# SpaceX Calendar Forward-looking calendar of known and predicted [[SpaceX]] beats. The look-ahead companion to the look-back [[SpaceX Watch Log]]. > **Newly public (June 12, 2026).** SpaceX now carries the public-company cadence (earnings, proxy, Form 4s, lock-up) *on top of* launch milestones, contract cycles, and the Musk political overlay. Dates past June 24, 2026 — verify each as it approaches. Lifecycle: **[[SpaceX Calendar]] (predicted) → it happens → [[SpaceX Watch Log]] → if discrete & significant → `/Events/` or `/Deals/` page → indexed in [[SpaceX Events]].** ## Recurring beats (post-IPO) | Beat | Cadence | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Quarterly earnings | quarterly | First as a public co (~Aug 2026 for Q2); conglomerate segment splits | | 10-K / 10-Q | annual / quarterly | First full disclosures of the SpaceX+xAI+X structure | | Proxy (DEF 14A) | annual | Musk's voting control, board independence | | IPO lock-up expiration | one-time | ~90–180 days post-IPO; insider selling pressure | | Federal fiscal year start | Oct 1 | NASA/Space Force award cycle | | Index inclusion review | quarterly | Mechanical institutional buying if SPCX added | ## Predicted / speculative beats (next ~12 months) | Beat | Status | |---|---| | SPCX Form 4 window | **OPEN AND STILL EMPTY** — 35 days past the first unlock, 21 past the second, and one day past the third, **no officer or director sale has surfaced in reporting** (checked 2026-09-10). ⏰ **Still unverified against EDGAR directly** — this is a press-absence, not a filing-absence, and the distinction is the whole point. The negative result is now the finding if it holds | | Remaining lock-up tranches | **~~Sept 9~~ · ~~Sept 24~~ (both passed) · Oct 9 · Oct 24, 2026.** The schedule is **7% employee increments at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 calendar days after the June 12 IPO**, which is where the dates come from. **Sept 9: ~319M shares, SPCX −3.9% on the day** (this row previously implied no reaction; corrected 2026-09-27). **Sept 24: reported at up to ~328M shares.** Free float reported near **17%** after the September releases | | Q3 2026 earnings + ~28% tranche | ~Nov 2026; second-largest unlock | | 455.8M price-conditional shares | Failed their ≥$175.50-on-5-of-10-days test at Q2 and **rolled onto the Dec 8 cliff** — extra supply on a date with no price gate | | Federal fiscal year turnover | **Oct 1, 2026** — NASA / Space Force / NRO award cycle; NSSL follow-ons | | Starship Flight 14 | **NET Monday Sept 28, 2026, 8:15 a.m. EDT (12:15 GMT), 75-minute window, pending regulatory approval.** Sixth published date in a month (late Aug → Sept 15 → Sept 18 → Sept 28). **First orbital attempt**, Booster 21 / Ship 41. Deploys **26 V3 [[Starlink]] satellites** — corrected from "~20". Profile: nominal offshore booster landing, orbital insertion, deploy, deorbit burn, **splashdown in the Pacific**. 🔴 **No tower catch on this flight** — the vehicle is coming down in the ocean, which settles the question the Sept 3 FAA environmental assessment was misread as answering. The FAA licence modification authorising a catch remains the trigger for that beat; verify on the FAA licensing page, not press | | Crew-13 (ISS) | **NET Oct 1, 2026, 15:10 UTC** — slipped off Sept 12 after an oxidizer leak in the Dragon propulsion system (NASA, Aug 29); Administrator [[Jared Isaacman]] put rework at 2–4 weeks and the date landed inside that window. Watkins / Delaney / Kutryk / Teteryatnikov. First Crew Dragon slip since the IPO | | ~~USSF-153~~ | **FLEW Sept 10, 2026**, 15:43 UTC from SLC-4E Vandenberg on Falcon 9 B1081 — classified, no payload manifest released; likely [[SpaceX Starshield]]-bus. Logged in [[SpaceX Watch Log]] | | Nov 3, 2026 U.S. midterms | Musk political overlay → contract-oversight risk | | All lock-up restrictions off | **Dec 8, 2026**; tradable float toward ~40% | | FCC direct-to-device spectrum fight | Rolling — SpaceX vs. the incumbent carriers; watch for opposition filings | | Terafab disclosures | Ownership split, IP allocation, subsidies — expected in SpaceX/Tesla filings, not press releases | | Musk lock-up expiry | **June 12, 2027** — ~6.4B shares | | Possible Starlink carve-out / structure changes | Speculative; watch conglomerate reshaping | ## Matured beats (moved to the Watch Log) | Beat | Outcome | |---|---| | Index inclusion | Nasdaq-100 add effective Jul 7, 2026 → [[SPCX Nasdaq-100 Inclusion]] | | First public earnings report | Aug 4, 2026 — $7.81B revenue (+92%), $18.37B capex, −$541M → [[SpaceX Q2 2026 Earnings Report]] | | **First 10-Q filing** | **Aug 4, 2026** — filed with the earnings, period ended Jun 30. Gave the debt ($38.4B aggregate, nothing material due before Jul 2031) and related-party items (Tesla aircraft charge-back, $506M Tesla purchases, Tesla's ~1% stake). **Did NOT contain the Terafab split**, which this row had predicted it would force → [[SpaceX Investors]] | | First lock-up unlock | Aug 6, 2026 — 911.5M shares released, no broad selloff, stock +16% next session → [[SPCX First Lock-Up Expiration]] | | Q2 13F deadline | Aug 14, 2026 — Alphabet ~95% of its disclosed book, Nvidia its #2 holding, Harvard's largest US position → [[SPCX Q2 2026 Institutional Ownership]] | | **Second lock-up tranche** | **Aug 20, 2026** — ~319M shares; SPCX −2% on the week to $136.97. This row previously read "90/105/120/135 days (Sept–Oct)"; it was wrong → [[SPCX First Lock-Up Expiration]] | ## What to pre-position for - **Form 4s.** Two tranches have unlocked and no officer or director sale has surfaced. The negative result is now itself the finding — but confirm it on EDGAR rather than in press coverage before treating it as established. - **The 10-K** (annual) for the first full audited view of the SpaceX + xAI + X structure — **and now the most likely forcing function for the Terafab split**, since the 10-Q came and went without it. Failing that, a Tesla proxy, or a 2027 merger that moots the question entirely. - **The Dec 8 cliff.** Everything remaining releases with no price gate, including the 455.8M shares that failed their August test. - **Contract-oversight scrutiny** tied to Musk's political role ([[Defense Tech Conflicts of Interest]]) — sharpening into the Nov 3 midterms. - **Energy and siting fights.** A 10 GW compute commitment by end-2027 plus a 100M-sq-ft Texas fab makes SpaceX a grid story; see [[The Quest for 90 Gigawatts]]. ## See Also - [[SpaceX]] — company page - [[SpaceX Dossier]] — dossier front door - [[SpaceX Watch Log]] — where passed beats get logged - [[SpaceX Events]] — where discrete events get indexed - [[SpaceX Investors]]