# Kansas Senate Outside Money 2026 Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since **1932**. No major forecaster has rated the 2026 race for [[Roger Marshall]]'s seat as a toss-up for most of the cycle. And yet, between **5 October and 24 October 2026**, at least **seventeen outside groups** disclosed at least **$36,619,332.39** of independent expenditure in it. This page assembles that money in one place. Every figure comes from a filing, and every filing is named. The companion race page is [[KS-Sen-2026]], which carries the politics, the polling and the endorsements; this page carries the money. > [!note] What this figure is, and what it is not > **$36,619,332.39** is the sum of the independent-expenditure notices recorded on [[KS-Sen-2026]] for > this race between 5 and 24 October 2026. It is a **floor, not a total**. Several of the daily figures > were read on the day they were filed, while more filings for that day were still arriving, so each can > only be too low. It also counts only *independent expenditure* — money spent for or against a > candidate by groups acting on their own. It excludes the candidates' own campaign spending, party > committee transfers, and the contributions these groups received. ## The day it broke open — 24 October 2026 On **24 October**, ten days before the election, **ten separate committees** put **$8,281,068.63** into this one race. That is more than twice the previous single-day record in this log, and it is the single largest day of outside spending the race has seen. | Committee | Filing | Direction | Amount | Who placed it | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[Lower Costs Now]]** | 2041422 | oppose [[Roger Marshall]] | **$3,071,933.00** | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | **[[People Over Politics Action Fund]]** | 2041238 | oppose [[Roger Marshall]] | **$1,477,225.00** | Screen Strategies Media | | **[[Lower Costs Now]]** | 2041422 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | **$1,183,934.00** | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | **[[Government That Works PAC]]** | 2041438 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | **$948,193.45** | Debra Schommer Media Group · Workers Productions | | **SLF PAC** | 2041460 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | **$500,000.00** | Right Target Media | | **[[AFP Action]]** | 2041323 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | $317,000.00 | [[In Pursuit Of]] · People Who Think | | [[Government That Works PAC]] | 2041461 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | $281,250.00 | Debra Schommer Media Group · Workers Productions | | [[United Futures PAC]] | 2041259 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | $189,809.02 | Financial Innovations · Neri Group | | [[Government That Works PAC]] | 2041461 | oppose [[Roger Marshall]] | $113,103.45 | Debra Schommer Media Group · Workers Productions | | Fund for a Working Congress | 2041372 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | $48,980.80 | On The Ballot · South Creek Group | | Somos PAC | 2041285 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | $39,227.65 | L2 Strategies | | **[[Our Heritage Matters]]** | 2041486 | oppose [[Roger Marshall]] | $38,772.25 | [[Chase Grove LLC]] | | **[[Our Heritage Matters]]** | 2041486 | **support a third candidate** | $37,813.29 | [[Chase Grove LLC]] | | [[Government That Works PAC]] | 2041438 | oppose [[Roger Marshall]] | $32,926.72 | Debra Schommer Media Group · Workers Productions | | D.R.I.V.E. (Teamsters' PAC) | 2041425 | **support** [[Roger Marshall]] | $900.00 | Meta Platforms | **Derived total: $8,281,068.63 across 30 Schedule E lines.** By direction: | Direction | Amount | Share | |---|---|---| | Against [[Roger Marshall]] | **$4,733,960.42** | 57.2% | | For [[Adam Hamilton]] | **$2,642,414.12** | 31.9% | | Against [[Adam Hamilton]] | $865,980.80 | 10.5% | | For a third candidate | $37,813.29 | 0.5% | | For [[Roger Marshall]] | $900.00 | 0.01% | **Two things about that table are new.