae Takaichi]], [[Mark Carney]], and [[Javier Milei]]. See [[Countries Hub]] for the full layer. ## Crises that traveled - [[Great Depression]] · [[Smoot-Hawley Tariff]] — the template for tariff-driven contraction - [[Great Inflation]] · [[Volcker Shock]] — the dollar's 1970s crisis, and the rate shock that hit the developing world's debts - [[2008 Financial Crisis]] — the US crisis that went global - [[Greek Debt Crisis]] · [[Credit Suisse]] — Europe's turns ## See also - [[State of the US Economy]] — the domestic dashboard - [[Financial System Hub]] — US banks, markets, and regulators - [[Economics Hub]] · [[Economic Indicators Hub]] - [[Foreign Influence Hub]] · [[Global Intelligence Hub]] — the non-economic channels of foreign power