# Michigan U.S. Senate 2026 > [!important] PRIMARY RESULT (Aug 4, 2026) > **[[Abdul El-Sayed]] won the Democratic primary**, edging [[Haley Stevens]] **48.6%–47.4%** (735,625 to 716,222 with ~95% counted as of the morning of Aug 5; NBC News and Decision Desk HQ projections — AP had not yet called it at that count). [[Mallory McMorrow]], who **dropped out July 5** but remained on the ballot, drew ~4% and endorsed El-Sayed on election night ("proud to give Abdul my full endorsement"). Geographic split: El-Sayed carried Kent County ~61–35; Stevens carried Oakland (~52–45) and led Wayne (~51–46) — El-Sayed won on the rest of the state. > > **General election (Nov 3, 2026): [[Abdul El-Sayed]] (D) vs. [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] (R)** — a Toss Up open seat, now a Sanders-lane progressive against a Trump-endorsed second-chance nominee. ## Snapshot The cycle's most consequential Democratic primary in a Toss Up state. Open seat after Gary Peters's 2025 retirement announcement. Democratic field fractured along generational and ideological lines: **Abdul El-Sayed 24, Mallory McMorrow 24, Haley Stevens 13** (Emerson, April 2026) with 36% undecided. Republican nominee is **Mike Rogers**, who lost to [[Elissa Slotkin]] in 2024 by 0.34 points — closest Senate race of that cycle. Rogers enters 2026 with money and name recognition, a rare second-chance R nominee. The D primary is the proxy fight for the post-2024 Democratic coalition: Sanders-lane populist (El-Sayed) vs. progressive suburban woman (McMorrow) vs. institutional moderate (Stevens). Whoever wins faces Rogers in a Michigan general that Harris lost by 1.4 points in 2024. ## Incumbent (retiring) - **[[Gary Peters]]** (D) — senator since 2015; DSCC chair 2021–2023 (credited with holding the Senate majority 2022). Former U.S. Rep (MI-09/MI-14, 2009–2015) and MI Lottery Commissioner. Announced retirement January 2025; cited desire to "pass the torch." Has not endorsed in the primary. ## Democratic primary (August 4, 2026) **RESULT: El-Sayed 48.6% — Stevens 47.4% — McMorrow ~4%** (McMorrow dropped out July 5, after the section below was written, but stayed on the ballot). Field as of spring 2026: - **Abdul El-Sayed** — former Wayne County public health director; 2018 gubernatorial candidate (lost primary to Whitmer). Progressive / Sanders-aligned. Q1 2026: **$2.3M raised, $2.5M COH**. **Leading among under-40 voters 35–18** over McMorrow. - **Mallory McMorrow** — Michigan state senator (4th district, suburban Oakland County). Rose to national profile with 2022 "You are not going to out-hate me" speech responding to GOP groomer accusations. Progressive brand but suburban-electable. Q1 2026: **$3.0M raised, $3.7M COH** — top fundraiser. - **Haley Stevens** — U.S. Rep (MI-11) since 2019; Auto Rescue Task Force alumnus. Moderate/establishment lane. Q1 2026: $2.0M raised, $3.39M COH. **Slipping in polling** from earlier establishment-favorite status. - **Rachel Howard** — minor - **Travis Zollner** — minor **Emerson / WOOD-TV (April 11–13, 2026)**: El-Sayed 24%, McMorrow 24%, Stevens 13%, 36% undecided. El-Sayed +8 pts vs. January poll — trend-line mover. ## Republican primary (August 4, 2026) - **Mike Rogers** — former U.S. Rep (MI-08, 2001–2015); former [[House Intelligence Committee]] chair. 2024 Senate nominee — lost to Slotkin by 19,000 votes (0.34 pts). Q1 2026: **$2.24M raised, $4.2M COH** — well-positioned. No serious primary challenger filed. ## Ratings history - 2026-04 — Cook: Toss Up (current) - No major movement; holds as the cycle's purest swing-state Senate race ## Key dates - 2026-04-21 — Michigan filing deadline (already passed) - 2026-08-04 — Michigan primaries - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Rogers leads the field in cash on hand ($4.2M) — a single-candidate advantage that will extend through the D primary - McMorrow leads among Democrats ($3.7M COH) with Stevens close behind - El-Sayed's $2.5M is competitive given his earned-media strength - DSCC / NRSC both treating this as a top-tier target - Expect $50M+ in external spending by November — competitive even with PA, GA ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-11 — $5,547,780.97 across 18 lines, and a Detroit-registered committee buys both sides of the race Michigan took **$5,547,780.97** across **18 Schedule E lines** from **six committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-11** — **$3,805,180.37 (68.59%) oppose** and **$1,742,600.60 (31.41%) support**. Every line carries expenditure date **2026-10-09** and election code `G2026`. No notice clears the Deals **§7.4a** $10M floor, so this is a roll-up and not a Deal. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Lines | |---|---|---|---|---| | **TFM** | **2019650** | **$4,301,550.00** | $3,202,520.00 oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] · $1,099,030.00 support [[Mike Rogers]] | 7 | | [[AB PAC]] | 2019420 | $475,446.17 | support | 1 | | The Sentinel Action Fund | 2019616 | $573,159.25 | $418,829.62 oppose · $154,329.63 support | 4 | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019653 | $174,300.00 | $172,300.00 oppose · $2,000.00 support | 2 | | For Our Future | 2019561 | $11,794.80 | support | 3 | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] | 2019493 | $11,530.75 | oppose | 1 | 🔴 **TFM is 77.5% of the day's Michigan money and it is new to this vault.** FEC **C00960138**, address of record **11406 Littlefield St, Detroit, MI 48227**, treasurer named on the Form 24 header as **Whitsett, Karen**. Its 48-hour notice — file **2019650**, expenditure date 2026-10-09 — buys **both sides of the same race**: **$3,202,520.00 against [[Abdul El-Sayed]]** across three lines and **$1,099,030.00 supporting [[Mike Rogers]]** across four. That is a Republican-direction buy on both halves, placed from a Detroit residential-style address by a committee with a three-letter name the filing never expands. Its vendor stack is also new here: **EMG Media Group, Inc.** $3,233,150.00, **River Road Digital LLC** $1,000,000.00, JLB Strategies LLC $48,400.00, Genesis Advertising LLC $20,000.00. > [!warning] The treasurer's identity is NOT resolved > The header reads **"Whitsett, Karen"**. **This page does not > attempt to identify the person** — a filing gives a legal name > and a name match is not an identification. No inference about any officeholder of a similar name is > made or implied here. > [!warning] This is a PARTIAL-DAY FIRST READ > Receipt date **2026-10-11** was still open when these figures were read — the newest > filing on the date was received **21:23:24 ET**. These figures are a > first read of a partial day and may rise as late filings post. ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $3,689,702.51 from thirteen committees, the broadest field of the day Michigan took **$3,689,702.51** across **42 Schedule E lines** from **thirteen committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09** — **$2,626,041.18 (71.17%) negative**, **$1,063,661.33 (28.83%) positive**. That is the most committees in any single race on this date and the **highest positive share of any Senate race** on it. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$1,012,416.78** | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2018837 | $846,080.23 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | | Lower Costs Now | 2019076 | $551,300.00 | oppose [[Mike Rogers]] $394,071.42 · **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] $157,228.58 | | Fighting for Michigan PAC | 2018670 | $500,000.00 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] $250,000.00 · oppose [[Mike Rogers]] $250,000.00 | | Relentless PAC | 2019098 | $469,253.00 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | | Good Growth | 2018888 | $102,761.75 | **support** [[Haley Stevens]] | | United Democracy Project (UDP) | 2018953 | $94,620.36 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | | The Sentinel Action Fund | 2019113 | $49,920.00 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] $24,960.00 · **support** [[Mike Rogers]] $24,960.00 | | Community Change Voters | 2019119 | $27,034.40 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | | MoveOn.org Political Action | 2018774 | $12,183.02 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]], oppose [[Haley Stevens]] | | Red Senate | 2018619 | $10,337.64 | **support** [[Mike Rogers]] | | Neighbor Voices PAC | 2019039 | $6,995.33 | split, both sides | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019121 | $6,800.00 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | **Derived total: $3,689,702.51.** Positions by candidate: **$1,978,077.37 against [[Abdul El-Sayed]]** — across two name spellings the FEC codes separately, $1,883,457.01 plus $94,620.36 — **$925,601.94 supporting him**, **$647,102.42 against [[Mike Rogers]]**, **$35,297.64 supporting [[Mike Rogers]]**, and **$102,761.75 supporting [[Haley Stevens]]** against **$861.39 opposing her**. The six figures sum to $3,689,702.51. **Three committees split their buys to the cent or near it** — Fighting for Michigan PAC exactly $250,000.00 / $250,000.00, The Sentinel Action Fund exactly $24,960.00 / $24,960.00 — which is the invoice artefact pattern the vault records rather than two separate decisions. **[[Haley Stevens]] is still being spent on, on both sides**, after the primary, which is worth noting against the assumption that the Democratic field has consolidated. These rows are not summed into a race total. This is a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while that day's filings were still arriving, so the figure may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018837.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019076.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018670.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019098.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018888.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018953.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019113.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019119.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018774.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018619.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019039.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019121.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — $14,981,054.40 across 41 lines, the densest race in the tranche Michigan took **$14,981,054.40** across **41 Schedule E lines** from **thirteen committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-08** — more lines than any other race, and **$9,898,650.78 (66.08%) negative** against **$5,082,403.62** positive. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[WinSenate]]** | **2018482** | **$3,677,385.52** | oppose [[Mike Rogers]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | **$3,252,626.64** | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[MHB Media Inc]] | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$2,392,140.60** | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[Del Ray Media LLC]] | | **[[WinSenate]]** | **2018482** | **$2,120,026.00** | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | AL Media LLC | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$1,594,760.40** | **support** [[Mike Rogers]] | [[Del Ray Media LLC]] | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | $418,272.12 | **support** [[Mike Rogers]] | Storytellers Group LLC | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | $418,272.11 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Storytellers Group LLC | | Somos PAC | 2018458 | $250,000.00 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | BlackPAC | 2018470 | $233,400.00 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Technicolor Political | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $184,166.67 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | OTG Strategies | | End Citizens United | 2018586 | $100,000.00 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | End Citizens United | 2018586 | $100,000.00 | oppose [[Mike Rogers]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | Driving Force Action | 2018107 | $64,384.00 | support [[Mike Rogers]] | Optimates LLC | | Progressive Turnout Project | 2018317 | $48,755.07 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Merrimack Services LLC | | Building Michigan PAC | 2018226 | $31,110.94 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Majority Strategies LLC | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $31,008.34 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | The Pivot Group, Inc. | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $17,070.35 | **support** [[Mike Rogers]] | Connection Strategy LLC | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $17,070.35 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Connection Strategy LLC | | Right to Life of Michigan Victory Fund | 2018114 | *$17,608.29* | mixed | WAM Print Mail Inc / USPS | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | $3,750.00 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Activate HQ | | End Citizens United | 2018586 | $1,373.50 | oppose [[Mike Rogers]] | Dixon Davis Media Group | | End Citizens United | 2018586 | $1,373.50 | support [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Dixon Davis Media Group | ⚠️ **The Right to Life of Michigan Victory Fund $17,608.29 is NOT new money.** It arrives on a periodic report (file 2018114) whose expenditure dates predate the tranche window — the **Rule 4h** restatement test. It is listed for completeness and excluded from the new-money reading. Across all states that document carries **$46,644.77** of such rows. 🔴 **Three different committees mirrored their Michigan buys to the cent on this date.** [[No Going Back PAC]] split $418,272.12 / $418,272.11 through Storytellers Group; [[America PAC]] split $17,070.35 each way through Connection Strategy LLC; End Citizens United split $1,373.50 each way through Dixon Davis Media Group. **[[WinSenate]] did not** — it bought $3,677,385.52 against [[Mike Rogers]] through [[Waterfront Strategies]] and $2,120,026.00 for [[Abdul El-Sayed]] through AL Media LLC, two vendors and two unequal amounts. See [[WinSenate 19.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]] and [[No Going Back PAC 23.3M Multi-Race IE October 2026]]. The aggregate columns are not a Michigan race total. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-08. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018482.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018550.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018548.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018458.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018470.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018586.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018107.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018226.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018114.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $4,643,792.68, Michigan is [[AFP Action]]'s largest position | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$2,575,259.00** | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AB PAC]]** | **2018051** | **$1,131,551.03** | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] / Target Platform | | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$936,982.65** | support [[Mike Rogers]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | [[High Plains PAC]] | 2017843 | *$257,500.00 / $257,500.00* | support [[Mike Rogers]] / oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | [[Advocacy Architects]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2017989 | $8,551.17 / $8,551.16 | MI House, oppose / support, split to the cent | [[In Pursuit Of]] | **Derived total, new money: $4,660,895.01.** Anti-El-Sayed $2,575,259.00 · pro-El-Sayed $1,131,551.03 · pro-Rogers $936,982.65 · House $17,102.33. ⚠️ **The [[High Plains PAC]] $515,000 is NOT new money** — it arrives on that committee's Q3 report (file 2017843) and identically restates Form 24 **2014017**, logged 2026-09-19. Both unflagged originals; see FEC Back-Sweep Standard **Rule 4h**. Excluded from the total. **$2,575,259.00 is the single largest candidate position on [[AFP Action]]'s $16,178,234.22 notice** — making Michigan the Koch network's top target of the day. See [[AFP Action 16.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]] and [[AB PAC 22.8M Billboard IE October 2026]]. ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — $845,895.32 across 16 lines, both directions | Direction | Candidate | Lines | Amount | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Mike Rogers]] | 1 | **$270,166.40** | | oppose | [[Mike Rogers]] (reported under a second name form) | 1 | **$147,073.37** | | oppose | [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | 3 | **$238,712.00** — [[American Political Action Committee]], file 2017199 | | support | [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | 13 | **$172,443.55** | | oppose | Christina Hines, MI-H | 1 | $297,102.40 | **Derived Senate-race total $828,395.32**, plus **$17,500.00** against El-Sayed on SLF PAC file 2017202 for **$845,895.32**. Note: the filings use the legal name forms `ROGERS, MICHAEL` and `Rogers, Mike` for the same candidate, linked here to the existing vault page [[Mike Rogers]]. Committees not read at file level here carry the pro-El-Sayed and anti-Rogers lines. SLF PAC's anti-El-Sayed aggregate of **$27,421,795.65** is **not** published as a Michigan total. First read of receipt date 2026-10-05. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017199.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017202.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-04 — $301,171.76, both directions from one committee | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[Sentinel Action Fund]] | **$288,260.61** | $144,130.31 support [[Mike Rogers]] / $144,130.30 oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | RedZone Strategic LLC | 2 | 2016853 | | SLF PAC | $12,911.15 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Creative Direct; FCG Media Strategies LLC | 1 | 2016717 | Expenditure date **2026-10-02**. The Sentinel Action Fund pair is split to the cent — $144,130.31 and $144,130.30 — which is the signature of one buy allocated across both sides of a race, the same balanced structure recorded on [[AFP Action]]. The aggregates are not race totals. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016853.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016717.fec` **Receipt date 2026-09-30 — $5,411,199.93 across 25 lines and 6 committees, of which $5,355,003.41 — 99.0% — opposes [[Abdul El-Sayed]].