# India **India** matters to this vault as the largest working example of religious-majoritarian politics inside a formal democracy — a model of backsliding that operates through elected majorities and courts rather than through coups. > [!note] Canonical country record > This page owns the bare name **India** and is the default target for `[[India]]`. > Its history is at [[Indian History Hub]]. > A page covering its influence operations directed at the United States, if one is built, belongs in /Foreign Influence/ under an adjectival title and does **not** claim this name. ## Why it appears in this vault - [[Narendra Modi]] — the movement's central figure - [[Hinduism]] — the tradition the nationalism claims - [[Sergio Gor]] — the ambassadorial appointment linking it to the American right ## Economy and the US link *Figures as of 10 October 2026; each reading is dated.* | Indicator | Reading | |---|---| | Nominal GDP | About $4.15 trillion — IMF 2026 projection (April 2026 WEO), sixth-largest, behind Japan and the UK, after a February 2026 GDP base revision and a weaker rupee | | Real growth | 7.8% y/y, April–June 2026 (Q1 of FY2026-27); IMF July 2026 projection for 2026: 6.4% | | Inflation | CPI 4.82% y/y, August 2026 (July: 4.45%) | | Central bank | Reserve Bank of India — repo rate 5.50% after a unanimous 25 bp hike on 7 October 2026, the first hike since February 2023 | | US goods trade, 2025 | US exports $45.4B · imports $103.8B · US deficit $58.4B (Census; 2024 deficit $45.7B) | | Largest US imports from India, 2025 | Consumer goods $57.9B · industrial supplies $18.7B · capital goods $17.1B; services: business services $20.4B, telecom and IT $18.6B (BEA) | | Indian holdings of US Treasuries | $202.6B, July 2026 | | US tariff, October 2026 | 10% Section 301 since 24 July 2026 | **How the tariff got here.** India went from one of the highest US tariff rates to one of the lowest without a signed agreement. The [[Liberation Day Tariffs]] announced 26% in April 2025; a 25% "reciprocal" rate applied by August. An executive order then added a 25% penalty for buying Russian oil, effective 27 August 2025, bringing the total to 50% — among the highest on any US partner and an application of [[Secondary Sanctions]] logic through the tariff schedule. On 2 February 2026 Trump announced an interim deal cutting the rate to 18%, citing an Indian commitment to stop buying Russian oil. The oil penalty ended at 12:01 a.m. on 7 February. Eighteen days later [[Learning Resources v. Trump]] voided the whole IEEPA structure. India moved to the Section 122 10% surcharge, the deal's IEEPA-dependent terms became inoperative, and since 24 July 2026 India has paid the 10% tier of the [[Section 301 Forced Labor Tariffs]]. India also sits on the list of a separate, still-open Section 301 overcapacity investigation that could add duties later. **The oil.** The pledge to stop buying Russian oil never appeared in the joint statement. On 7 March 2026 India's Press Information Bureau said: "India has never depended on permission from any country to buy Russian oil," and Russia remained its largest crude supplier. Oil near $100 a barrel from the [[Iran War 2026]] and a weaker rupee drove the RBI's October hike. The bank now expects inflation to rise above 5% during the fiscal year. **The visa channel.** The second US lever is labour, not goods. The $100,000 [[H-1B Visa]] fee proclamation, signed on 19 September 2025, falls hardest on Indian nationals, who receive most H-1B visas. As written it ran for 12 months from 21 September 2025 unless extended. Its court history and current status are tracked at [[Indian History Hub]]. **Why it matters here.** India shows the limits of tariff leverage against a country with alternatives. [[Narendra Modi]] is personally close to [[Donald Trump]], and [[Sergio Gor]]'s appointment as ambassador ties the relationship to the American right. Yet the 50% rate produced a pledge, the court erased the leverage, and India kept buying Russian oil and said so. H-1B also divides the right at home: tech-right donors defend the programme and immigration restrictionists attack it. ## See Also - [[Indian History Hub]] - [[World History Hub]] - [[Global Economy Hub]]