** The first is that **money spent promoting the Democratic challenger is now the second-largest category in the race** — $2.64 million on one day, from four committees, where the first three weeks of October produced almost none. Up to 12 October this log recorded days on which *not one dollar supported anybody*. The second is the ratio: **89.1% of the day's money works for the challenger**, and the sitting Republican senator's own side spent **$866,880.80** defending him, barely a tenth of it. ## 🔴 Four of the ten committees on 24 October are connected, and they are 88% of the day The ten committees that spent in Kansas on 24 October are ten separate FEC filers. Four of them are linked to each other on the public record — by a shared treasurer, a shared post-office box, and a disclosed funding relationship — and between them they account for **$7,298,374.64, or 88.13%, of the day's $8,281,068.63**. | Committee | 24 October in Kansas | The link, as filed | |---|---|---| | **[[Lower Costs Now]]** | $4,255,867.00 | files from **PO Box 15845, Washington DC 20003** | | **[[People Over Politics Action Fund]]** | $1,477,225.00 | **93.69% funded by [[United Futures PAC]]** on its own Q3 report | | **[[Government That Works PAC]]** | $1,375,473.62 | treasurer **Christopher Koob** | | **[[United Futures PAC]]** | $189,809.02 | files from **PO Box 15845**; treasurer **Christopher Koob** | Christopher Koob signs at least eight federal committees recorded on this site, and [[PO Box 15845 DC Three Committee Cluster October 2026]] traces the box. One of the four, [[People Over Politics Action Fund]], is not a Koob committee and does not file from the box — it is there because **93.69% of its money came from [[United Futures PAC]]**, which is both. 🔴 **What this is and is not.** It is not evidence of coordination, and nothing here asserts any. Each of these committees may lawfully spend independently, and a compliance firm's clients routinely share an address and a treasurer without sharing a strategy. What it is, is a measurement of **how concentrated the money actually is** once you follow the filings instead of counting committee names. A reader told that "ten different groups" spent in Kansas on one day has been told something true and misleading at the same time. Four filers, one box, one treasurer, one funding chain, 88% of the money. ## The whole arc, day by day | Disclosed | Total | Committees | Filings recorded | |---|---|---|---| | 2026-10-05 | $545,775.68 | 1 | 2017202 | | 2026-10-07 | $2,446,721.94 | 2 | 2017989 · 2018051 | | 2026-10-09 | $2,538,212.13 | 4 | 2019082 · 2018818 · 2018799 · 2018719 | | 2026-10-10 | $3,182,893.68 | 5 | 2019248 · 2019188 · 2019226 · 2019269 · 2019244 | | 2026-10-12 | $3,304,339.94 | 2 | 2020139 · 2019826 | | 2026-10-13 | $11,250.00 | 1 | 2020825 | | 2026-10-15 | $1,307,764.00 | 1 | 2027306 | | 2026-10-16 | $2,931,930.38 | 1 | 2028906 | | 2026-10-15→17 | $908,610.17 | 1 | 2026573 · 2028741 | | 2026-10-21 | $4,793,727.03 | 1 | 2035494 | | 2026-10-22 | $3,646,264.31 | 1 | 2039319 | | 2026-10-23 | $2,720,774.50 | 7 | 2040931 · 2040751 | | **2026-10-24** | **$8,281,068.63** | **10** | eleven filings, listed above | | **Floor** | **$36,619,332.39** | | | **The shape of it.** For the first week the money came from the Republican side and was aimed at the Democrat: the [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s spending committee opened on 5 October with $545,775.68 against [[Adam Hamilton]], and [[AFP Action]] followed on 7 October with a buy **split to the cent** between promoting [[Roger Marshall]] and attacking his opponent. On **10 October the direction reversed** — for the first time the majority of the day's money was pointed at the incumbent — and it has not reversed back. Six of the last eight days are majority anti-Marshall. ## Who is spending it | Committee | What it is | Role here | |---|---|---| | **[[Lower Costs Now]]** | super PAC, FEC C00961276, filing from PO Box 15845, Washington DC | the race's largest single-day spender, $4,255,867.00 on 24 October, both directions | | **[[WinSenate]]** | Senate Democrats' principal independent-expenditure vehicle | $4,793,727.03 on 21 October, after $1.3M on 15 October and $2.0M on 12 October | | **SLF PAC** | the [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s spending committee | the first committee in, and a steady anti-Hamilton presence throughout | | **[[People Over