# Ohio U.S. Senate 2026 (Special) ## Snapshot Special election to fill the balance of JD Vance's Senate term after his elevation to vice president. Governor Mike DeWine appointed Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who is now running to complete the term through 2028. Democrat Sherrod Brown — three-term senator who lost his regular-cycle seat in 2024 — is mounting a comeback. Cook shifted the race from Lean R to **Toss Up on 2026-04-13**, reflecting Brown's surprising viability in polling despite Ohio's red-state drift. ## Incumbent - **[[Jon Husted]]** (R) — Appointed to Senate January 2025 after DeWine tapped him to fill Vance's seat. Previously Ohio Lt. Governor (2019–2025) under DeWine. Trump-endorsed. Conventional Republican brand; not a MAGA-movement figure. ## Challengers ### Democratic primary (May 5, 2026) — ✅ COMPLETE - **[[Sherrod Brown]]** — Won easily over Ron Kincaid. Three-term U.S. Senator (2007–2025), lost 2024 re-election bid to [[Bernie Moreno]]. Re-entered political life for the special. Economic populist; pro-labor brand. Wins blue-collar counties Democrats otherwise lose. ### Republican primary (May 5, 2026) — ✅ COMPLETE - **[[Jon Husted]]** — Unopposed. ### General election matchup set: Husted (R) vs. Brown (D) ### Libertarian - William Redpath — former Libertarian National Committee chair ## Campaign events - **2026-09-11 — Husted campaign parts ways with its political director.** The *Washington Post* reported that the campaign's political director had used a Facebook profile photo of Waffen-SS soldiers and maintained a public Spotify playlist celebrating Rhodesia, captioned "homesick for a place that no longer exists." The campaign said that while the staffer "denies negative intent," it was parting ways with him; the departure was confirmed the same day by *The Hill* and *Newsweek*. Recorded here as a campaign event. The staffer is a private individual and is deliberately not named on this page — see the approval-queue entry of 2026-09-13. ## Ratings history - 2026-04-13 — Cook: **Toss Up** (shifted from Lean R) - Prior: Lean R ## Key dates - 2026-05-05 — Ohio primaries (D and R) - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Early polling (Emerson April 2026): Husted +6 over Brown - Husted expected to benefit from NRSC + state GOP infrastructure - Brown retains a national small-dollar donor network from 2024 loss - TBD: Working Families PAC re-engagement, labor money, Opportunity Action ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-11 — $10,058,985.28 across 18 lines, and the largest notice of the day is pro-Democratic Ohio took **$10,058,985.28** across **18 Schedule E lines** from **seven committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-11**. Every line carries expenditure date **2026-10-09** and election code `G2026`. No notice on this date clears the Deals **§7.4a** $10M single-buy floor, so this is a roll-up and not a Deal. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Lines | |---|---|---|---|---| | **Duty and Country** | **2019651** | **$5,596,162.80** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | 4 | | **Digital Freedom Fund** | **2019615** | **$2,970,198.58** | $1,980,132.39 oppose · $990,066.19 support | 2 | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] | 2019493 | $513,776.32 | oppose | 2 | | [[AB PAC]] | 2019420 | $348,352.58 | oppose | 1 | | The Sentinel Action Fund | 2019616 | $373,350.00 | $186,675.00 oppose · $186,675.00 support | 2 | | [[Project Bullhorn PAC]] | 2019451 | $255,000.00 | $127,500.00 support · $127,500.00 oppose | 6 | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019653 | $2,145.00 | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | 1 | Across the date the split is **$8,754,744.09 (87.03%) oppose** and **$1,304,241.19 (12.97%) support**. 🔴 **The day's single largest notice in this race is Democratic-side.