# Minnesota U.S. Senate 2026 > [!success] PRIMARY RESULT — August 11, 2026 > **DFL: [[Peggy Flanagan]] wins, ~58.7%** — def. [[Angie Craig]] ~39.7% (AP call; Flanagan ~364,167 votes to Craig ~246,157 with ~86% reporting). Four minor candidates split under 2%. Craig conceded election night and endorsed Flanagan. > **GOP: [[Michele Tafoya]] wins, 51.6%** — def. party-endorsed [[Adam Schwarze]] and 2024 nominee [[Royce White]] (AP call). > **General election matchup (Nov 3, 2026): Peggy Flanagan (DFL) vs. Michele Tafoya (R).** Cook rating unchanged at **Likely D**. > > Both the DFL convention endorsement (Flanagan) and the GOP convention endorsement (Schwarze) were tested at the ballot box — the DFL endorsement held, the GOP endorsement did not. ## Snapshot Open seat after Tina Smith's early-2025 retirement announcement. **Both primaries resolved August 11, 2026.** The DFL contest was a Sanders-vs-Buttigieg proxy fight — Lt. Gov. **Peggy Flanagan** (progressive, White Earth Ojibwe citizen, Sanders- and Warren-endorsed, DFL convention endorsee) vs. U.S. Rep. **Angie Craig** (moderate, Buttigieg-aligned, dominant fundraiser) — and Flanagan won by roughly 19 points despite being heavily outspent, on the strength of anti-ICE grassroots energy and Craig's 2025 vote expanding ICE authority. On the Republican side, former NBC Sports sideline reporter **Michele Tafoya** took 51.6%, beating the state party's endorsed candidate Adam Schwarze and 2024 nominee Royce White. November is **Flanagan vs. Tafoya**; Cook holds the seat at Likely D. ## Incumbent (retiring) - **[[Tina Smith]]** (D) — senator since January 2018 (appointed to fill Al Franken's seat after his resignation). Won 2018 special and 2020 regular elections. Former Lt. Governor of Minnesota (2015–2018). Announced retirement early 2025. Has not publicly endorsed in the DFL primary. ## Democratic (DFL) primary (August 11, 2026) — RESOLVED | Candidate | Share | Votes (~86% in) | Result | |---|---|---|---| | Peggy Flanagan | ~58.7% | ~364,167 | **WON** | | Angie Craig | ~39.7% | ~246,157 | conceded, endorsed Flanagan | | Kurt Michael Anderson | 0.6% | 3,909 | — | | Billy Nord | 0.4% | 2,575 | — | | George H. Kalberer | 0.3% | 1,823 | — | | Peter John Murgic | 0.2% | 1,438 | — | - **Peggy Flanagan** — Lt. Governor of Minnesota since 2019 (under Gov. [[Tim Walz]]); previously state representative. Member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe; would be the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate. Endorsed by [[Bernie Sanders]] and [[Elizabeth Warren]]; won the DFL convention endorsement. Q1 2026: $811K COH. - **Angie Craig** — U.S. Rep (MN-02) since 2019. Former medical-device executive; centrist, Buttigieg-aligned, known for flipping a suburban R-held seat. Q1 2026: **$3.8M COH**. Craig and allied outside groups **vastly outspent** Flanagan's side — and lost by ~19 points. **The money-vs.-movement question resolved decisively for movement.** Early GQR polling had Flanagan up 49–36; she beat that margin. The decisive turn came over winter 2025–26, when fallout from the Trump administration's immigration crackdown in Minnesota let Flanagan hammer Craig over a 2025 vote expanding ICE authority. Craig later expressed regret for the vote but had already fallen so far with the party's left that she skipped the DFL endorsing convention entirely. ## Republican primary (August 11, 2026) — RESOLVED - **Michele Tafoya — WON, 51.6%** (AP call). Former NBC Sports sideline reporter turned conservative commentator; entered the race January 2026. Raised **$2.6M+**; endorsed by Tony Dungy. **Finished second at the May state convention in Duluth** and won the primary anyway — name recognition and money beat the party endorsement. - **Adam Schwarze** — former Navy SEAL and Marine; held the **Republican Party of Minnesota's convention endorsement** and lost. - **Royce White** — former NBA player, [[Alex Jones]]-adjacent podcaster and **2024 Senate nominee** (lost to [[Amy Klobuchar]] 56–40). Finished behind both. His third-place showing is the clearest evidence yet that his ~40% 2024 result was a party-line floor, not a personal constituency. No Republican has been *elected* to the U.S. Senate from Minnesota since Norm Coleman in 2002. (Rod Grams's 1994 win is the prior instance; the KB previously carried 1994 as the last GOP Senate win, which is wrong — Coleman won in 2002.) ## General election (November 3, 2026) **[[Peggy Flanagan]] (DFL) vs. [[Michele Tafoya]] (R).** Cook: Likely D. - **Tafoya's line of attack**: Minnesota's state-program fraud scandals. Primary-night framing — "$9 billion was stolen from all of us taxpayers" — plus test scores, crime, and business flight. Expect the [[Tim Walz]] administration's fraud response to be run directly at Flanagan as sitting Lt. Governor. - **Flanagan's coalition**: the progressive/anti-ICE grassroots that just delivered a 19-point primary win, plus the historic-first frame (no Native American woman has been elected to the U.S. Senate). - **Open question**: whether a mainstream-broadcast celebrity nominee raises the Republican ceiling above White's 40% baseline in a state that hasn't elected a Republican senator in 24 years. ## Ratings history - 2026-04 — Cook: Likely D (current) - Earlier 2026: Lean D - Shifted from Lean D to Likely D when GOP top-tier recruitment failed ## Key dates - 2026-05 — Republican state convention, Duluth: **Schwarze endorsed, Tafoya second** - 2026-06-02 — Minnesota filing deadline - 2026-06 — DFL state convention: **Flanagan endorsed** (Craig skipped) - 2026-08-11 — Minnesota primaries: **Flanagan and Tafoya nominated** ✅ - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Craig: $3.8M COH (Q1) — DFL-primary financial leader; she and allied outside groups **vastly outspent** Flanagan's side and lost. Combined spending put the race on pace for record Minnesota Senate outlays. - Flanagan: $811K COH (Q1) — closed on DFL convention endorsement plus Sanders/Warren-network small-dollar energy - Tafoya: **$2.6M+ raised** — decisive money advantage in the GOP field - White: modest; MAGA small-dollar - NRSC / DSCC treatment: DSCC not investing heavily (Likely D); NRSC largely writing off ## Intel notes - **Sanders vs. Buttigieg in microcosm — resolved for Sanders.** Flanagan's ~19-point win over a candidate whose side vastly outspent her is the cleanest 2026 Senate-primary datapoint on the post-2024 Democratic fault line. Money did not close a movement gap. - **ICE / immigration messaging was the hinge.** Craig's 2025 vote expanding ICE authority became the primary's central artifact once the Trump immigration crackdown reached Minnesota. Her regret came too late; she skipped her own party's endorsing convention. Read this as evidence that immigration-enforcement accommodation is now a liability inside Democratic primaries, not an electability asset. - **The GOP endorsement failed as a gate.** Schwarze had the state party's endorsement and lost to a self-funded-adjacent celebrity who came second at convention. Track this alongside other 2026 races where convention/endorsement machinery lost to name recognition and money. - **Royce White's ceiling is now a floor confirmed.** Third place in his own party's primary, two years after being its nominee. His 40% in 2024 was party-line voting, not a personal base — a useful correction to "conspiracy-media personality builds a durable constituency" assumptions. - **Fraud as the 2026 Minnesota Republican frame.** Tafoya is running the state-program fraud scandals directly at Flanagan as sitting Lt. Governor. This is the general-election terrain to watch, and it is a governance-competence attack rather than a culture-war one. - **Flanagan's identity stakes**: a November win makes her the first Native American woman elected to the U.S. Senate. ## Related KB entities - [[Tina Smith]] — retiring incumbent - [[Peggy Flanagan]] — DFL nominee; would be first Native woman senator - [[Michele Tafoya]] — Republican nominee - [[Angie Craig]] — lost DFL primary; Buttigieg-network moderate - [[Royce White]] — lost R primary; 2024 nominee, conspiracy-media figure - [[Adam Schwarze]] — lost R primary despite state party endorsement ## Content leads - **Blog**: "Money Lost to Movement in Minnesota" — Craig's side vastly outspent Flanagan and lost by 19; what that says about the 2028 Sanders/Buttigieg lanes - **Blog**: "The Endorsement Doesn't Hold Anymore" — DFL endorsement held, GOP endorsement didn't; convention machinery vs. name recognition in 2026 - **[[YouTube]]**: profile of Peggy Flanagan — the Lt. Gov. one election from being the first Native American woman in the Senate - **YouTube**: the Royce White arc — from party nominee to third place in two years - **Data**: general-election tracker on the "fraud" attack line vs. Flanagan's ICE-resistance frame - **Merch**: Flanagan-first (Native woman senator) merch — now live-relevant through November ## Outside spending ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — [[AB PAC]] $1,380,535.83 for [[Peggy Flanagan]], all billboards | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AB PAC]]** | **2018051** | **$1,380,535.83** | **support** [[Peggy Flanagan]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] / Target Platform | Minnesota is the **fifth-largest position** on [[AB PAC]]'s $22,762,650.41 notice and the largest in a race not generally treated as a battleground — 4 lines, expenditure date 2026-10-05, **100% support, billboards**. See [[AB PAC 22.8M Billboard IE October 2026]]. ## Sources - [Wikipedia — Minnesota Senate 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Minnesota) - [NBC News — Angie Craig launches Senate run](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/rep-angie-craig-launches-senate-run-minnesota-ahead-competitive-democr-rcna203371) - [Axios — Flanagan/Craig ICE messaging and DFL delegates](https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2026/03/30/minnesota-senate-primary-flanagan-craig-ice-raids-dfl-endorsement-delegates) - [The Center Square — Minnesota Senate fundraising](https://www.thecentersquare.com/minnesota/article_5db19f2b-cdc8-467e-b890-430aef0b9846.html) - [Cook Political — Smith retirement moves MN to Lean D](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/minnesota-senate/smiths-retirement-minnesota-senate-moves-lean-democrat) - [Axios Twin Cities — Flanagan wins DFL primary (Aug 12, 2026)](https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2026/08/12/peggy-flanagan-democratic-primary-minnesota-senate-results) - [Axios Twin Cities — Tafoya wins GOP primary (Aug 12, 2026)](https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2026/08/12/michele-tafoya-republican-senate-primary-minnesota-results) - [FOX 9 — Tafoya wins Republican nomination, 51.6% (AP call)](https://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-senate-primary-election-results-gop-2026) - [CBS Minnesota — Tafoya wins GOP primary, will face Flanagan](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/michele-tafoya-us-senate-minnesota-republican-primary-results/) - [NBC News — Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan wins Minnesota Democratic Senate primary](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/progressive-peggy-flanagan-wins-minnesota-democratic-senate-primary-rcna591627)