# New Hampshire U.S. Senate 2026 > [!success] Primary result — September 8, 2026 > **Chris Pappas (D) 65%** over Karishma Manzur. **John E. Sununu (R) 68.5%** over Scott Brown. > November matchup for Jeanne Shaheen's open seat: **PAPPAS vs. SUNUNU**. Inside Elections moved the race from Tilt D to **Toss-Up** on September 3 after UNH showed Sununu 45-43. ## Snapshot Open seat after Jeanne Shaheen's 2025 retirement announcement. The general election is a near-perfect tie: **Pappas 45, Sununu 44** (Emerson, March 2026). U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (NH-01) is the clear Democratic frontrunner with $4.2M COH and has already reserved $9M in general-election TV from September 8. The Republican field is led by **[[John E. Sununu]]** — the former U.S. Senator (2003–2009), brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu — who led [[Scott Brown]] 48–19 in primary polling. Cook rates Lean D. This is the cycle's true battleground for the Democratic firewall. > [!info] Status as of 2026-08-31 — written before the primary, kept as the record of what the field looked like going in > **The ballots are set and nothing has changed the shape of the race.** The Sept 8 primary is the second-to-last of the entire cycle (only Delaware, Sept 15, comes after). Pappas faces only Karishma Manzur on the Democratic side; Sununu faces Brown on the Republican side. Note the September 8 date is doing double duty — it is also the last day Missouri courts can add questions to that state's November ballot, so expect the national political-news bandwidth that night to be split. > > Watch the Pappas TV reservation: **$9M booked to begin September 8**, i.e. the night of his own primary. That is a campaign treating the primary as a formality and buying the general early, which is a real signal about where the Democratic side thinks the risk is. ## Incumbent (retiring) - **[[Jeanne Shaheen]]** (D) — senator since 2009. Former Governor of New Hampshire (1997–2003) — first woman elected governor of NH. Three Senate terms. Announced retirement 2025 (part of the Democratic retirement wave — Peters, Smith, Durbin, Shaheen, plus Lee/Booker holding). ## Democratic primary (September 8, 2026) - **Chris Pappas** — U.S. Rep (NH-01) since 2019. Former NH Executive Council member. Pastore/restaurateur (family's Puritan Backroom). Q1 2026: **$3.3M raised, $4.2M COH**. Reserved **$9M in general-election TV from September 8** — an extraordinary pre-commitment. - **Karishma Manzur** — progressive activist; minor primary challenger - **Jared Sullivan** — state representative; minor Pappas is the presumptive nominee. ## Republican primary (September 8, 2026) - **John E. Sununu** — former U.S. Senator (2003–2009, defeated by Shaheen in 2008). Former U.S. Rep (NH-01, 1997–2003). Son of former NH Gov. and G.H.W. Bush WH Chief of Staff John H. Sununu; brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu. Polling **48% in GOP primary** per Emerson. - **Scott Brown** — former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2010–2013); moved to NH and ran unsuccessfully 2014. Polling 19%. **Emerson (March 2026)**: Sununu 48%, Brown 19% in R primary. ## Ratings history - **2026-10-06 — Cook: Lean D** (from Toss Up) - 2026-04 — Cook: Lean D (later moved to Toss Up) - No movement expected; race is genuinely close ## Key dates - 2026-06-12 — NH filing deadline - 2026-09-08 — NH primaries - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Pappas Q1: $3.3M raised, $4.2M COH, $9M TV reserved — dominant D position - Sununu Q1: $1.5M raised (less well-capitalized) - NRSC / DSCC: both treating as top-4 race; expect $40M+ total spending - Pappas's $9M pre-reservation is the strongest D pre-commitment in the cycle ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $1,889,901.04, and the first positive dollar for Sununu New Hampshire took **$1,889,901.04** across **11 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09** — **$1,883,279.03 (99.65%) negative**. **$1,844,204.03 is aimed at [[Chris Pappas]]** and **$39,075.00 at [[John E. Sununu]]**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$1,444,235.59** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | | The Sentinel Action Fund | 2019113 | $287,615.00 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2018837 | $105,731.44 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019121 | $39,075.00 | oppose [[John E. Sununu]] | | [[America PAC]] | 2019090 | $13,244.01 | **support** [[John E. Sununu]] $6,622.01 · oppose [[Chris Pappas]] $6,622.00 | **Derived total: $1,889,901.04.** 🔴 **A four-sweep watch item closes here.** Since 2026-10-05 every Republican-side dollar recorded in this race had been an attack on [[Chris Pappas]], and the standing trigger was *whether anyone buys a positive dollar for [[John E. Sununu]]*. **[[America PAC]] did, on file 2019090: $6,622.01 through IMGE LLC** — paired to the cent against $6,622.00 opposing [[Chris Pappas]], which is the split-to-the-cent invoice pattern rather than a strategy change. **The trigger has fired, and the amount is 0.35% of the day's money in this race.