# OpenAI Calendar Forward-looking calendar of known and predicted [[OpenAI]] news beats. This is the **look-ahead** page; the [[OpenAI Watch Log]] is the **look-back** feed. The lifecycle: > **Calendar (predicted beat) → it happens → logged in [[OpenAI Watch Log]] → if it becomes a discrete, significant event, a page is created in `/Events/` and indexed in [[OpenAI Events]].** Dates past June 28, 2026. Verify each date against primary sources as it approaches — IPO-related dates in particular are highly fluid. ## Recurring beats (cadence) OpenAI is private and does not report quarterly earnings. Its newsbeat cadence is driven by product launches, funding events, legal proceedings, and the IPO process. | Beat | Cadence | Typical window | Why it matters | |---|---|---|---| | Model releases | irregular (~quarterly) | varies | Capability jumps, competitive positioning, safety evaluations | | Lobbying disclosures | quarterly | ~20 days after quarter end | OpenSecrets; spend trajectory ($380K→$1.8M→$2.99M) | | Stargate milestones | irregular | ongoing | Data center capacity, partnership developments, political signaling | | Federal fiscal year start | annual | October 1 | New budget authority → contract award season | | S-1 amendments | IPO-related | until listing | Each amendment reveals updated financials and risk factors | | Political spending | election-cycle | through Nov 2026 | [[Greg Brockman]]/[[Sam Altman]] PAC contributions; [[AI Political Spending Ecosystem]] | ## Upcoming dated beats (next ~12 months) | Date (approx.) | Beat | Status | |---|---|---| | Q3 2026 | S-1 becomes public (timing uncertain) | Confirmed filed June 8; awaiting public availability | | Q4 2026 (Oct–Nov) | Potential IPO | Targeting Q4 2026; could slip to 2027 | | ~July 2026 | Musk v. OpenAI 9th Circuit appeal brief | Predicted from verdict date (May 18); watch for filing | | ~Q3 2026 | Q2 lobbying disclosure | Predicted from cadence | | Oct 1, 2026 | FY2027 federal fiscal year begins — contract season | Recurring | | Nov 3, 2026 | U.S. midterm elections | Fixed; downstream contract/political risk; [[AI Political Spending Ecosystem]] peak | | ~Q4 2026 | Next major model release (post-Sol) | Predicted from cadence | | ~Q1 2027 | Revenue milestone reporting (if public by then) | Conditional on IPO timing | ## Predicted / speculative beats Lower-confidence beats worth pre-positioning for: - **IPO roadshow and pricing** — if targeting Oct–Nov 2026, the roadshow would begin ~2 weeks prior. At $852B private valuation, the pricing tension between existing investors' floor and public-market appetite will be intense. - **Copyright litigation developments** — NYT v. OpenAI and Authors Guild suits are pending; any ruling or settlement would reshape the "freedom to learn" policy position. - **Stargate partnership disputes** — reporting suggests the JV hasn't hired staff or actively developed data centers as of mid-2026; a restructuring or clarification of responsibilities among OpenAI, [[SoftBank]], and Oracle would be significant. - **Sol government-clearance expansion or permanence** — the June 2026 government-gated rollout is described as "transitional"; watch whether it becomes a standing arrangement. - **New defense contracts** — the $200M Pentagon contract and GenAI.mil clearance open the door to additional classified work; watch for new awards through the CDAO office. - **Executive changes** — Fidji Simo's medical leave creates uncertainty in the product leadership structure; Brockman is covering but this may not be permanent. - **European regulatory actions** — EU AI Act enforcement against frontier model providers; any European market restrictions. - **Employee equity events** — potential tender offer or secondary sale ahead of IPO; employee retention dynamics. ## See Also - [[OpenAI]] — company page - [[OpenAI Dossier]] — dossier front door - [[OpenAI Watch Log]] — where passed beats get logged - [[OpenAI Events]] — where discrete events get indexed - [[OpenAI Contracts]] - [[Stargate Project]]