# Kalshi **Kalshi** is the largest U.S. prediction market. [[Tarek Mansour]] and [[Luana Lopes Lara]] founded it in 2018, and it is the first platform regulated by the [[CFTC]] to let Americans bet, legally, on elections, economic data and, above all, sports. Its rise is the story of a financial-regulation loophole turned into a national sportsbook, with the Trump family and a friendly CFTC along the way. ## The numbers Kalshi raised **$1 billion at a $22 billion valuation** in May 2026, in a round led by Coatue. By August it was in advanced talks at **$40 billion**, and an SEC filing showed $1.12 billion in equity sold since April. It reported about **$40 billion in trading volume in July 2026**, roughly three times [[Polymarket]]'s U.S. and offshore volume combined. Sports contracts make up the large majority of it. [[Robinhood]] routes customers onto Kalshi's markets. ## The political wiring - **Washington lobby.** Kalshi co-founded the [[Coalition for Prediction Markets]] in December 2025, now run by former Rep. [[Sean Patrick Maloney]] with [[Brian Quintenz]] as a senior adviser. - **Donald Trump Jr.** joined as a paid strategic adviser in January 2025 (see [[Donald Trump Jr.]]). - **The Quintenz episode.** Trump nominated Kalshi board member [[Brian Quintenz]] to chair the CFTC, the agency that regulates Kalshi. The White House pulled the nomination on October 1, 2025, reportedly after lobbying by the Gemini founders ([[Winklevoss Twins]]). Mike Selig, a crypto lawyer from the SEC's crypto task force, was confirmed as CFTC chair in December 2025. - **Election contracts** came first. A 2024 federal court win over the CFTC let Kalshi list contracts on which party would control Congress. That opened the door to everything that followed. ## The sports war Kalshi's legal theory is that a sports contract on a CFTC-registered exchange is a "swap," so federal law preempts state gambling regulation. The appeals courts have split (full treatment, with case captions and panels, on [[KalshiEX v. Flaherty]]): | Court | Date | State | Result | |---|---|---|---| | Third Circuit ([[KalshiEX v. Flaherty]]) | Apr 6, 2026 | New Jersey | **For Kalshi.** The CFTC's jurisdiction is likely exclusive (preliminary-injunction posture). | | Ninth Circuit | Aug 28, 2026 | Nevada | **For the state.** Sports contracts are bets, not swaps. | | Sixth Circuit | Sept 25, 2026 | Ohio, Tennessee | **For the states.** Sports results lack the required "financial, economic, or commercial consequence." | | Fourth Circuit | pending | Maryland | — | The CFTC has also sued Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut and New York to stop them enforcing gambling law against registered exchanges (April 2026), and five more states by late June. New York sued Kalshi in mid-2026 and Polymarket about two months later, on September 24. New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to take the question. The CFTC itself says the split "calls out for resolution by the Supreme Court." Whether Kalshi is a national sportsbook or 50 state compliance problems depends on that ruling. ## Open items - Insider-trading enforcement, including candidates or staff betting on their own races. - The 2027 IPO watch. - How much of Kalshi's valuation depends on the Supreme Court outcome. ## See also - [[Prediction Markets and Gambling Sector]] · [[Polymarket]] · [[CFTC]] · [[DraftKings]] · [[Sports Betting]] · [[Problem Gambling]] - [[Tarek Mansour]] · [[Luana Lopes Lara]] · [[Coalition for Prediction Markets]] · [[KalshiEX v. Flaherty]] · [[FanDuel]] · [[Fanatics]] - [[Donald Trump Jr.]] · [[1789 Capital]] · [[Crypto-Political Machine News Log]] · [[Paid Political Influencers]]