# 2026 Midterms — Archived Highlights Items that rotate out of "Current Highlights" on the [[index]] page land here. Date-reverse-chronological. Keep the index uncluttered; keep the record permanent. ## 2026-09 ### 2026-09-04 - **Mail-ballot rule enjoined:** Judge [[Indira Talwani]] (D. Mass.) grants a preliminary injunction barring the [[USPS Federal Ballot Mail Portal]] requirements for the November election, finding "no evidence relating to fraudulent mail voting" in the record. The government's Supreme Court stay application (No. 26A297, filed Sept. 3) is pending; responses due Sept. 8. See [[Executive Order 14399]]. ### 2026-09-03 - **House cancels the rest of September:** two days after saying the House would "work all the way through September," [[Mike Johnson]] cancels votes for the month's last two weeks — four legislative days remain before Nov. 3 (Sept. 14–17). Members leave for the [[Republican Midterm Convention]] in Dallas. ### 2026-09-01 - **Cook: "bad, really bad, or truly horrible."** [[Cook Political Report]] founder Charlie Cook writes that Republicans "should brace themselves" — the three most plausible midterm outcomes for the GOP, 64 days out. Same day: [[Thomas Massie]] files the discharge petition for the *Epstein Files Transparency Act II* (Aug. 31), needing every Democrat plus three Republicans; see [[Epstein Files Transparency Act]]. ## 2026-05 ### 2026-05-26 - **TX-Sen GOP primary runoff:** [[Ken Paxton]] defeats incumbent [[John Cornyn]] **63.8%–36.2%** (~27-point margin, ~1.38M votes cast). First primary challenger to defeat an incumbent U.S. senator from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen beat Ralph Yarborough in 1970. Trump's May 19 endorsement + [[Wesley Hunt]] runoff endorsement collapsed the Cornyn lane in one week; the Adam Hoffman plea-deal scandal produced no measurable late-decider drag. Cornyn conceded emotionally and pledged to support the GOP ticket. General: Paxton vs. [[James Talarico]] (D) — watch for Cook rating shift Likely R → Lean R. See [[TX-Sen-2026]]. ### 2026-05-19 - **KY-Sen GOP primary:** Barr wins 64–28 over Cameron on the early AP count (certified: 60.5–30.8); Trump endorsement (May 1, not May 5) decisive; Musk-funded Morris had withdrawn May 1 and endorsed Barr. *(Corrected 2026-10-01.)* General: Barr vs. [[Charles Booker]] (D). Cameron now 0-for-2 statewide. See [[KY-Sen-2026]]. - **PA-07 D primary:** Brooks wins 41% over Crosswell (~30%); Shapiro + Sanders + IAFF coalition prevails over institutional-D lane (Wild/EMILYs List). General: Brooks vs. [[Ryan Mackenzie]] (R-inc.), Toss Up. See [[PA-07-2026]]. ## 2026-04 ### 2026-04-30 - Built [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]] in `/Timelines/`. Full 2025–26 mid-decade wave documented. Net wave: roughly R +12 / D +10, contingent on VA certification and pending VRA litigation. ### 2026-04-23 - Folder reorganization: all 35 Senate race files moved into `Senate/`. First five Tier A Issues dossiers built: [[Immigration]], [[DOGE and Federal Workforce]], [[Big Beautiful Bill]], [[Affordability]], [[Rule of Law]]. - Batch 3 House dossiers: NY-19, VA-02, WI-03, CA-41, PA-01. Key finding: VA-02 three-rater cascade on 4/21; Calvert CA-40 move collapses "Harris-won R trio" to duo. - Batch 2 House dossiers: NY-17, IA-03, NV-03, NM-02, OH-01, AZ-06. Pattern: mid-April endorsement cascade; challenger-over-incumbent Q1 money reversals. - Batch 1 House dossiers: CA-13, IA-01, MI-07, PA-07. - Iowa polling (Echelon