# Conflict Minerals Chain Map An ASCII process-flow map of the conflict-minerals chain **from pit to product** — where the ore comes out of the ground, who taxes it on the way, where provenance is destroyed, where every regulatory regime tries to grab it, and where it fails. Time-slice: **August 2026**. Companion to [[Conflict Minerals Ecosystem]], which maps the *actors* in six tiers. This maps the *sequence* — and it is built to make one thing visible: **every binding regime attaches at Stage 5, and by Stage 5 the origin information is already gone.** > [!note] How to read this chart > **▶** marks the main path of physical material. **└─▶** marks a branch or diversion. **◇** marks a decision or chokepoint where the chain can be governed. **✗** marks a point where a regime does *not* reach. **$** marks a place where somebody takes a cut. Bracketed notes give the current status or the number that matters. Names inside the fence are plain text — Obsidian does not render wikilinks inside a code fence; the linked versions are in the prose below. ``` CONFLICT MINERALS — PIT TO PRODUCT (as of August 2026) │ DRC 3TG and cobalt shown as the reference chain; Myanmar and diamond variants noted │ ▶ main path └─▶ branch ◇ chokepoint ✗ regime does not reach $ rent extracted │ ■ STAGE 1 — THE GROUND │ │ │ ├─ Artisanal pit (hand-dug, unshored) .... ~255,000 cobalt diggers; 2,800+ mapped 3T sites │ │ └─▶ $ armed-group tax at source ..... M23 at Rubaya: $4/kg [~$800k/month] │ │ └─▶ $ national-army interference .... FARDC at 37% of sites — MORE than all │ │ (IPIS field data) non-state groups combined (29%) │ │ └─▶ $ roadblock / circulation tax ... 1,082 roadblocks mapped, Kivus + CAR │ │ [Schouten: chokepoints out-earn deposits] │ │ │ └─ Industrial mine (licensed, owned) ..... ~98% of DRC cobalt by volume │ └─▶ Glencore · CMOC · ERG · Ivanhoe/Zijin · Gécamines as minority partner │ ▼ ■ STAGE 2 — FIRST AGGREGATION │ │ Ore from many pits is bagged, tagged and pooled. Origin is still recoverable HERE │ │ and essentially nowhere after. │ │ │ ◇ ITSCI bag-and-tag ...................... the only upstream scheme at scale │ │ └─▶ ✗ 2022: at one site <20% of tagged material came from validated mines │ │ └─▶ ✗ at another, 15× the validated mines' output was tagged │ │ └─▶ RMI let ITSCI's recognition lapse 2022 — and nothing replaced it │ │ └─▶ [suspended in parts of N. & S. Kivu since 28 Feb 2025 — M23 advance] │ │ │ └─▶ Comptoirs / négociants ................ licensed buying houses, thin margins │ ▼ ■ STAGE 3 — THE BORDER ◇◇◇ THE DECISIVE STEP │ │ │ ├─ Cross into Rwanda ...................... $ second tax: +$3/kg │ │ └─▶ Rwandan mineral export revenue: $373m (2017) ▶ $1.75bn (2024) │ │ └─▶ ITSCI insider estimate: ~10% of Rwanda's exports actually mined there │ │ └─▶ [Rwanda DOES have Gatumba pegmatites — the claim is that exports │ │ vastly exceed credible output, not that geology is absent] │ │ │ ├─ Cross into Uganda ...................... gold: $2.25bn exported 2020-21 │ │ └─▶ from a country with no meaningful deposits │ │ │ └─ Lobito Corridor / Dar es Salaam ........ the legitimate southern route │ (copper-cobalt, industrial) │ ✗ NO REGIME BINDS THIS STEP. Certification attaches to a shipment at a border, │ not to a stone or a sack at a mine. A neighbouring member state's certificate │ legitimises whatever crosses it. │ ▼ ■ STAGE 4 — TRADERS & REFINERS OF RECORD │ │ │ ├─ Regional exporters ..................... 7 firms ≈ 85% of Rwanda's coltan exports │ ├─ International traders .................. Traxys · Trafigura · Mercuria │ └─ Gold refiners .......................... Gasabo Gold [OFAC-designated 25 Jun 2026] │ UAE refining hubs │ ▼ ■ STAGE 5 — THE SMELTER ◇◇◇ WHERE EVERY REGIME ATTACHES │ │ │ │ Ore is smelted into metal that is CHEMICALLY INDISTINGUISHABLE by origin. │ │ Provenance is destroyed here — permanently, by physics, not by fraud. │ │ This is why every regime audits smelters: it is the last convergence point. │ │ │ ◇ RMI / RMAP third-party audit ............ Conformant Smelter & Refiner List │ │ └─▶ first EU-recognised scheme, 16 Oct 2025 │ │ └─▶ ✗ Jun 2026: 8 smelters processing smuggled Rubaya coltan │ │ ALL EIGHT PASSED RMAP AUDITS IN 2024-25 │ │ │ └─▶ China holds ~70% of refining across 19 of 20 strategic minerals │ and ~98% of heavy rare-earth separation │ ✗ NO WESTERN REGIME BINDS A CHINESE BUYER │ ▼ ■ STAGE 6 — THE ISSUER ◇ WHERE THE LAW FINALLY BITES │ │ │ ├─◆ Dodd-Frank §1502 (US) ................. SEC issuers only │ │ ├─ ◇ Reasonable Country of Origin Inquiry ....... IN FORCE │ │ ├─ ✗ Conflict Minerals Report ................... unenforced since 7 Apr 2017 │ │ ├─ ✗ Independent Private Sector Audit ........... stayed since 2014 │ │ ├─ ✗ "not DRC conflict free" label ............. struck, 1st Amendment, 2014 │ │ ├─ ✗ covers 3TG ONLY — no cobalt, jade, nickel, lithium, rare earths │ │ ├─ ✗ covers DRC + 9 neighbours ONLY — no Myanmar, no Indonesia │ │ └─ [H.R. 7085 repeal: Union Calendar No. 481 since 19 Mar 2026; │ │ presidential waiver requested Apr + Jun 2026, no response] │ │ │ ├─◆ EU Regulation 2017/821 ................ EU IMPORTERS only, global geography │ │ ├─ ◇ so Myanmar tin IS in scope │ │ ├─ ✗ jade and rare earths are NOT (3TG only) │ │ └─ ✗ NO binding obligation on downstream manufacturers at all │ │ │ ├─◆ Kimberley Process (diamonds) .......... 60 participants / 86 states / 99.8% of rough │ │ ├─ ✗ "rebel movements... undermining legitimate governments" │ │ ├─ ✗ so a state army killing 214 miners at Marange produced NO conflict diamonds │ │ └─ ✗ rough only — stones exit the system on being cut │ │ │ └─◆ OECD Due Diligence Guidance ........... mineral- and geography-agnostic │ └─ ✗ voluntary. No enforcement. Everyone's stated framework, nobody's obligation. │ ▼ ■ STAGE 7 — THE PRODUCT │ Capacitors · solder · batteries · magnets · vehicles · aerospace │ Apple · Intel · Samsung · Sony · Microsoft · Amazon · Nvidia · Tesla · Toyota │ │ └─▶ Jun 2026: Apple instructed suppliers to suspend 3T and gold purchases │ from DRC and Rwanda entirely — the de facto embargo critics warned │ about in 2012, arriving by corporate decision rather than by statute. │ └────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── THE STRUCTURAL FINDING Origin is recoverable at Stage 2 and destroyed at Stage 5. Every binding regime attaches at Stage 5 or later. Therefore every regime is auditing a claim it cannot independently verify, and depends entirely on a Stage-2 tagging scheme that was discredited in 2022 and has not been replaced. ``` ## Notes - **Why the reference chain is DRC 3TG.** It is the only chain with a purpose-built binding regime, which makes the gaps legible. The Myanmar variant is structurally identical except that **no binding regime attaches at any stage** — see [[Myanmar Conflict Minerals]]. The diamond variant differs at Stage 5: diamonds are not smelted, so origin survives physically but is destroyed *administratively* by mixed-origin certification and by the rough-only scope. - **Stage 1 numbers** are from IPIS field mapping and UN Group of Experts reporting; the Rubaya taxation figures are from [[Global Witness]]'s June 2026 investigation. See [[Rubaya Coltan Mine]]. - **Stage 3 is the load-bearing failure.** Certification attaches to a shipment at a border crossing, not to material at a mine. That is what makes a neighbouring member state a laundering channel rather than a barrier — the mechanism [[Charles Taylor]]'s Liberia demonstrated with 31 million carats in the 1990s and [[Rwanda]] demonstrates with coltan today. - **Stage 5 is physics, not policy.** Smelting genuinely destroys origin information. No amount of enforcement recovers it downstream. This is why the [[OECD Due Diligence Guidance]] targets smelters, and why [[Responsible Minerals Initiative]] audits are the operative compliance instrument everywhere. - **Status of the American regime** is tracked live at [[Conflict Minerals Watchlist]]; the doctrinal history is on [[Dodd-Frank Section 1502]]. ## See also - [[Conflict Minerals Hub]] — the cluster - [[Conflict Minerals Ecosystem]] — the same chain mapped by actor rather than by sequence - [[Conflict Minerals Timeline]] — the chronology - [[Conflict Resources Atlas]] — the comparative cases - [[Conflict Minerals Supply Chain]] — the materials and traceability treatment - [[ITSCI]] · [[Responsible Minerals Initiative]] · [[Kimberley Process Certification Scheme]]