** **Duty and Country** (C00666388, 1032 15th Street NW Ste 247, Washington DC, treasurer Booth Goodwin) filed a 48-hour notice — file **2019651**, **$5,597,662.80** in total, of which **$5,596,162.80** is four lines against [[Jon Husted]] and **$1,500.00** is a single line in IA-Sen. **$5,573,555.05 of it — 99.6% — went through [[Waterfront Strategies]]**, with the remainder to Declaration Media LLC, [[C Plus K LLC]] and Trilogy Interactive LLC. **Digital Freedom Fund** (C00911610) bought **both directions in one notice**: $990,066.19 supporting and $1,980,132.39 opposing, on one line each. It is a first appearance in this race's log. > [!note] Per-candidate attribution was not separately derived for this date > The committee-level figures above are derived from the full Schedule E row set for the receipt date and > sum to **$10,058,985.28 / 18 lines** exactly, with each file number cited. A per-candidate > support/oppose split was **not** reconcilable from the aggregator's capped race buckets and > is therefore **not stated**. > [!warning] This is a PARTIAL-DAY FIRST READ > Receipt date **2026-10-11** was still open when these figures were taken — the newest > filing on the date was received **21:23:24 ET**. These figures are a > first read of a partial day, not a settled count, and may rise as late filings post. ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $22,756,184.26, the largest single-race day of this window Ohio took **$22,756,184.26** across **44 Schedule E lines** from **eleven committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09** — **$22,555,724.01 (99.12%) negative** against **$200,460.25 (0.88%) positive**. It is the largest one-day, one-race independent-expenditure total recorded in this vault. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$10,156,572.82** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019121 | **$6,347,405.85** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | | **[[75 PAC]]** | **2018941** | **$3,473,558.40** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | | [[LCV Victory Fund]] | 2019065 | $890,740.10 | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | | Lower Costs Now | 2019076 | $538,245.25 | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | | The Sentinel Action Fund | 2019113 | $500,000.00 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2018837 | $432,905.53 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | | [[America PAC]] | 2019090 | $240,212.44 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] $216,295.86 · **support** [[Jon Husted]] $23,916.38 | | NRA Victory Fund | 2018752 | $155,881.16 | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | | Activate America | 2019093 | $13,921.21 | **support** [[Sherrod Brown]] | | Neighbor Voices PAC | 2019039 | $6,741.50 | **support** [[Sherrod Brown]] | **Derived total: $22,756,184.26**, summed line by line from the filed documents. Positions by candidate: **$14,779,332.81 against [[Sherrod Brown]]**, **$7,776,391.20 against [[Jon Husted]]**, **$179,797.54 supporting [[Jon Husted]]**, **$20,662.71 supporting [[Sherrod Brown]]**. 🔴 **Two committees with one treasurer put $13,630,131.22 against [[Sherrod Brown]] on one day, and [[Flexpoint Media]] placed $11,059,461.60 of it.** SLF PAC's $10,156,572.82 and [[75 PAC]]'s $3,473,558.40 both run largely through that one vendor; [[75 PAC]]'s treasurer is [[Trevor Kowalski]], who also signs [[Cornhusker Majority]] and [[The Maine Standard]] — **both of which also filed on this receipt date.** See [[SLF 26M Senate IE October 2026]] and [[75 PAC]]. Ohio is **39.0% of SLF PAC's largest notice of the cycle** and SLF's first position above $10M in a single race on a single notice. These rows are not summed into a race total. This is a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while that day's filings were still arriving, so the figure may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019121.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018941.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019065.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019076.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019113.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018837.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019090.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018752.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019093.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019039.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — $16,940,575.20, and the first race in this window where the positive side is the larger one Ohio took **$16,940,575.20** across **24 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-08** — **$14,051,556.20 positive** against **$2,889,019.00 negative**. Every other race in the tranche runs 74–87% negative. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[Defend American Jobs]]** | **2018533** | **$10,262,745.57** | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | Main Street Media Group | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$2,575,572.50** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | [[Del Ray Media LLC]] | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$2,575,572.50** | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | [[Del Ray Media LLC]] | | **[[Defend American Jobs]]** | **2018533** | **$756,341.44** | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | RBC Media LLC | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | **$338,497.00** | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | Cavalry LLC | | [[LCV Victory Fund]] | 2018491 | $312,446.50 | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | The Strategy Group LLC | | Progressive Turnout Project | 2018317 | $58,259.99 | support [[Sherrod Brown]] | Merrimack Services LLC | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $37,062.50 | support [[Sherrod Brown]] | The Pivot Group, Inc. | | Indivisible Action | 2018582 | $17,132.20 | support [[Sherrod Brown]] | Lamar Advertising / Civitech / Scale to Win | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | $5,000.00 | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | SLMG LLC | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | $1,000.00 | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | [[C Plus K LLC]] | | Ohio Erie PAC | 2018145 | *$945.00* | support [[Sherrod Brown]] | Huntington Billboards | **Derived total, new money: $16,939,630.20.** The **Ohio Erie PAC $945.00** arrives on a periodic report whose expenditure dates predate the tranche and is excluded from the total; it is listed for completeness. 🔴 **Two watch triggers fired on this date.** > [!warning] "Any single Ohio-only notice at or above $10M" — **FIRED** > Set 2026-10-03, checked and not fired on 2026-10-03, 2026-10-05 and 2026-10-07. **[[Defend American Jobs]]** > file **2018533** is **$11,019,087.01 in an Ohio-only, two-line, 100%-support notice**, including a single > **$10,262,745.57** line — the largest single Schedule E line anywhere in the tranche. Recorded at > [[Defend American Jobs 11M Ohio Senate IE October 2026]]. > [!warning] "SLF PAC carrying any meaningful support line" — **FIRED** > Set 2026-10-03 and checked-and-not-fired on every sweep since. On file **2018550** SLF PAC filed > **$343,497.00 supporting [[Jon Husted]]** (Cavalry LLC $338,497.00 + SLMG LLC $5,000.00) and > **$119,698.00 supporting [[Susan Collins]]** in [[ME-Sen-2026]]. **The committee is no longer > 100% negative:** that notice is $463,195.00 support against $5,542,105.69 oppose — **7.71% positive**, > its first positive dollar recorded in this vault. Earlier "remains 100.00% negative" notes on this page > describe their own dates and are superseded from **2026-10-06** (the expenditure date on file 2018550). **The crypto industry is now the dominant pro-Husted spender by an order of magnitude.** [[Defend American Jobs]] has put **$23,140,301.70** into this seat in eight days across files 2016127 and 2018533; [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s own Ohio channel on this date is **$343,497.00**. See [[Defend American Jobs 12.1M Ohio Senate IE]] and [[Defend American Jobs 11M Ohio Senate IE October 2026]]. The aggregate columns on these rows (SLF PAC $43,167,481.47; Defend American Jobs $34,810,531.85) are recorded as what the documents say and are **not an Ohio race total**. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-08 and may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018533.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018548.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018550.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018491.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018482.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $5,666,813.30, and both of the day's two largest notices land here | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$2,419,340.42** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AB PAC]]** | **2018051** | **$2,202,939.21** | **support** [[Sherrod Brown]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] / Target Platform | | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$994,352.90** | support [[Jon Husted]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | [[High Plains PAC]] | 2017843 | *$515,000.00* | support [[Jon Husted]] | [[Advocacy Architects]] | **Derived total, new money: $5,616,632.53.