** These rows are not summed into a race total. This is a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while that day's filings were still arriving, so the figure may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019113.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018837.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019121.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019090.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — $4,552,619.45, 90.66% negative, four committees New Hampshire took **$4,552,619.45** across **6 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-08** — **$4,127,619.45 (90.66%) negative**. The two largest lines are within **$492.11** of each other and point in opposite directions. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[No Going Back PAC]]** | **2018548** | **$2,013,899.00** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | [[MHB Media Inc]] | | **[[WinSenate]]** | **2018482** | **$2,013,406.89** | oppose [[John E. Sununu]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | **$425,000.00** | **support** [[Chris Pappas]] | AL Media LLC | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | $90,074.68 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | Majority Strategies LLC | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | $8,000.00 | oppose [[John E. Sununu]] | AL Media LLC | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | $2,238.88 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | Whistlestop Strategies LLC | **Derived totals:** against [[Chris Pappas]] **$2,106,212.56**; against [[John E. Sununu]] **$2,021,406.89**; for [[Chris Pappas]] **$425,000.00**. Sum **$4,552,619.45**. **Nobody bought a positive dollar for [[John E. Sununu]] on this date.** Every Republican-side dollar in the race is an attack on [[Chris Pappas]], which matches the pattern recorded on 2026-10-07 and is now four sweeps old. Recorded at [[No Going Back PAC 23.3M Multi-Race IE October 2026]] and [[WinSenate 19.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. The aggregate columns are not a New Hampshire race total. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-08. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018548.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018482.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018550.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $2,391,874.15, [[AFP Action]] 2.3:1 negative | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$1,628,252.87** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$707,016.06** | support [[John E. Sununu]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | [[AB PAC]] | 2018051 | $56,605.22 | **support** [[Chris Pappas]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] | **Derived total: $2,391,874.15.** Anti-Pappas $1,628,252.87 · pro-Sununu $707,016.06 · pro-Pappas $56,605.22. New Hampshire takes **$2.34M from [[AFP Action]] at a 2.3:1 negative ratio** — the committee's third-largest race on a $16,178,234.22 notice, in the cycle's closest Senate contest. [[AB PAC]]'s $56,605.22 is a token billboard position by comparison. See [[AFP Action 16.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — $50,972.00 against Pappas | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Lines | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[American Political Action Committee]] | **2017199** | **$50,972.00** | **oppose** [[Chris Pappas]] | 1 | Red Spark Strategy / RRTV Media | One line, from a committee filing out of a Bellevue, Washington PO box that hit **seven Senate races in a single notice** — New Hampshire was its fourth-largest leg. First appearance of this committee in this race. First read of receipt date 2026-10-05 per Rule 6. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017199.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-04 — $63,226.97, all of it against Pappas | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[Sentinel Action Fund]] | **$61,200.75** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | Storytellers Group LLC | 1 | 2016853 | | SLF PAC | $2,026.22 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | Creative Direct; FCG Media Strategies LLC | 1 | 2016717 | Expenditure date **2026-10-02**. A quiet day in this race after the $1.95M of 2026-10-03. > [!note] Sununu's own committee filed too > Sununu Senator filed an **amended Form 1** on 2026-10-04 (file 2016706) disclosing **9 > joint-fundraising representatives**, three of which also appear on [[Susan Collins]]'s amendment in > [[ME-Sen-2026]] the same day. See > [[Collins and Sununu Joint Fundraising Disclosures October 2026]]. The [[Sentinel Action Fund]] notice is also the one whose signer, Nicholas Stoltzfus, signed [[Lead Maine Committee]]'s notice six minutes later. The aggregates are not race totals. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016853.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016717.fec` **Receipt date 2026-10-02 — $1,474,765.07 across 2 lines, all of it opposing [[Chris Pappas]], all of it from one committee.** Figures derived from the raw filing; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---| | SLF PAC | **$1,474,765.07** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | 2 | 2016506 | Prior tranche, receipt date 2026-09-25: SLF PAC **$1,452,858.54** opposing [[Chris Pappas]] across 3 lines (file 2015242). The two notices are nine days apart and within $22,000 of each other — a steady weekly rate rather than a surge. **$2,927,623.61 from SLF PAC across both.** No committee has filed a notice supporting him in either tranche. See [[SLF 22.5M Senate IE October 2026]] and [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]]. The aggregate column ($6,059,372.03) is **not** a race total. These are first reads. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016506.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-03 — $1,945,385.93 across 15 lines, both sides for the first time | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[AFP Action]] | **$1,101,411.54** | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 8 | 2016600 | | [[AFP Action]] | $832,618.39 | **support** John E. Sununu | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 6 | 2016600 | | SLF PAC | $11,356.00 | oppose [[Chris Pappas]] | Jamestown Associates | 1 | 2016566 | **Totals: $1,112,767.54 against [[Chris Pappas]]; $832,618.39 for John E. Sununu; $0.00 for Pappas.** 🔴 **This is the first recorded independent expenditure supporting a candidate in this race.** Everything on this page before today is anti-Pappas money — SLF PAC $2,927,623.61 across two notices, with no committee filing a support line in either tranche. [[AFP Action]]'s $832,618.39 for John E. Sununu is the first dollar spent making a positive case for anyone in New Hampshire. It is also **mail, not television**: 90.3% of the AFP Action notice goes to In Pursuit Of, LLC, with the United States Postal Service as the second-largest payee. New Hampshire's share of that notice is $1,934,029.93, or 18.4%. See [[AFP Action 10.5M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. The aggregate column ($6,070,728.03 on the SLF row, $4,802,094.35 on the AFP Action rows) is **not** a race total. These are **first reads**. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016600.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016566.fec` ## Intel notes - **The Emerson tie (Pappas 45, Sununu 44)**: this is the cleanest Senate battleground of the cycle. The race will determine whether Democrats hold the Northeast firewall or break open the competitive map. - **John E. Sununu's return**: the former senator lost to Shaheen in 2008 by 7 points. His return 18 years later creates an unusual "rematch by proxy" — Sununu vs. a Democratic seatholder originally elevated by defeating *him*. Narrative hook. - **Chris Sununu's non-candidacy**: the former Governor was the highest-profile prospective candidate. His decision not to run (preferring to stay out of Washington) creates the opening for his brother John. Worth tracking if Chris endorses. - **Scott Brown structural weakness**: Brown has now lost Senate races in two states (MA 2012, NH 2014). A third Senate bid at 19% in primary polling is essentially a vanity run. - **Pappas's $9M TV pre-reservation**: extraordinary general-election commitment nine months before the election. Signals Democratic confidence and locks in lower ad rates before demand surge. ## Related KB entities - [[Jeanne Shaheen]] — retiring incumbent - [[Chris Pappas]] — Democratic nominee - [[John E. Sununu]] — Republican nominee - [[Karishma Manzur]] — lost the Democratic primary - [[Scott Brown]] — lost the Republican primary - TBD: Sununu political dynasty (Concepts/ entry) ## Content leads - **Blog**: "The Shaheen-Sununu Rematch by Proxy" — narrative hook on 2008 rematch dynamics - **Breaking**: Emerson 45-44 is the closest public battleground poll of any Senate race — ripe for real-time coverage - **Data**: Pappas's $9M pre-reservation vs. historical pre-election TV commitments - **[[YouTube]]**: explainer on the Sununu political dynasty (John H., Chris, John E.) ## Sources - [Wikipedia — 2026 NH Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire) - [Ballotpedia — NH Senate 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2026) - [Emerson — Sununu leads GOP, ties Pappas](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/) - [Pappas Q1 fundraising + TV reservation](https://chrispappas.org/2026/04/chris-pappas-for-senate-announces-q1-fundraising-haul-of-3-3-million-general-election-tv-ad-reservations/)