# Farm Economy American agriculture is the sector most exposed to the Trump-era trade wars, and the one most heavily compensated for them. Farmers export a large share of what they grow, and China was their biggest customer. When tariffs started, Beijing retaliated against the crops of the president's most loyal voters. Washington answered both times with bailouts: about **$23 billion** in 2018–2019, and more in 2025–26. The result is a farm sector whose income now leans on government checks. In 2026 direct federal payments are forecast at **$47.4 billion**, roughly **30% of net farm income** and a record in nominal dollars. ## The first trade war (2018–2019) China answered the first round of tariffs by cutting purchases of US soybeans, pork and grain. USDA's **Market Facilitation Program** paid farmers about $8.6 billion for 2018 and $14.4 billion for 2019, a total of about **$23 billion** (GAO). Food purchases and export promotion brought the package to roughly $26 billion. ## The second trade war (2025–2026) **The soybean boycott.** For the first time since at least the 1990s, China bought no US soybeans at the start of the 2025 export season (Bloomberg). In September 2025 it imported none at all, the first such month since November 2018. Sen. [[Chuck Grassley]] told the Senate on Oct. 1, 2025: "China has not bought a single one of Americans' soybeans this year." **The deal.** After the Oct. 30, 2025 Trump–Xi meeting in Busan, the White House said China had committed to buy at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million tons a year in 2026–2028. There is no published written agreement, and Beijing never confirmed the figures. - **2025 commitment:** China missed the year-end date. Treasury Secretary [[Scott Bessent]] moved it to Feb. 28, 2026, and traders said the 12 million tons was reached in mid-January. - **2026 pace:** about 15 million tons, roughly 60% of the target, as of late October 2026, almost all bought by state firms. - **Tariffs:** US soybeans still face a 13% Chinese tariff versus 3% for Brazilian beans. The roughly $60 billion package of US–China tariff cuts agreed after the September 2026 summit ([[Trump-Xi China Summit 2026]]) cut duties on US corn, wheat, sorghum, meat and soy products, but **left commercial soybeans out**. The American Soybean Association said it was "disappointed." **The bailouts.** | Program | Amount | Date | |---|---|---| | Farmer Bridge Assistance (row crops) plus specialty crops | up to **$12 billion** ($11B + $1B) | announced Dec. 8, 2025; enrollment Feb.–Apr. 2026 | | Harvest Fuel Relief (diesel costs) | up to **$8 billion** | announced Oct. 19, 2026 at a Kansas rally; payment rates due November | | One Big Beautiful Bill Act farm provisions | about $66 billion over 10 years (Iowa State tally) | signed July 4, 2025 | The [[Big Beautiful Bill]] raised the support prices farmers are guaranteed (soybeans from $8.40 to $10.00 a bushel, corn from $3.70 to $4.10), expanded crop insurance subsidies, added up to 30 million new eligible acres and raised the per-farm payment limit from $125,000 to $155,000. The same bill cut [[SNAP]]. Diesel topped $6 a gallon in the fall of 2026 after the [[Iran War 2026]] oil shock. [[Donald Trump]] announced the fuel aid at a rally for Sen. [[Roger Marshall]] in Kansas two weeks before the midterms. ## The numbers (USDA, Sept. 3, 2026 forecast) | | 2025 | 2026 | |---|---|---| | Net farm income | about $162.7 billion | **$158.4 billion** (−2.6%; −5.5% after inflation) | | Direct government payments | $27.9 billion | **$47.4 billion** (+70%) | | Payments as share of net farm income | about 17% | about **30%** | | Fertilizer and lime costs | — | $39.6 billion (+15.3%) | | Fuel and oil costs | — | $21.6 billion (+28.8%) | **Stress shows despite the payments.** Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose to **315 in 2025** from 216 in 2024 (+46%), the third straight annual increase. The sharpest rise was in the Midwest (+70%). ## The farm bill lapsed The 2018 farm bill expired in 2023 and was extended three times, most recently to **Sept. 30, 2026**, when it lapsed again. USDA lost authority to sign new Conservation Reserve Program contracts. Crop insurance and SNAP continue. - **The next cliff:** commodity and dairy programs expire Dec. 31, 2026. Without action, dairy support reverts to 1940s-era permanent law on Jan. 1. - **In Congress:** the House passed a new farm bill 224–200 on April 30, 2026. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version 12–11 on party lines on Sept. 16, 2026. As of Nov. 9 there had been no Senate floor vote, with SNAP cost-sharing the main fight, and farm-press reports said the midterm results made a lame-duck deal harder. ## Why it's on the map Farm country is the clearest case of voters absorbing the costs of a policy their side champions and being compensated with public money. The pattern is the same in both trade wars: - tariffs provoke retaliation aimed at rural exports; - Washington writes checks through the Commodity Credit Corporation, USDA's borrowing authority, rather than through new legislation; - the aid arrives on the president's timetable, including at a campaign rally. Agriculture Secretary [[Brooke Rollins]] has framed each round of payments as emergency relief ("Putting Farmers First means providing economic relief now," February 2026). The farm economy also shows the [[Immigration and the Labor Supply]] squeeze from the other side: the Labor Department itself has said the crackdown worsened farm labor shortages. ## See also - [[Tariffs]] · [[Trump China Trade War]] · [[Trump-Xi China Summit 2026]] · [[US Trade Policy Timeline]] - [[Department of Agriculture]] · [[Brooke Rollins]] · [[Chuck Grassley]] - [[Big Beautiful Bill]] · [[SNAP]] · [[Immigration and the Labor Supply]] - [[Gas Prices]] · [[Iran War 2026]] · [[State of the US Economy]]