** Anti-Brown $2,419,340.42 · pro-Brown $2,202,939.21 · pro-Husted $994,352.90. ⚠️ **The [[High Plains PAC]] $515,000 is NOT new money.** It arrives on that committee's Q3 report (file 2017843) and is an **identical restatement** of Form 24 file **2014017**, already logged on 2026-09-19. Both documents are unflagged originals — the case that produced FEC Back-Sweep Standard **Rule 4h** on 2026-10-08. It is listed here for completeness and excluded from the total. 🔴 **Ohio is the only race taking a position from both of the day's §7.4a notices.** [[AFP Action]]'s $16,178,234.22 mail-and-canvass buy and [[AB PAC]]'s $22,762,650.41 billboard buy both land here, on opposite sides, within two and a half hours of each other on the FEC's wire. **Neither will appear in broadcast ad-tracking data.** See [[AFP Action 16.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]] and [[AB PAC 22.8M Billboard IE October 2026]]. ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — $2,941,828.36 across 6 committees, the densest race on the day Ohio took more independent-expenditure money than any other race on e-file receipt date **2026-10-05**, from **six unrelated committees** and in both directions. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | [[Defending Main Street Super PAC]] | **2016964** | **$1,000,000.00** | support [[Jon Husted]] | Strategic Media Placement Inc. | | SLF PAC | 2017202 | **$621,545.76** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Flexpoint Media | | BlackPAC | 2017033 | **$455,100.00** | **support** [[Sherrod Brown]] | The Pivot Group Inc. | | [[Ohio Flyer PAC]] | 2017115 | **$383,754.00** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Strategic Media Placement Inc. | | [[American Political Action Committee]] | 2017199 | **$272,805.00** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Red Spark Strategy / RRTV Media | | Defend American Jobs | 2017219 | **$208,623.60** | support [[Jon Husted]] | not read at file level | **Derived total: $2,941,828.36.** Pro-Husted $1,208,623.60; anti-Brown $1,278,104.76; pro-Brown $455,100.00. 🔴 **The day's structural finding is a funder, not a figure.** [[Defending Main Street Super PAC]] disclosed, in a Form 3X filed the same day (file **2016989**), a **$2,000,000** receipt from [[Republican Main Street Partnership]] dated **2026-09-28** — and then the $1,000,000 Husted buy a week later. Both ends of the money are on the FEC's wire on one receipt date. See [[Republican Main Street Partnership 2M Defending Main Street October 2026]]. > [!note] One vendor, two committees, opposite sides of the same race > **Strategic Media Placement Inc.** placed [[Defending Main Street Super PAC]]'s $1,000,000 **for** Husted > and [[Ohio Flyer PAC]]'s $383,754.00 **against** Brown, on the same receipt date. Same buyer, same > contest, both ends of the Republican case. That is procurement overlap and establishes no coordination. > It is the vendor's third and fourth load-bearing committee-filing in the vault, one short of the > three-committee threshold at which a buyer earns its own page. > [!note] Watch triggers checked > - **"Any single Ohio-only notice at or above $10M"** (set 2026-10-03). Largest Ohio-only notice on this > date: [[Defending Main Street Super PAC]]'s **$1,065,368.80**. **Did not fire.** > - **"SLF PAC carrying any meaningful support line"** (set 2026-10-03). SLF PAC file 2017202 is 8 lines, > **all oppose**, across 5 states. The committee remains **100.00% negative**. **Did not fire.** > *(Superseded 2026-10-08: this trigger has since fired — see the 2026-10-08 block above.)* > - **A new committee named for Ohio.** 🔴 **FIRED.** [[Buckeye Freedom PAC]] (C00963017) registered on > this receipt date with no money disclosed — one of four in > [[Datwyler Four Super PAC Formation Cluster October 2026]]. The aggregate column on these rows is **not** an Ohio race total; the $2,941,828.36 above is derived by summing the six committees' lines. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-05. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016964.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016989.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017202.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017033.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017115.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017199.