Politics Action Fund]]** | Kansas-registered super PAC, first filed June 2026 | the first committee to spend against [[Roger Marshall]], 10 October | | **[[Government That Works PAC]]** | super PAC funded through non-contribution-account grants | $1,375,473.62 on 24 October, mostly promoting Hamilton | | **[[United Futures PAC]]** | super PAC with no disclosed donors of its own | has spent on both sides; $6.25M of its funding came from a single transfer | | **[[New Deal for All]]** | single-donor super PAC | $908,610.17 against Marshall in mid-October, and $1,323,500.00 on 23 October | | **[[AFP Action]]** | the Koch network's political arm | $2,032,590.00 on 7 October, in a race its announced $22.38M campaign did not include | | **[[Club for Growth Action]]** | conservative super PAC | $1,266,482.02 against Hamilton, 12 October | | **[[Our Heritage Matters]]** | super PAC with no disclosed funder | a two-sided buy promoting a minor candidate while attacking Marshall, on both 23 and 24 October | | **[[Tomorrow Together]]** | super PAC with no disclosed funder | $1,000,000.00 against Marshall, 23 October — 32.2% of its entire notice | ## The third-candidate buy, now on two consecutive days **[[Our Heritage Matters]]** has twice divided its Kansas money between **promoting a minor candidate, David C. Graham**, and **attacking [[Roger Marshall]]**: $94,980.49 on 23 October and $76,585.54 on 24 October, every dollar of it through one vendor, [[Chase Grove LLC]]. On 24 October the two halves are nearly matched — $37,813.29 promoting Graham against $38,772.25 attacking Marshall. In a race decided by a narrow margin, a small sum spent raising a third candidate's profile can move more votes than the same sum spent attacking a major-party opponent, because it moves voters who would otherwise have to choose between the two. This site records the identical technique pointed the other way at **[[Buckeye Freedom PAC]]**, which has split three consecutive notices fifty-fifty between promoting a Libertarian and attacking a Republican in Ohio. **Who funds Our Heritage Matters is not on the public record**, and nothing here asserts who is behind it — only that the pattern is now twice-repeated and that it works in both directions. ## A caution about names on these filings Candidates appear on these filings under more than one spelling, and a total built by matching a single spelling will be wrong. On 24 October alone, [[Adam Hamilton]] appears as `HAMILTON, ADAM` and as `"HAMILTON", "ADAM"` — with the quotation marks inside the name field — and [[Roger Marshall]] appears as both `MARSHALL, ROGER` and `MARSHALL, ROGER W`. The figures on this page are built by matching every spelling. ## Why it matters - **Spending disagrees with the forecasts.** Seventeen committees, from both directions, have put eight figures into a seat the public ratings treated as safe. Either a great many well-funded operations are wrong about Kansas, or the ratings are. - **Some of it cannot be traced at all.** At least three of the committees above — [[United Futures PAC]], [[Our Heritage Matters]] and [[Tomorrow Together]] — have disclosed no donors of their own, and two of the three were unknown to this site a week ago. The reports that would name their funders are not due until **after** the votes are counted. - **Two of the biggest spenders file from the same post-office box.** [[Lower Costs Now]] and [[United Futures PAC]] both file from PO Box 15845, Washington DC 20003, and between them they put **$4,445,676.02** into Kansas on 24 October — 53.7% of the day. What a shared address does and does not establish is set out at [[PO Box 15845 DC Three Committee Cluster October 2026]]. - **The race was reallocated into, not budgeted for.** The [[Senate Leadership Fund]] moved money here by pulling it out of North Carolina. [[AFP Action]] spent here five days after announcing a five-state campaign that did not include Kansas. Nobody planned this race; they all arrived in it. ## See also - [[KS-Sen-2026]] — the race page, with the full filing-by-filing log - [[Roger Marshall]] · [[Adam Hamilton]] · [[Bill Graves]] · [[Mike Hayden]] - [[Independent Expenditure]] · [[Dark Money]] · [[Donor Network Hub]] - [[2026 Senate Races Hub]]