Insights): both D candidates lead Hinson. First D lead in Iowa Senate in over a decade. - Mid-April polling: ME Dem primary Platner 55%/Mills 28%; OH special Husted +6 over Brown; KY R primary Barr 24%/Cameron 21%/Morris 14%. ### 2026-04-13 - [[Cook Political Report]] rating shifts: Georgia → Lean D (from Toss Up), North Carolina → Lean D (from Toss Up), Ohio Special → Toss Up (from Lean R), Nebraska → Likely R (from Solid R). ## 2026-03 ### 2026-03-24 - [[Markwayne Mullin]] confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security, 54–45. [[Kevin Stitt]] appointed Alan Armstrong to fill Mullin's seat; Armstrong barred from running for full term → Oklahoma becomes open seat. ### 2026-03-17 - Illinois Democratic primary: Juliana Stratton wins 40.1% to replace retiring Durbin. ### 2026-03-10 - Mississippi primaries: Hyde-Smith wins R primary 80.8%, Scott Colom wins D primary 73%. ### 2026-03-05 - Trump fires DHS Secretary [[Kristi Noem]]; nominates Mullin as replacement. ### 2026-03-04 - Montana filing-deadline surprise: [[Steve Daines]] announces retirement minutes before deadline. Kurt Alme enters with Trump/Daines/Gianforte/Sheehy endorsements. Seth Bodnar (I) enters as Tester-model wildcard. ### 2026-03-03 - Texas primary: Cornyn-Paxton go to runoff (41.7% / 41.0%); [[Wesley Hunt]] eliminated (13.4%). - North Carolina primaries: Roy Cooper (D) and [[Michael Whatley]] (R) both effectively unopposed. ## 2026-02 ### 2026-02-23 - Ballotpedia report: Barr, Cameron, Morris, and nine others filed for the Kentucky Republican Senate primary (May 19, 2026). Field to replace retiring McConnell settles with three top-tier candidates plus minor challengers. ### 2026-02 (early) - [[Susan Collins]] announces re-election for 2026 Senate term. First major R incumbent announcement in the cycle; only R defending a Harris-won state. ## 2026-01 ### 2026-01 (late) - [[Mary Peltola]] (former U.S. Rep, AK-AL) announces Senate campaign against Sullivan. Elevates Alaska's profile on the competitive map. ### 2026-01 (Cook Political Report ratings, initial) - Initial January 2026 Cook ratings set the baseline. Competitive tier at January: Georgia Toss Up, North Carolina Toss Up, Ohio Special Lean R, Maine Toss Up, Michigan Toss Up, New Hampshire Lean D. ## 2025 ### 2025-12 - National retirement tracker: record pace of House + Senate retirements noted in Dec 2025 NPR coverage. Signals 2026 anti-incumbent environment. ### 2025-11 / 2025-10 - [[JD Vance]] inaugurated as VP; [[Jon Husted]] appointed to Vance's Ohio Senate seat by Gov. DeWine. ### 2025-09 / 2025-08 - Sen. [[Thom Tillis]] announces retirement — creates NC open seat. - Sen. Tuberville launches Alabama gubernatorial bid — AL Senate seat goes open. - Sen. McConnell announces he will not seek re-election. - Sen. Lummis (WY), Daines (MT), Ernst (IA) all announce retirements. ### 2025-03 - [[Marco Rubio]] resigns Senate seat to become Secretary of State; Gov. DeSantis appoints [[Ashley Moody]]. - Trump endorses [[Cindy Hyde-Smith]] for re-election in 2026. ### 2025 (early) - Trump second inauguration (January 2025). - Republicans hold Senate 53–47 after 2024 elections. --- ## Curation rules - Items older than ~2 weeks rotate from [[index]] → here - Keep descriptions tight (1–3 sentences each); link to the race file or source where available - Never delete — this is the long-memory for the cycle - If a date is a fuzzy boundary (e.g., "early April"), round to the most specific date source reporting provides