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-04 — $2,043,065.34, and the buyer crosses the aisle a fourth time | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[LCV Victory Fund]] | **$2,008,804.75** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | [[C Plus K LLC]] $2,000,000.00 (99.6%) · Defend the Vote $8,749.37 | 4 | 2016820 | | SLF PAC | $34,260.59 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Creative Direct; FCG Media Strategies LLC | 2 | 2016717 | Expenditure date **2026-10-02** on both. The LCV Victory Fund notice was the **largest single filing in the United States** on this receipt date — $2.01M of an $8.12M national tranche. 🔴 **[[C Plus K LLC]] is now on its fourth committee**. The buyer has placed anti-Husted money for [[WinSenate]], [[Duty and Country]] and now the League of Conservation Voters' PAC, and also appears as a payee on [[AFP Action]]'s notice. Three of its four clients spent against the same candidate. The vendor page is [[C Plus K LLC]]. The aggregates on these rows are not race or committee totals. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016820.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016717.fec` **Receipt date 2026-09-30 — $9,909,676.02 across 16 lines and 7 committees.** The second-largest single-race day in that tranche after TX-Sen. All figures from raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | File | |---|---|---|---|---| | [[No Going Back PAC]] | $5,151,145.00 | $2,575,572.50 support [[Jon Husted]] + $2,575,572.50 oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Del Ray Media LLC | 2015798 | | [[Digital Freedom Fund]] | $2,970,198.67 | $1,485,099.33 support Husted + $1,485,099.34 oppose Brown | Minute Mail Consulting Group LLC | 2015656 | | **Retired Americans Action** | $900,645.11 | **oppose Husted** | Sage | 2015652 | | Americans for Prosperity Action | $657,841.41 | oppose Brown | US Postal Service, People Who Think | 2015760 | | American Principles Project PAC | $204,555.00 | oppose Brown | Logan Circle Group LLC | 2015745 | | SLF PAC | $16,000.00 | oppose Brown | — | 2015783 | | [[America PAC]] | $9,290.83 | oppose Brown | — | 2015792 | **Totals that day:** $4,060,671.83 supporting Husted · $4,948,359.08 opposing Brown · **$900,645.11 opposing Husted**. Two things worth keeping separate. **Retired Americans Action is the only committee that day pointed at the Republican**, so its $900,645.11 should not be netted against the pro-Husted total. And **both of the two largest spenders split their buys to the cent** between supporting Husted and opposing Brown — one media or mail buy reported as the two halves IE disclosure requires, not two decisions. Per Rule 6, a daily figure is a first read of that receipt date; late-arriving filings have run as high as +24% on a re-query a day later. Re-derive before quoting. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015798.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015656.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015652.fec` **Receipt date 2026-10-01 — $17,649,380.44 across three committees, for expenditures dated 2026-09-29.** The largest single-race day recorded in this seat, and the first in which the crypto industry outspent both Senate party committees combined. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | File | |---|---|---|---|---| | **Defend American Jobs** ([[Fairshake PAC]]) | **$12,121,214.69** | support [[Jon Husted]] | Main Street Media Group ($11,343,601.80), RBC Media LLC, Dockside Strategies LLC | 2016127 | | [[WinSenate]] | **$5,033,439.93** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | Waterfront Strategies | 2016120 | | SLF PAC ([[Senate Leadership Fund]]) | $494,725.82 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Whistlestop Strategies LLC | 2016104 | **Totals that day:** $12,121,214.69 supporting Husted · $494,725.82 opposing Brown · **$5,033,439.93 opposing Husted**. Recorded as [[Defend American Jobs 12.1M Ohio Senate IE]] and [[WinSenate 23.7M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. Three things worth separating. **The crypto buy is 24 times the party's.** [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s Ohio channel put in $494,725.82 that day; Defend American Jobs put in $12,121,214.69. Ohio is the first of the eight races in [[SLF 342M Senate IE Reservation Program]] where an outside industry has become the dominant pro-Republican spender rather than a supplement to the party. **The crypto buy is also one-sided** — all three lines are filed as *support* for Husted, with nothing against Brown, unlike the matched-to-the-cent splits [[Digital Freedom Fund]] and [[No Going Back PAC]] filed in this race days earlier. And **the $11,343,601.80 media line is one of only a handful of individual Schedule E lines above $10M anywhere in the 2026 cycle.