** All figures from raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | File | |---|---|---|---|---| | [[No Going Back PAC]] | $3,986,901.00 | oppose El-Sayed | Del Ray Media LLC (TV and connected) | 2015798 | | Americans for Prosperity Action | $672,314.18 | oppose El-Sayed, 9 lines | US Postal Service (mailer postage) | 2015760 | | American Principles Project PAC | $350,000.00 | oppose El-Sayed | Logan Circle Group LLC | 2015745 | | SLF PAC | $302,789.00 | oppose El-Sayed | Storytellers Group LLC | 2015783 | | [[America PAC]] | $87,148.50 | oppose El-Sayed | — | 2015792 | | Red Senate | $12,047.25 | support [[Mike Rogers]] | — | 2015729 | El-Sayed was **the single largest target of the entire 2026-09-30 tranche outside Texas**, and [[No Going Back PAC]]'s $3,986,901.00 line was that committee's largest line in a 66-line, 20-state filing. **Four separate committees spent against El-Sayed on one day and only $56,196.52 was spent supporting the Republican.** The channels are deliberately different — network and connected television, direct-mail postage, and two political consultancies — which is the signature of a program that is coordinated in effect and uncoordinated on paper. Nothing in the filings establishes coordination, and nothing needs to: the structure is what independent-expenditure law produces. Per Rule 6, a daily figure is a first read of that receipt date. Re-derive before quoting. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015798.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015760.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015783.fec` **Receipt date 2026-10-02 — $1,013,911.77 opposing [[Abdul El-Sayed]], from SLF PAC.** Two Schedule E lines on Form 24 file **2016506**, expenditure date 2026-09-30, election code G2026 — see [[SLF 22.5M Senate IE October 2026]]. Race-level tranche totals for the receipt date were **$1,288,352.27 opposing** and **$18,000.00 supporting** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] across 8 lines; the residual above the SLF notice sits in smaller notices not individually reviewed here. ### Outside-money log — September 2026 back-fill Recorded here on 2026-10-03 to close a gap this race file carried for five consecutive sweeps: four Deal pages linked **to** MI-Sen-2026 while the race file said nothing about them. | Receipt date | Committee | Amount | Direction | Lines | File | Deal page | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | 2026-10-01 | WinSenate | **$3,755,256.51** | oppose [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] | 3 | 2016120 | [[WinSenate 23.7M Senate Map IE October 2026]] | | 2026-10-01 | WinSenate | $2,014,557.00 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | 1 | 2016120 | [[WinSenate 23.7M Senate Map IE October 2026]] | | 2026-09-24 | WinSenate | $2,552,275.06 | oppose [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] | 4 | 2015058 | [[WinSenate 21.2M Senate Map IE September 2026]] | | 2026-09-24 | WinSenate | $362,376.00 | **support** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | 3 | 2015058 | [[WinSenate 21.2M Senate Map IE September 2026]] | | 2026-09-25 | SLF PAC | $1,008,415.09 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | 2 | 2015242 | [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]] | | 2026-09-25 | [[No Going Back PAC]] | $3,763,601.00 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | — | 2015230 | [[No Going Back PAC 28.5M Multi-Race IE September 2026]] | **Michigan is the only race on the map where both sides are buying at seven figures through named committees.** The two directions, over eleven days and six notices: | Side | Amount | Composition | |---|---|---| | Against [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | **$5,785,927.86** | [[No Going Back PAC]] $3,763,601.00 + SLF PAC $1,008,415.09 (Sept) + SLF PAC $1,013,911.77 (Oct) | | Against [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] | **$6,307,531.57** | WinSenate, both notices | | **Supporting** [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | **$2,376,933.00** | WinSenate, both notices | WinSenate is the **only** committee in this file's record to have filed *support* lines for either candidate; every other line on both sides is negative. Counting support and opposition together, the pro-El-Sayed side of the ledger is **$8,684,464.57** against **$5,785,927.86** pointed at him — Michigan is the one race in this vault's record where the Democratic-aligned outside money currently exceeds the Republican-aligned outside money. No aggregate on any of these rows is a Michigan race total; the per-notice figures above are each derived from their own document and are recorded on the linked Deal pages with file numbers. Each is a first read of its receipt date. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016120.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015058.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015242.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2015230.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-03 — $2,769,015.65 across 17 lines | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[AFP Action]] | **$1,296,308.75** | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 5 | 2016600 | | [[AFP Action]] | **$1,140,933.90** | **support** [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 10 | 2016600 | | SLF PAC | $302,789.00 | oppose [[Abdul El-Sayed]] | Storytellers Group LLC | 1 | 2016566 | | [[WinSenate]] | $28,984.00 | oppose [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] | Dixon/Davis Media Group LLC | 1 | 2016676 | **Totals: $1,599,097.75 against [[Abdul El-Sayed]]; $1,140,933.90 for [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]]; $28,984.00 against Rogers; $0.00 for El-Sayed.** Michigan is the largest single-race position on [[AFP Action]]'s $10,490,289.14 notice — $2,437,242.65 of it, 23.2%, more than the committee put into any other race — and it is also the only race in which that committee's *support* side exceeds a million dollars. See [[AFP Action 10.5M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. **This is a mail program, not an ad buy.** 90.3% of the AFP Action notice goes to In Pursuit Of, LLC, with the United States Postal Service as its second-largest payee. The $2.44M recorded above will not appear in broadcast-tracking data, which is the source of nearly all press reporting on Michigan outside spending. The aggregate column ($27,391,384.50 on the SLF row, $11,673,552.58 on the AFP Action rows) is **not** a Michigan race total. These are **first reads** of receipt date 2026-10-03. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016600.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016566.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016676.fec` ## Intel notes - **Generational split is the headline**: El-Sayed's 35–18 lead among under-40s over McMorrow matches the Mamdani/young-voter pattern surfacing nationally. Democrats under-40 are moving toward populist/outsider candidates in primaries; older voters stay with institutional lane. Stevens is getting squeezed by both ends. - **Rogers as second-chance nominee**: a second Senate run one cycle after a 0.34-point loss is rare. Rogers benefits from name recognition, established donor network, and the strongest pre-primary position any MI Republican has held in a decade. - **The "Slotkin + 1 pt" model**: Slotkin won by 0.34 pts while Harris lost the state by 1.4. Democratic Senate performance in Michigan runs ~2 pts ahead of presidential performance. That makes this race a true coin-flip in a slightly-R-leaning environment. - **Gaza/Middle East messaging**: El-Sayed is the only major Democrat to have built a Gaza-forward framework. Dearborn and Arab-American MI voters abandoned Harris in 2024; whether they return for El-Sayed specifically is a primary-narrowing question and a general-election variable. ## Related KB entities - [[Gary Peters]] — retiring incumbent - [[Abdul El-Sayed]] — **Democratic nominee** (won Aug 4 primary, 48.6%) - [[Mallory McMorrow]] — dropped out July 5; endorsed El-Sayed - [[Haley Stevens]] — lost primary 47.4% - [[Mike Rogers (Michigan)]] — R nominee - TBD: Michigan Arab-American political realignment (Concepts/) - TBD: 2024 Slotkin-Rogers race (Timelines/) ## Content leads - **Blog**: "The Michigan Democratic Primary as a Referendum on the 2024 Coalition" — El-Sayed vs. McMorrow vs. Stevens as a stand-in for three competing post-Harris Democratic futures - **Data**: generational-split polling tracker across Senate Democratic primaries 2026 (MI, MN, others) - **[[YouTube]]**: explainer on why Rogers is the most-prepared GOP Senate challenger of the cycle - **Breaking**: August 4 primary night is tied with June 2 for the most consequential night of the cycle ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — Michigan Senate 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan,_2026) - [Wikipedia — 2026 Senate election in Michigan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan) - [Emerson — El-Sayed / McMorrow tied](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-tied-for-lead-in-democratic-senate-primary/) - [Michigan Advance — Rogers / Stevens fundraising lead](https://michiganadvance.com/2026/02/03/rogers-stevens-lead-fundraising-in-crowded-michigan-u-s-senate-race-enter-year-flush-with-cash/) - [CNN — Michigan primary dynamics](https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/19/politics/michigan-senate-democratic-primary) - [NBC News — El-Sayed wins Michigan Democratic Senate primary (Aug 5, 2026)](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/abdul-el-sayed-wins-michigans-democratic-senate-primary-notching-midwe-rcna589750) - [Michigan Advance — primary too close to call overnight (Aug 5, 2026)](https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/05/michigans-democratic-u-s-senate-primary-too-close-to-call/) - [Detroit News — live primary results (Aug 4, 2026)](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/04/michigan-senate-election-results/91144752007/)