# Maine U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot Susan Collins is the only Republican senator running in a state [[Kamala Harris]] won in 2024, making ME-Sen the crown jewel of Democratic pickup targets. Collins has announced a sixth-term bid. The Democratic nomination went through a collapse and a replacement convention: [[Graham Platner]] won the June primary decisively, withdrew in July, and **[[Troy Jackson]] is the Democratic nominee**. Cook rates the race a **Toss Up** (Sept 23, 2026), down from Lean D in April. **Four debates are set; the first two are done** — Oct 6 (WGME) and Oct 8 (WMTW) were held (Spectrum Local News and the Inquirer, Oct 9, describe two Maine debates in the same week). Still ahead: Oct 13 (WABI / WAGM) and Oct 15 (News Center Maine, Portland Press Herald and Maine Public) — Jackson accepted Sept 4, about a week after Collins agreed to four. ## Incumbent - **[[Susan Collins]]** (R) — senator since 2003, announced re-election February 2026. Traditional moderate brand under increasing strain as the Senate GOP coalition becomes more homogenously Trumpist. Collins' committee positions and long-form relationships remain her core asset. ## Challengers ### Democratic nomination — the primary, the withdrawal, the convention The Democratic line changed hands twice between June and July 2026. - **June 9, 2026 — [[Graham Platner]] wins the primary** with more than 70% of the vote, beating Governor [[Janet Mills]] (DSCC-backed) and [[David Costello]]. The oyster farmer's economic-populist campaign, backed by [[Bernie Sanders]], badly outran the establishment pick. - **Early July 2026 — an accusation of sexual assault against Platner** ends his support inside the party within days. - **July 10, 2026 — Platner formally withdraws**, submitting notice to leave the race. - **July 25, 2026 — a replacement convention** in Bangor, called on two days' margin before a July 27 ballot deadline, seats 601 delegates from Maine's 16 counties (101 Democratic State Committee members, 500 county-appointed). **[[Troy Jackson]] wins the nomination with 566 votes**; his only remaining challenger, biopharmaceutical executive Saundra Pelletier, takes 5. ### The nominee - **[[Troy Jackson]]** (D) — former Allagash logger, Maine Senate president 2018–2024. Began in the state House as an independent in 2002 before joining the Democratic Party; a former Republican. Runs to the left on policy — Medicare for All, abolishing [[ICE]], and an anti-oligarchy economic message. Jackson's biography is unusually well-matched to the moment. A logger from a town on the Canadian border is not making an abstract argument when he talks about the trade war — the [[USMCA]] rupture and the counter-tariffs landing **8 September** are local economics in Aroostook County, not a Washington story. ### Republican - **[[Susan Collins]]** — the nominee; no serious intra-party challenge materialized. ## Ratings history - **2026-09-23 — Cook: Toss Up** (Cook print ratings, Sept 23) - 2026-04-13 — Cook: Lean D - Earlier: Toss Up / Lean D (fluctuated through 2025) > [!info] Rating re-checked 2026-09-28 > The April Lean D rating predated the primary, the Platner withdrawal and the Jackson substitution. Cook's Sept 23 ratings have it at Toss Up. ## Key dates - 2026-06-09 — Maine primary (Platner wins) - 2026-07-10 — Platner withdraws - 2026-07-25 — replacement convention nominates Jackson - 2026-09-08 — Canadian counter-tariffs take effect; direct economic exposure in northern Maine - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Collins fundraising: strong, detailed Q1 FEC pull needed (see fec-tracker skill build-out) - DSCC reportedly committing heavy resources; expected record independent expenditures from both sides - TBD: SuperPAC landscape — track MainePAC, Collins Committee, Senate Majority PAC, SLF ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $5,848,611.30, and 99.07% of it is negative Maine took **$5,848,611.30** across **26 Schedule E lines** from **eight committees** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09** — **$5,794,367.67 (99.07%) negative** against **$54,243.63 (0.93%) positive**. **$5,439,767.63 is aimed at [[Troy Jackson]]**; **$354,600.04 is aimed at [[Susan Collins]]**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$3,969,173.29** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | | **[[The Maine Standard]]** | **2019101** | **$1,327,669.96** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | | [[LCV Victory Fund]] | 2019065 | $331,127.99 | oppose [[Susan Collins]] | | Lead Maine Committee, Inc. | 2019111 | $100,000.00 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | | Stronger Maine | 2018686 | $75,000.00 | **support** [[Susan Collins]] $37,500.00 · oppose [[Troy Jackson]] $37,500.00 | | Maine People | 2018730 | $24,020.48 | split, both sides | | [[America PAC]] | 2019090 | $10,848.77 | **support** [[Susan Collins]] $5,424.39 · oppose [[Troy Jackson]] $5,424.38 | | [[WinSenate]] | 2019121 | $10,402.81 | oppose [[Susan Collins]] | | Neighbor Voices PAC | 2019039 | $368.00 | split, both sides | **Derived total: $5,848,611.30.** 🔴 **SLF PAC and [[The Maine Standard]] hit [[Troy Jackson]] on the same expenditure date through the same buyer again.** [[MHB Media Inc]] took **$3,160,524.00** from SLF PAC and **$1,320,984.96** from [[The Maine Standard]] on this receipt date — **$4,481,508.96 of anti-Jackson advertising placed by one firm for two committees in one day.** [[The Maine Standard]]'s treasurer, [[Trevor Kowalski]], also signs [[Cornhusker Majority]] and — newly on this date — [[75 PAC]]. See [[75 PAC]]. **Stronger Maine's first Form 24 appears here**, resolving a carried watch item: it splits exactly $37,500.00 / $37,500.00 pro-Collins and anti-Jackson through Sway Political LLC, which is the split-to-the-cent invoice pattern the vault has recorded on other committees. These rows are not summed into a race total. This is a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while that day's filings were still arriving, so the figure may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019101.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019065.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019111.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018686.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018730.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019090.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019121.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019039.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — $6,223,213.45, 95.73% negative, from six committees Maine took **$6,223,213.45** across **18 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-08** — **$5,957,682.67 (95.73%) negative**. Both candidates are being attacked by the other side's outside money and almost nobody is buying positive. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[WinSenate]]** | **2018482** | **$3,789,787.15** | oppose [[Susan Collins]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | [[Defending Main Street Super PAC]] | 2018243 | **$946,500.00** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Strategic Media Placement Inc. | | **[[WinSenate]]** | **2018482** | **$873,449.43** | oppose [[Susan Collins]] | MVAR Media, LLC | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | $159,204.47 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Creative Direct | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | **$114,698.00** | **support** [[Susan Collins]] | Cavalry LLC | | [[Stronger Maine]] | 2018125 | $104,085.00 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Wildcatter Strategies | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $81,923.78 | support [[Troy Jackson]] | Echo Effect LLC | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $40,584.00 | **support** [[Susan Collins]] | Red Maverick Media LLC | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $40,584.00 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Red Maverick Media LLC | | [[The Maine Standard]] | 2018481 | $23,950.55 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | SLF PAC | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $23,325.00 | support [[Troy Jackson]] | The Pivot Group, Inc. | | CFFE PAC | 2018580 | $16,779.57 | oppose [[Susan Collins]] | Echo Effect LLC | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | $5,000.00 | **support** [[Susan Collins]] | SLMG LLC | | [[The Maine Standard]] | 2018481 | $3,342.50 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Dream America Media | **Derived totals:** against [[Susan Collins]] **$4,680,016.15**; against [[Troy Jackson]] **$1,277,666.52**; for [[Susan Collins]] **$160,282.00**; for [[Troy Jackson]] **$105,248.78**. Sum **$6,223,213.45**. 🔴 **SLF PAC's $119,698.00 for [[Susan Collins]] is the committee's first positive dollar recorded in these filings.** On file 2018550 the committee filed $463,195.00 of support against $5,542,105.69 of opposition across six states, ending a 100%-negative record. See [[OH-Sen-2026-Special]], where the rest of that support landed. ⚠️ **[[America PAC]] split $40,584.00 each way to the cent** — support [[Susan Collins]] and oppose [[Troy Jackson]], same vendor, same document. That is the single-invoice mirroring pattern, not two programs. ⚠️ **[[The Maine Standard]]'s payee field reads "SLF PAC."** The committee's own Schedule E names [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s PAC as the recipient of $23,950.55 of anti-Jackson spending. Whether that is a reporting artefact or a disclosed coordination-adjacent transfer is **not established** by the document and is recorded here as an open question. The aggregate columns are not summed into a Maine race total. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-08. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018482.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018243.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018550.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018125.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018580.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018497.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018481.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-06 — $1,917,549.49 against Jackson, one line carrying 93.7% of it | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | Lines | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[Pine Tree Results PAC]] | 2017394 | **$1,797,198.00** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | SRCP Media Inc. | **1** | | [[America PAC]] | 2017609 | **$77,944.10** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | part of a 114-line national notice | 2 | | [[America PAC]] | 2017609 | **$42,407.39** | support [[Susan Collins]] | part of the same notice | 3 | **Derived totals: $1,875,142.10 against [[Troy Jackson]], $42,407.39 for [[Susan Collins]].** Nothing was filed against Collins in this tranche. **[[Pine Tree Results PAC]]'s single line is the story.** $1,797,198.00 in one Schedule E row, expenditure dated 2026-10-06, placed entirely through **SRCP Media Inc.** — the committee's only vendor. It is within $148,000 of its 2026-09-29 line and brings its two read notices to a **derived $3,742,121.00 against Jackson**, all through one buyer. **The aggregate moved by exactly the line.** File 2017394 reads **$19,759,814.00** against file 2015526's **$17,962,616.00** — a difference of exactly $1,797,198.00. That still does not make the column usable as a Maine total: it establishes only that this filer increments live rather than back-stamping an end state, which is a property of the filer, not a quantity about the race. The $3,742,121.00 above is **derived by summing notices**. This is a first read of receipt date 2026-10-06, queried twice on 2026-10-07 with identical results. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017394.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017609.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — $104,200.63, and the Houston mailbox is identified Four committees spent against [[Troy Jackson]] on e-file receipt date **2026-10-05**; none spent for him, and none spent on [[Susan Collins]]'s side in this tranche. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | [[American Political Action Committee]] | 2017199 | **$42,900.00** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]], 3 lines | Red Spark Strategy / RRTV Media | | SLF PAC | 2017202 | **$35,000.00** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]], 2 lines | Dream America Media | | [[Lead Maine Committee]] | not read at file level | **$22,958.13** | — | — | | [[The Maine Standard]] | not read at file level | **$3,342.50** | — | — | **Derived total $104,200.63.** 🔴 **The Houston mailbox question is answered.** The [[Stronger Maine]] page asked "whether the Houston address belongs to a compliance firm and which other committees use it." On this receipt date **[[Eighteen Fifty-Four Fund]]** (C00809483) surfaced at **1305 W 11th St #213, Houston TX** — two suites from Stronger Maine's **#217** — with the **same treasurer, [[Les Williamson]]**, as the source of a **$1,000,000** contribution to a third Williamson committee, [[Who Stands For Us]]. See [[Eighteen Fifty-Four Fund 1M Who Stands For Us October 2026]]. The standing caution holds: a shared treasurer is a vendor relationship. What is new is that **a disclosed transaction now runs between two of his committees**, which is more than a shared letterhead. Per Rule 4c, SLF PAC's anti-Jackson aggregate of **$20,265,926.76** on file 2017202 is **not** published here as a Maine race total. First read of receipt date 2026-10-05 per Rule 6. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017199.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017202.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017177.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-04 — $323,934.04 across 6 lines, and a **third** Maine-branded committee Four committees filed Form 24 notices touching this race on 2026-10-04, all for expenditure date **2026-10-02**. Figures derived from the raw filings per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rules 2, 4a and 4d; the 2026-10-04 e-file receipt date was queried **twice** with identical results. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | SLF PAC | **$142,029.41** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Creative Direct; FCG Media Strategies LLC | 2 | 2016717 | | [[Stronger Maine]] | **$104,085.00** | $52,042.50 support [[Susan Collins]] / $52,042.50 oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Wildcatter Strategies | 2 | 2016711 | | [[Lead Maine Committee]] | **$51,064.60** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Mash Dynamo | 1 | 2016855 | | [[WinSenate]] | $26,755.03 | support [[Troy Jackson]] | MVAR Media, LLC | 1 | 2016842 | **Against Jackson: $245,136.51. For Collins: $52,042.50. For Jackson: $26,755.03.** > [!important] Three Maine-branded committees, three different back offices, none of them in Maine's control > This race now carries **three** committees following the [[State-Branded Super PAC Template]], and each > one's paperwork points somewhere else: > > | Committee | FEC ID | Registered address | Signer | Outside link | > |---|---|---|---|---| > | [[The Maine Standard]] | C00961342 | Bangor ME | [[Trevor Kowalski]] | also signs [[Cornhusker Majority]] in Nebraska | > | [[Lead Maine Committee]] | C00946921 | 700 Main Street Ste 3, Bangor ME | Nicholas Stoltzfus | also signed [[Sentinel Action Fund]]'s notice the same day, 6 minutes apart | > | [[Stronger Maine]] | C00922294 | 1305 W 11th St #217, **Houston, Texas** | Les Williamson | the only one that does not even claim a Maine address | > > Nothing in the filings establishes coordination, and a shared signer or address is a compliance-vendor > fact before it is anything else. What is on the record is that the only committees in this race wearing > Maine's name are administered from Bangor compliance offices and a Houston mailbox. The aggregate columns on these rows are **not** race or committee totals. These are a confirmed second read of the receipt date, not a closed count — late arrivals remain possible. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016717.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016711.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016855.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016842.fec` > [!note] Collins's own committee filed too > Collins for Senator filed **three amended Form 1s** on 2026-10-04 (files 2016710, 2016712, 2016713) > disclosing **10 joint-fundraising representatives**, one of which — Keep the Senate — is newly added. > [[John E. Sununu]] filed the same kind of amendment in [[NH-Sen-2026]] the same day. See > [[Collins and Sununu Joint Fundraising Disclosures October 2026]]. **Receipt date 2026-10-02 — $5,191,680.14 across 4 lines, all of it opposing [[Troy Jackson]], from two committees on one expenditure date.** Figures derived from the raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | SLF PAC | **$3,749,015.18** | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | Flexpoint Media, [[MHB Media Inc]] | 3 | 2016506 | | [[The Maine Standard]] | $1,442,664.96 | oppose [[Troy Jackson]] | MHB Media, Inc | 1 | 2016518 | > [!important] Two committees, one candidate, one day, one media buyer > [[The Maine Standard]] is a Maine-branded committee registered at a Bangor mall-boulevard suite address, > FEC **C00961342**, whose treasurer **[[Trevor Kowalski]]** also signs [[Cornhusker Majority]] in Nebraska — > which filed its own notice the same day. Both buy through the [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s vendors; MHB > Media, Inc took $3,119,925.60 on SLF's filing and the whole $1,442,664.96 on this one. Both SLF lines and > The Maine Standard's line carry expenditure date **2026-09-30**. Nothing in the filings establishes > coordination. See [[State-Branded Super PAC Template]]. Prior tranche, receipt date 2026-09-25: SLF PAC **$2,613,159.09** opposing [[Troy Jackson]] across 3 lines (file 2015242). See [[SLF 22.5M Senate IE October 2026]] and [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]]. The aggregate column on these rows ($19,950,617.04 on the SLF filing, $3,748,586.91 on the single-row Maine Standard filing) is **not** a race or committee total. These are first reads. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016506.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016518.fec` ## Intel notes - **The nominee substitution is the story now.** Jackson inherited a ballot line four months before the election without having run a primary campaign for it — no primary-built fundraising list, no earned-media cycle, and a party that spent June fighting itself. Whether Platner's populist coalition transfers to him is the race's central unknown. - Jackson is the rarer profile in a Collins race: a border-county labor Democrat rather than a coastal progressive or a Portland establishment figure. The trade war gives him a material argument Collins has to answer in-state. - Collins' vote history on Trump nominations and impeachments is the central Democratic line of attack. Her vote on Trump's 2025 Cabinet confirmations will be mined hard. - Abortion and Dobbs-era reproductive rights framing continues to structure the race. ## Related KB entities - [[MAGA]] — frame for Collins's complicated relationship with the Trump GOP - TBD: ideological ecosystem maps (populist-left, moderate-R) ## Content leads - **Blog**: Collins' voting-record evolution 2017 → 2025 (a quantified piece) - **Blog**: the replacement-convention mechanic — what happens when a party's nominee exits after the primary, and how little of the primary coalition transfers - **[[YouTube]]**: the logger-versus-the-tariffs angle; northern Maine as the place the trade war stops being abstract ## Sources - [Cook Political Report Senate Ratings](https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings) - [NPR — Hoping to unseat Collins, Maine Democrats battle it out](https://www.npr.org/2026/03/26/nx-s1-5757659/)