** Smaller lines from other committees push the full race-date figure slightly higher than the three-committee $17,649,380.44; this is a first read of receipt date 2026-10-01 and may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016127.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016120.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016104.fec` **Earlier, receipt date 2026-09-25 — the party committees' own notices.** [[Senate Leadership Fund]] placed **$10,031,142.58 against [[Sherrod Brown]]** in four lines (file 2015242, 43% of a $23.59M eight-race notice — see [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]]), and [[No Going Back PAC]] placed a matched **$2,466,322.50 / $2,466,322.50** pair supporting Husted and opposing Brown (file 2015230, see [[No Going Back PAC 28.5M Multi-Race IE September 2026]]). On receipt date 2026-09-24 [[WinSenate]] placed **$8,553,835.34 against Husted** across five lines — 40% of that notice — recorded at [[WinSenate 21.2M Senate Map IE September 2026]]. **Running total of Form 24 money recorded on this page:** $9,909,676.02 (09-30) + $17,649,380.44 (10-01) + $14,963,787.58 (09-25, SLF and No Going Back, counting both halves of the matched pair) + $8,553,835.34 (09-24, WinSenate) = **$51,076,679.38**, derived by summing the filings cited above. This is a floor, not a cycle total: it covers only the receipt dates cited here, and no aggregate column was used to compute it. **Receipt date 2026-10-02 — $18,395,439.18 across 8 lines, pointed in both directions, and the most expensive single race-day in this file.** Figures derived from the raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | SLF PAC | **$9,967,064.46** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Flexpoint Media and 4 others | 3 | 2016506 | | [[Defend the Vote]] | **$7,055,990.46** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | Waterfront Strategies Inc. | 2 | 2016395 | | [[America PAC]] | $498,634.26 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | IMGE LLC | 2 | 2016516 | | unread smaller notices | $873,750.00 | **support** [[Sherrod Brown]] | — | 1 | — | **$17,023,054.92 of it is the two big notices firing at each other on one receipt date** — SLF against [[Sherrod Brown]], [[Defend the Vote]] against [[Jon Husted]] — out of a $52,412,667.67 tranche nationwide. Those two notices alone are **32.5%** of that tranche; counting all 8 Ohio lines, the race took **35.1% of all independent-expenditure money filed that day**. **SLF PAC has now placed $19,998,207.04 against [[Sherrod Brown]] across two notices nine days apart** ($10,031,142.58 on 2026-09-25, file 2015242; $9,967,064.46 on 2026-10-02, file 2016506) — see [[SLF 22.5M Senate IE October 2026]] and [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]]. The October notice carries **no support line at all**, in any race. [[Defend the Vote]] (FEC C00764233, treasurer Brian Lemek) is the largest single buy against [[Jon Husted]] recorded in this vault. It sits **below** the $10M single-buy threshold that creates a Deal page, so it is logged here rather than given one. The aggregate column ($41,673,108.74 on the SLF rows) is **not** an Ohio race total. A daily figure is a first read; receipt date 2026-10-01 gained **+12.9%** between the 2026-10-02 count and the 2026-10-03 recount. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016506.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016395.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016516.fec` **Receipt date 2026-10-03 — $7,899,980.58 across 19 lines, and for the first time this autumn nothing was spent making the case for [[Sherrod Brown]].** Figures derived from the raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per Rule 4d, amendment-form rows excluded per Rule 4a. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[Duty and Country]] | **$3,211,060.35** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | C Plus K LLC | 2 | 2016680 | | [[WinSenate]] | **$2,297,599.57** | oppose [[Jon Husted]] | C Plus K LLC | 1 | 2016676 | | [[AFP Action]] | **$1,138,997.75** | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 5 | 2016600 | | [[AFP Action]] | $929,997.75 | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 7 | 2016600 | | The Sentinel Action Fund | $161,162.58 | oppose [[Sherrod Brown]] | Connection Strategy LLC | 2 | 2016652 | | The Sentinel Action Fund | $161,162.58 | **support** [[Jon Husted]] | Connection Strategy LLC | 2 | 2016652 | **Totals: $5,508,659.92 against [[Jon Husted]]; $1,300,160.33 against [[Sherrod Brown]]; $1,091,160.33 for [[Jon Husted]]; $0.00 for [[Sherrod Brown]].** Ohio took **24.5%** of the $32,227,742.09 filed nationwide on this receipt date — the fourth consecutive day the race has taken a double-digit share of all independent-expenditure money in the United States. 🔴 **Two committees, one Washington suite, one buyer, one target, one day.** [[Duty and Country]] (FEC **C00666388**, treasurer **Booth Goodwin**) and [[WinSenate]] (FEC **C00865444**, treasurer **Rebecca Lambe**) both file from **1032 15th Street NW Ste 247, Washington DC 20005**, and both placed anti-Husted money through **C Plus K LLC** on expenditure date 2026-10-01. Together: **$5,508,659.92**. This is the Democratic-side counterpart of the shared-infrastructure pattern recorded on the Republican side at [[State-Branded Super PAC Template]], and the only reason any of it is visible is that Form 24 requires naming the payee. Duty and Country's running aggregate equals its notice exactly, so this appears to be its first Ohio spending of the general. See [[Duty and Country]]. **[[AFP Action]] bought both sides, which nothing else in this race has done.** Its notice (file 2016600, $10,490,289.14 in total across five Senate races) is **44.7% support / 55.3% oppose** overall, and in Ohio it filed $929,997.75 for [[Jon Husted]] and $1,138,997.75 against [[Sherrod Brown]] — a mail and field program, not broadcast: 90.3% of the notice went to In Pursuit Of, LLC and the second-largest payee on it is the **United States Postal Service**. See [[AFP Action 10.5M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. The Sentinel Action Fund's $322,325.16 is split to the cent the same way. > [!note] Two watch triggers checked, neither fired > - **"Any single Ohio-only notice at or above $10M"** (set 2026-10-03). The largest Ohio-only notice on > this date is [[Duty and Country]]'s **$3,211,060.35**. **Did not fire.** > - **"SLF PAC carrying any meaningful support line"** (set 2026-10-03). SLF PAC's notice on this date > (file 2016566, $535,818.49) is **four lines, all oppose, none in Ohio**. The committee remains > **100.00% negative**. **Did not fire.** > *(Superseded 2026-10-08: this trigger has since fired — see the 2026-10-08 block above.)* The aggregate column on these rows is **not** an Ohio race total. The 2026-10-03 figures are a **first read** of that receipt date; receipt date 2026-10-02 gained **+49.0%** between the 2026-10-03 count and the 2026-10-04 recount, which is the largest late arrival measured in this window. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016680.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016676.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016600.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016652.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016566.fec` ## Intel notes - **Watch the labor vote**: Brown's 2024 loss was closer in union households than any other Democrat's statewide; a Teamsters re-engagement would be a leading indicator. - **Trump tariff backlash in manufacturing counties**: ties tightly to the Ohio electorate; if tariffs produce layoffs in Toledo/Youngstown/Cleveland metros, Brown's 2024 playbook works better in 2026. - DeWine's approval as Husted's patron — DeWine's own 2026 retirement from the governorship also affects the state-level GOP fundraising climate. ## Related KB entities - [[JD Vance]] — whose seat this is - [[Mike DeWine]] — appointer of Husted - TBD: Ohio Republican Party ecosystem map ## Content leads - **Blog**: Sherrod Brown's comeback as a test of whether economic populism still works for Democrats - **[[YouTube]]**: Husted vs. Brown explainer — two Ohio political archetypes in collision - **Breaking**: primary night May 5 is a fast-turnaround content opportunity ## Sources - [Inside Elections — Florida and Ohio Appointments Fill Out Senate Battlefield](https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/florida-and-ohio-appointments-moody-husted) - [Cook Political Report Senate Ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings)