# Montana U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot Montana's first open Senate seat since 1976 is a **four-way general election that Republicans are favored to win because the anti-Republican vote is split in two.** [[Steve Daines]] withdrew at 4:55 p.m. on March 4 — three minutes after [[Kurt Alme]] filed and five minutes before the deadline — and Alme, the former U.S. Attorney endorsed the same week by Trump, Daines, Gianforte and Sheehy, took the June 2 Republican primary with 76%. Democrats nominated retired Air Force Lt. Col. [[Alani Bankhead]] (43.6%). Former University of Montana president [[Seth Bodnar]] qualified as an independent with the endorsements of Jon Tester, Max Baucus, [[Joe Manchin]], [[Adam Kinzinger]], ex-Gov. Marc Racicot, the Montana AFL-CIO and VoteVets. The whole race turned on whether Bankhead would step aside so Bodnar could consolidate — the [[Dan Osborn]] model from Nebraska 2024, applied to an open seat. **She did not.** At the August 10 withdrawal deadline she stayed in ("not only no, but hell no"). Polling averages through early August: Alme 44.6, Bodnar 26.0, Bankhead 22.0. Head-to-head, Alme–Bodnar has polled between 51–49 and 44–50; Alme–Bankhead runs 52–59 for Alme. Sabato moved the race from Likely R to **Safe R on August 12** — two days after Bankhead's decision. ## Retiring incumbent - **[[Steve Daines]]** (R) — senator 2015–2027, former NRSC chair. Endorsed Alme on the way out. The state GOP responded to the last-minute switch by declining to endorse in any federal race this cycle. ## How the nominations were decided (June 2, 2026) ### Republican primary | Candidate | Votes | % | |---|---|---| | **Kurt Alme** | 128,716 | **76.1** | | Lee Calhoun | — | 14.1 | | Charles WalkingChild | — | 9.7 | ### Democratic primary | Candidate | Votes | % | |---|---|---| | **Alani Bankhead** | 48,772 | **43.6** | | Reilly Neill | — | 33.0 | | Black Wolf | — | 13.1 | | Kehoe / Hummert | — | 10.3 | Bankhead had raised $23,884 by the primary; Progressive Vet PAC spent $592,000 boosting her, and the Sheehy-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC ran ads against Neill — Republican money helped pick the Democratic nominee least likely to clear the field for Bodnar. ## General election — four candidates - **[[Kurt Alme]]** (R), 59 — U.S. Attorney for Montana 2017–2020 and March 2025–March 2026; Montana Dept. of Revenue director under Gov. Martz; Harvard J.D. $1.98M raised through June 30. - **[[Alani Bankhead]]** (D) — 21-year Air Force officer (human-intelligence operations in Iraq, a Kuwait command, counterintelligence), leadership coach from Helena; never held office. $58,829 raised through June 30. - **[[Seth Bodnar]]** (I), 47 — University of Montana president 2018–January 2026; West Point, Rhodes Scholar, Green Beret lieutenant colonel, GE executive. Qualified with 21,284 accepted signatures (13,327 required), the first independent on a Montana federal ballot since 2022. $3.24M raised through June 30 — the most of anyone in the race — plus $1M+ from Montana Freedom PAC since mid-July. - **Kyle Austin** (L) — disavowed by the state Libertarian Party. $262K raised. | Poll / average | Alme | Bodnar | Bankhead | |---|---|---|---| | FiftyPlusOne average through Aug 4 | 44.6 | 26.0 | 22.0 | | Tavern Research, July (Alme–Bodnar only) | 51 | 49 | — | | GQR (D), July (Alme–Bodnar only) | 44 | 50 | — | | Tavern, May and June (Alme–Bodnar only) | 50 | 50 | — | Nearly every public poll is partisan-sponsored. No debate has been announced; the montana.edu and ExploreBigSky "debate" pages that surface in searches are 2020 and 2024 items. ## Ratings history - Pre-March: Solid R → Inside Elections briefly Likely R after Daines's exit → back to Solid R (Aug 6). Cook Solid R (Aug 20). **Sabato Likely R → Safe R, August 12.** ## Key dates - 2026-03-04 — Daines withdraws; Alme and Bodnar file - 2026-06-02 — primaries (held) - 2026-08-10 — withdrawal deadline; Bankhead stays in - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Intel notes - **The Osborn model requires the Democrat to leave, and no mechanism forces it.** Nebraska worked because Democrats never fielded a candidate. Montana's party nominated one, PAC money on both sides made sure she would not fold, and the independent with the most money and the broadest endorsement list in the race is polling second. Sabato's move to Safe R on August 12 is the forecasters pricing that in. - **The pre-arranged exit.** The Daines withdrawal, Alme's filing three minutes earlier, and the same-week four-way endorsement wall were coordinated; the state party's refusal to endorse in federal races was the protest. The vault's earlier "three theories" about Daines's reasons are moot — the mechanism is what matters. - **Republican money in the Democratic primary** (More Jobs, Less Government against Neill) is the cleanest 2026 example of a party spending to choose its opponent. - **Bodnar's coalition** — Tester, Baucus, Manchin, Kinzinger, Racicot, the AFL-CIO — is the post-partisan center's full roster, and it is on track to lose to a 76%-primary Republican in a state Tester held four times. File under what the center can and cannot do without a party. ## Related KB entities - [[Steve Daines]] · [[Kurt Alme]] · [[Alani Bankhead]] · [[Seth Bodnar]] - [[Dan Osborn]] — the Nebraska precedent - [[Tim Sheehy]] · [[Greg Gianforte]] · [[MAGA]] ## Content leads - **Blog**: "Why the Osborn model failed in Montana" — the withdrawal deadline as the hinge. - **[[YouTube]]**: Bodnar the independent — the résumé the center dreams of, and the arithmetic that beats it. ## Outside spending ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $595,954.02, and [[High Plains PAC]] enters Montana | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[High Plains PAC]]** | **2017699** | **$515,000.00** | support [[Kurt Alme]] | [[Advocacy Architects]] | | [[AB PAC]] | 2018051 | $80,954.02 | **support** [[Seth Bodnar]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2017989 | $21,034.54 / $21,034.54 | MT House, support / oppose, split to the cent | [[In Pursuit Of]] | **Derived total: $638,023.10.** Pro-Alme $515,000.00 · pro-Bodnar $80,954.02 · House $42,069.08. 🔴 **Montana is the largest position on [[High Plains PAC]]'s first expenditure outside Ohio and Wyoming**. The committee is a Wyoming-branded super PAC funded **90.8% by a single Wyoming 501(c)(4)**, [[Senate Opportunity Fund]], and its entire October notice is **100% support** across four states, sole payee [[Advocacy Architects]], every line a round number. See [[Senate Opportunity Fund 1.97M to High Plains PAC]]. [[AB PAC]]'s $80,954.02 for [[Seth Bodnar]] is the **only non-Democratic position** on its 253-line notice — a Democratic committee's billboards behind an independent. See [[AB PAC 22.8M Billboard IE October 2026]]. ## Sources - [Daily Montanan — Daines withdraws from re-election (Mar 4, 2026)](https://dailymontanan.com/2026/03/04/daines-withdraws-from-re-election/) - [Montana Secretary of State — 2026 primary results](https://electionresults.mt.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY) - [Montana Free Press — Bankhead still in the running (Aug 10, 2026)](https://montanafreepress.org/2026/08/10/bankhead-still-in-the-running/) - [AP — Bodnar launches independent bid](https://apnews.com/article/election-senate-daines-montana-independent-bodnar-3c34598e7d67aadb7cf3dea47bad689a) - [Sabato's Crystal Ball — 2026 rating changes](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-rating-changes/)