# Anduril Calendar Forward-looking calendar of known and predicted [[Anduril]] beats. The look-ahead companion to the look-back [[Anduril Watch Log]]. > **Private company — different rhythm than [[Palantir]].** No quarterly earnings, proxy, or index rebalances. The cadence here is funding rounds, production milestones, and contract cycles, with a possible **IPO** as the single biggest pending beat. Lifecycle: **[[Anduril Calendar]] (predicted) → it happens → [[Anduril Watch Log]] → if discrete & significant → `/Events/` or `/Deals/` page → indexed in [[Anduril Events]].** ## Recurring / structural beats | Beat | Cadence | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Funding round | ~annual recently (G→H doubled in ~11 mo) | Reprices the company; reveals conviction investors | | Federal fiscal year start | Oct 1 | New budget authority → contract awards | | NDAA passage | late each year | Authorizes programs Anduril competes for | | Defense expos / announcements | recurring | Product unveils, program news | | Arsenal-1 production milestones | rolling | First articles, throughput ([[Anduril Fury]]) | ## Hard-dated beats | Date | Beat | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | **Oct 1, 2026** | FY27 federal fiscal year start | New budget authority → contract awards | | **October 2026** | **MUSV marketplace at-sea demonstrations conclude**, and Anduril's 60-metre, 500-plus-tonne autonomous surface vessel — built with [[HD Hyundai Heavy Industries]] and Edison Chouest Offshore — is due in the water | The maritime thread resolves here. Anduril was **not** among the seven firms selected for the first demonstration phase (confirmed by HD KSOE on its July 29 earnings call), so the vessel enters the water outside the competition it was aimed at. Anduril is expected to take ownership for testing off the U.S. coast by **end of 2026**. Watch whether it enters a later marketplace tranche or becomes a company-funded demonstrator | | **Nov 3, 2026** | U.S. midterms | Downstream defense-budget and political-risk signal; also the endpoint of the [[Palmer Luckey]] fundraising lane | | **December 2026** | **JIATF-401 directed-energy "shoot-off" at Dugway Proving Ground, Utah** — 🔴 **relocated from Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona** | Run jointly with the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. Structured so that a system performing well gets **an immediate purchase order** to stand up a production line. Anduril has **no directed-energy product** and is not a named participant — the absence is the datapoint. See [[Anduril Product Ecosystem]] | > [!info] Resolved — the Nov 20 GAO deadline is gone > This table carried "**Nov 20, 2026** — GAO decision deadline on Anduril's [[Bid Protest]] over the [[Anduril DHS Counter-UAS IDIQ]] hardware track" as the dossier's one fixed-date, binary-outcome beat. It never reached a decision. **GAO dismissed the August 12 protest about three weeks after filing because DHS took corrective action and agreed to re-evaluate**; DHS then finalised the Track 1 award, and on **2026-09-16** Anduril was added to Track 1. Anduril, BAE Systems' U.S. subsidiary and [[Leidos]] are now the only three firms on both tracks. The binary outcome the dossier was pre-positioned for — a competed federal panel ranking Anduril's counter-UAS hardware below the primes — **never got tested.** Logged in [[Anduril Watch Log]]. ## Predicted / speculative beats (next ~12 months) | Beat | Status | |---|---| | **IPO / S-1 filing** | Intent confirmed by [[Palmer Luckey]], but tempo cooled: [[Brian Schimpf]] says "not in any rush," can stay private indefinitely (July 9). Trigger re-anchored on delivery proof — the first of which landed July 27. Still the highest-value beat, no longer imminent | | **Next funding round** | **MATURED to talks (July 24):** Reuters reports a round in negotiation at ~$100B, possibly two-stage. Deals page when it prices — see [[Anduril Watch Log]] | | New major contract awards | Track NDAA + Oct 1 fiscal turnover | | **First task orders under the DHS C-UAS vehicle** | Ordering opened Aug 1, 2026. Anduril holds a Track 2 seat against a **$489M ceiling shared seven ways** — the seat is worth what it wins off it, not the ceiling. Watch USASpending; see [[Anduril DHS Counter-UAS IDIQ]] | | **Arsenal-1 first-article deliveries** | **MATURED (July 27):** first Ohio-built [[Anduril Fury]] off the line; 126-day build, ~12/month capacity. Beat shifts to throughput vs. contracted quantities — see [[Arsenal-1]] | | CCA / Golden Dome / AUKUS program decisions | Milestone-driven; [[Anduril Fury]] in production (FQ-44A), [[Anduril Ghost Shark]] | | Thunder tiltrotor (with Archer Aviation) | Unveiled July 20 at Farnborough; first flight planned 2027; no program of record yet | | Nov 3, 2026 U.S. midterms | Moved to the hard-dated table above | ## What to pre-position for - **An S-1** would, for the first time, expose Anduril's cap table, board, and financials — prep the [[Anduril Investors]] and [[Anduril Leadership]] pages to absorb it fast. - **Production stumbles** at Arsenal-1 remain the most likely negative surprise — the first article landed July 27, but the risk now shifts from "can they build one" to throughput vs. contracted quantities (~12/month claimed vs. ~150/year rating). - **Allied-deal politics** (Australia/Poland/Taiwan/Ukraine) and any repeat of the [[Anduril Altius]] combat failure. - **A denied protest on Nov 20.** The dossier is built around Anduril displacing legacy primes; a GAO denial would be the first documented case of a competed federal evaluation preferring the primes on counter-drone hardware. Pre-position [[Anduril Contracts]] to carry the competed-vs-sole-source distinction rather than retrofitting it under deadline. ## See Also - [[Anduril]] — company page - [[Anduril Dossier]] — dossier front door - [[Anduril Watch Log]] — where passed beats get logged - [[Anduril Events]] — where discrete events get indexed - [[Anduril Investors]]