# Louisiana U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot **General election: [[Julia Letlow]] (R) vs. [[Jamie Davis]] (D). Cook: Solid R.** Trump's revenge on [[Bill Cassidy]] is complete: the senator who voted to convict Trump in 2021 finished third in the May 16 Republican primary, and Letlow — Trump-endorsed since January — won the **June 27 runoff with 56.9%** over state Treasurer [[John Fleming]]. On the Democratic side, **Jamie Davis**, a third-generation row-crop farmer from Tensas Parish, won his runoff with about 80% over New Orleans businessman Gary Crockett. Davis is the first Black candidate to advance to a Louisiana U.S. Senate general election since Reconstruction. An August poll (WWNO) showed a four-point gap with one voter in five undecided, but Cook rates the seat Solid R. Louisiana used closed party primaries for the first time in 2026, replacing the old jungle primary. **First round (May 16, 2026):** no majority — Letlow ~45%, Fleming ~28%, Cassidy ~24% on early returns. Cassidy was eliminated. ## Incumbent - **[[Bill Cassidy]]** (R) — senator since 2015, former U.S. House (LA-06, 2009–2015). Physician by training. Voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial (one of seven R senators); co-author of the bipartisan Electoral Count Reform Act; ACA co-negotiator. Established the "institutional Republican" archetype Trump has systematically purged this cycle. ## Challengers ### Republican primary (May 16) and runoff (June 27, 2026) — RESOLVED: Letlow - **[[Julia Letlow]] — NOMINEE (runoff 56.9%).** U.S. Rep. (LA-05) since 2021; widow of Rep.-elect Luke Letlow who died of COVID-19 before taking office. **Trump-endorsed** (January 2026). Represents the Delta / northeast Louisiana district. Viewed as the MAGA-coalition consensus pick. - **[[John Fleming]] — lost the June 27 runoff.** Former U.S. Rep. (LA-04, 2009–2017), former Trump administration official, current Louisiana state treasurer. Running on a right-flank Trumpism-first pitch. - **Mark Spencer** (R) — minor candidate Cassidy finished third on May 16 and did not make the runoff. ### Democratic primary and runoff (June 27, 2026) — RESOLVED: Davis - **[[Jamie Davis]] — NOMINEE (runoff ~80%).** Tensas Parish farmer; former Tensas Parish Police Jury member. Beat Gary Crockett. ## Polling (pre-primary, April 2026 — superseded) - February 2026 public poll — Fleming 34%, Letlow 25%, Cassidy 20%, 21% undecided - Cassidy campaign internal (Public Opinion Strategies) — Cassidy 35%, Letlow 24%, Fleming 21% - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — Letlow 27%, Cassidy 26%, Fleming 19%, 28% undecided Every poll shows a different leader. The race is genuinely fluid and undecideds will decide it. ## Ratings history - **2026-09-23 — Cook: Solid R** (Cook print ratings; listed as an open seat) - 2026-04 — Cook: Likely R ## Key dates - 2026-05-16 — Louisiana primary (party-primary format, first cycle under new law) - 2026-06-27 — runoffs: **Letlow 56.9% over Fleming (R); Davis ~80% over Crockett (D)** - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Enormous super-PAC environment: MAGA-aligned groups backing Letlow, [[Club for Growth]]–adjacent groups backing Fleming, institutional-R groups supporting Cassidy - Cassidy has personal fundraising strength from his 2020 cycle network and the [[Senate Finance Committee]] relationships - Watch independent expenditures through mid-May; IE filings 48 hours before primary are legally required and often the clearest signal ## Intel notes - **Cassidy's 2021 impeachment vote is the fulcrum**. Every anti-Cassidy ad will reference it. His response has been: lean into the physician-legislator brand, talk healthcare and opioids, refuse to apologize. - **Letlow vs. Fleming coordination question**: RESOLVED — both stayed in, MAGA vote still overwhelmed Cassidy. Letlow dominated; the split didn't save Cassidy. - **Turnout structure**: new party-primary system means D and R voters vote in separate primaries. R turnout will be elevated by the contested race; D turnout will be low. - Trump's endorsement of Letlow (over Fleming) is itself a story — Letlow is a more conventional politician than Fleming; the endorsement indicates Trump World prefers an elected House member to a former Cabinet official for Senate seats. ## Related KB entities - [[MAGA]] — the primary is the cleanest test case for MAGA vs. institutional-R sorting this cycle - TBD: Louisiana Republican Party ecosystem map - TBD: 2021 Trump impeachment voters (7 senators — Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, Burr, Toomey, Cassidy) — an important cohort to track through their various 2026 fates ## Content leads - **Blog**: Cassidy as the last test case of the 2021 impeachment cohort - **[[YouTube]]**: deep dive on the new Louisiana primary system and why 2026 is its debut cycle - **Breaking**: primary night May 16 — high-news-value if Cassidy places third - **Merch**: "Cassidy survived" or MAGA-nominee merch — hedge production ## Outside spending ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — [[High Plains PAC]] $365,000.00 for [[Julia Letlow]] | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[High Plains PAC]]** | **2017699** | **$365,000.00** | support [[Julia Letlow]] | [[Advocacy Architects]] | 🔴 **Louisiana is not a competitive Senate race, which is what makes this interesting.** A Wyoming-branded super PAC funded **90.8% by one Wyoming 501(c)(4)** ([[Senate Opportunity Fund]]) spent $1.31M on 2026-10-05 across four Senate races — Montana, Louisiana, Alabama, Oklahoma — **100% support, sole payee [[Advocacy Architects]], every line a round number.** Three of the four are safe seats. Round-number lines to a single unidentified LLC in uncontested races describe an **allocation**, not a persuasion campaign, and Form 24 does not say what it bought. See [[Senate Opportunity Fund 1.97M to High Plains PAC]]. ## Sources - [Wikipedia — 2026 U.S. Senate election in Louisiana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana) - [Ballotpedia — U.S. Senate election in Louisiana, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2026) - [The 19th — Trump backs Rep. Julia Letlow to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy](https://19thnews.org/2026/01/louisiana-senate-2026-cassidy-letlow/) - [Punchbowl News — Louisiana Senate GOP primary gets loopy](https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/la-senate-primary/)