# Kansas U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot Roger Marshall (R) is running for a second term in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Former Gov. [[Laura Kelly]] ruled out a Senate bid in 2024–2025 — removing the only Democrat with plausible statewide baseline strength and solidifying this as Likely R. **RESOLVED AUG 4:** the crowded Democratic field produced a nominee — **Adam Hamilton**, pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, one of the largest United Methodist congregations in the country. Marshall was renominated without difficulty. A megachurch pastor is an unusual Democratic Senate nominee in Kansas and the profile is the interesting variable here, not the rating. **Cook moved the race to Lean R on 2026-09-23, then to Toss Up on 2026-10-06** — the snapshot's earlier "Likely R, on the tracker for completeness" framing is superseded. By early October the race is live: Hamilton is polling even with or narrowly ahead of Marshall, a second former Republican governor has endorsed him, and national Republican money is being pulled out of North Carolina to defend this seat. The state's presidential lean (Trump +16 in 2024) still makes it an uphill race; it is no longer a formality. ## Incumbent - **[[Roger Marshall]]** (R) — senator since 2021. Former U.S. Rep (KS-01, 2017–2021); OB/GYN. Won 2020 Senate open seat 53–42 over Barbara Bollier. Agriculture, HELP, Banking committees. Reliable R vote; strong tie to Kansas farm-bureau network. Running for a second term. ## Republican primary (August 4, 2026) - **Roger Marshall** — incumbent; uncontested establishment lane - **Chase LaPorte** — minor challenger; insufficient resources or profile to compete ## Democratic primary (August 4, 2026) - **Eight or more filed candidates** (filing deadline June 1). - **Won: [[Adam Hamilton]]**, pastor of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection in Leawood, one of the largest United Methodist congregations in the country. He is the **Democratic nominee**, not an independent — earlier notes on this page describing him as an independent reflected pre-primary speculation about an [[Dan Osborn]]-style unaffiliated run that did not happen. Corrected 2026-09-19. ## Ratings history - **2026-10-06 — Cook: Toss Up** (from Lean R) — moved with New Hampshire (to Lean D) and North Carolina (to Likely D); Cook said the Democratic majority is "squarely within the range of the four seats they need to net" - **2026-09-23 — Cook: Lean R** (from Likely R) — one of three Senate moves toward Democrats that day, with Georgia and South Carolina. - 2026-04 — Cook: Likely R - Pre-Kelly decision (2024): Solid R with Kelly speculation - Post-Kelly ruled out: Likely R / Solid R in practice ## Key dates - 2026-06-01 — Kansas filing deadline - 2026-08-04 — Kansas primaries - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Money - Marshall: Q1 2026 data TBD; incumbent + R-committee support - Democratic field: highly fragmented fundraising - **Superseded 2026-10-03:** this page previously said no significant external spending was expected and that Kansas was off the competitive map. The [[Senate Leadership Fund]] moved seven figures into the race on 2026-10-02, reallocated from [[NC-Sen-2026]]. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — SLF PAC enters Kansas with $545,775.68 The [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s **SLF PAC** (C00571703) disclosed its **first independent expenditures in this race** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-05**. | File | Received | Expenditure date | Amount | Direction | Lines | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | **2017202** | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-03 | **$545,775.68** | **oppose** [[Adam Hamilton]] | 3 | The three rows carry a running aggregate of **$545,775.68**, equal to the line sum — which indicates this is the committee's **first spending in Kansas this cycle**. The notice as a whole totals $1,237,321.44 across five states; Kansas is its second-largest leg after Ohio. **Why it matters for the rating.** The page already records that national Republican money was being pulled out of North Carolina to defend this seat. This is the first direct filing evidence of that: the Senate majority's principal super-PAC vehicle, which had spent nothing in Kansas, put over half a million dollars against the Democratic nominee four weeks out. On the same notice SLF PAC spent **$7,500.00** against [[Roy Cooper]] in North Carolina — a seventy-to-one ratio between the two states. Per Rule 4c, aggregates on other rows of this notice (Sherrod Brown $42,328,915.09, Troy Jackson $20,265,926.76, Abdul El-Sayed $27,421,795.65) are **not** published as race or committee totals. These figures are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-05 per Rule 6. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2017202.fec` ## Intel notes - **Kelly's non-candidacy is the structural story**: Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to Senate since 1932. The only viable Democratic candidate in the modern era was Kelly, who won two gubernatorial races in R cycles. Without her, no Democratic pathway. - **Marshall's 2024-2025 profile**: Marshall has been relatively low-key compared to Senate media brawlers; his second-term profile will depend on whether he takes a committee chairmanship in the 120th Congress. - **Hamilton ran and won as a Democrat.** The pre-primary [[Dan Osborn]] comparison — a socially-conservative independent challenging an R incumbent in a deep-red state — is no longer the right frame. He carries a party label, and the interesting variable is the megachurch-pastor profile, not ballot status. - **Farm bureau dynamics**: Kansas farm economy is feeling tariff pressure similar to Iowa's. The claim that Marshall's OB/GYN / farm-state positioning insulates him is **no longer supported** on either half: the medical-debt lawsuits turned the OB/GYN identity into a liability (see [[Roger Marshall]]), and the tariff-driven defection this page said had not appeared arrived on 2026-10-02 with the [[Mike Hayden]] endorsement. Revised 2026-10-03. ## Crossover endorsement — Bill Graves, September 2026 **[[Bill Graves]]**, two-term Republican governor of Kansas (1995–2003), endorsed **[[Adam Hamilton]]** over [[Roger Marshall]] in mid-September 2026, cutting an ad for the Democratic nominee and telling CNN he does not recognize the current Republican Party. > [!quote] Bill Graves, September 2026 > "For the last six years, Senator Roger Marshall has turned his back on Kansas." This is part of a broader pattern of Republican officials endorsing Democrats in red states in the 2026 cycle — see [[MT-01-2026]] ([[Marc Racicot]] for [[Sam Forstag]]) and [[TX-Sen-2026]]. It did not by itself move the Likely R rating at the time (Cook moved Kansas to Lean R on Sept 23) in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, but it is the kind of permission structure that shows up in split-ticket numbers. Separately, Kansas attorney general **[[Kris Kobach]]**, seeking reelection, said in September 2026 that he has **no plans to seek a Trump endorsement** — "I don't think it's necessary" — in a state Trump carried with 57.1% in 2024. See [[Kris Kobach]]. ## October 2026 — the race goes live **2026-10-02 — second Republican ex-governor endorses Hamilton.** [[Mike Hayden]], governor of Kansas 1987–1991, endorsed [[Adam Hamilton]] in a *Wichita Eagle* op-ed, following [[Bill Graves]] in September. Hayden's stated grounds were farm-economy costs, not Trump's conduct: > [!quote] Mike Hayden, October 2, 2026 > "Governing should always center around the best interests of the people." He named the mechanism explicitly — "[c]haotic tariffs are making it harder for Kansas farmers to sell what they grow," the Iran war "causing record-high diesel prices, driving up the cost of planting, harvesting, and hauling," and "more family farms are at risk of going bankrupt" — and faulted [[Roger Marshall]] for backing both "despite what is happening back in Kansas." That is the tariff-driven rural defection this page's Intel notes said had not yet appeared; it has now appeared at the level of former statewide officeholders. See [[Tariffs]] and [[Iran War 2026 Timeline]]. **2026-10-02 — national Republican money arrives.** The [[Senate Leadership Fund]] **paused its North Carolina program** and moved seven figures into Kansas to defend Marshall. A committee-aligned super PAC spending here at all is the rating change made material: SLF is reallocating from a swing state it has conceded to a state Trump carried by 16. **Polling.** Hamilton reached a narrow lead in some early-October surveys and a statistical tie in others. Treat it as a genuinely competitive race within margin of error, not as a Hamilton lead. > [!warning] Unresolved > Cook's Lean R rating predates both the Hayden endorsement and the SLF reallocation. Whether the rating moves again is the thing to watch; this page should not anticipate it. ## Related KB entities - [[Roger Marshall]] — incumbent - [[Adam Hamilton]] — Democratic nominee (won Aug 4 primary) - [[Bill Graves]] — former R governor, endorsed Hamilton September 2026 - [[Mike Hayden]] — former R governor, endorsed Hamilton 2026-10-02 - [[Senate Leadership Fund]] — moved money into the race 2026-10-02 - [[Kris Kobach]] — Kansas AG, also on the 2026 ballot - TBD: Laura Kelly (Democratic non-candidate, former KS Governor) ## Content leads - **Blog**: low priority; possible "The Kansas Democratic Ceiling" analysis - **Data**: KS farm-economy data vs. Senate election results 1976-2024 as a tariff-impact baseline - Skip [[YouTube]] and merch — no competitive angle ## Outside spending ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-13 — $11,250.00 of new spending, and the funder of the anti-Marshall programme is finally named Kansas took only **$11,250.00** of **new** independent expenditure on e-file receipt date **2026-10-13** — but the receipt side of the same tranche answered the biggest open question in this log. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | [[United Futures PAC]] | 2020825 | $5,625.00 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | not itemised | | [[United Futures PAC]] | 2020825 | $5,625.00 | **oppose** [[Roger Marshall]] | not itemised | 🔴 **$6,250,000.00 — 93.69% of [[People Over Politics Action Fund]]'s money — comes from one committee.** The committee that filed the **$2,619,516.00** single-line expenditure against [[Roger Marshall]] on receipt date 2026-10-10 filed its **Q3 Form 3X two days early** (file **2020411**, received **2026-10-13T11:38:46**), and the answer is **[[United Futures PAC]]** — FEC **C00960385**, a Washington DC post-office box that **registered on 2026-08-31**, three days after the date of the first $2,000,000.00 it sent. | Line | Figure | |---|---| | People Over Politics Action Fund, Q3 receipts | **$6,670,525.05** | | — from [[United Futures PAC]] | **$6,250,000.00** (93.69%), two rows: 2026-08-28 and 2026-09-22 | | — The Bench | $100,000.00 | | — all individuals, itemised | $317,000.00, largest band **$50,000** | | Cash on hand, 2026-09-30 | **$3,185,276.55** | See [[United Futures PAC 6.25M to People Over Politics Action Fund]]. **The structure has two layers and the outer one still discloses nothing.** The spender is in Leawood, Kansas, with a Kansas treasurer and a Kansas target. The payer is a DC mailbox whose own Q3 Form 3X is due **2026-10-15**. Its treasurer, **Christopher Koob**, also signs **[[Back the Bold]]** (C00771113, Moline IL), which disclosed **$1,100,000.01** from a single Chicago entity with no FEC identity on the same receipt date — see [[Responsive Government Action 1.1M to Back the Bold]]. And **[[New Path PAC]]** (C00963470) registered on **2026-10-13** at United Futures PAC's own PO box. 🔴 **And the mailbox is shared with the Iowa programme.** **PO Box 15845, Washington DC 20003** hosts three federal committees: [[United Futures PAC]]; **[[Lower Costs Now]]** (C00961276, treasurer Steven Mele), which has put **$1,784,745.89** of disclosed Schedule E into [[IA-Sen-2026]] supporting [[Josh Turek]]; and [[New Path PAC]]. Kansas and Iowa have been logged as unrelated races all autumn. A shared mailbox is **not proof of common control** — three different treasurers, and the two spenders are buying on opposite sides of the partisan line in their own races. See [[PO Box 15845 DC Three Committee Cluster October 2026]]. **Also on the record for Kansas this tranche, on the soft side.** [[Way Back PAC]] — a Wyoming hybrid PAC that took **$2,000,000.00** from two entities with no FEC identity — re-granted Q3 money to Kansas down-ballot candidates including Chris Mann for Attorney General, Dinah Sykes for Insurance Commissioner, Jen Day for Secretary of State, Kansans for a Democratic House, and **Hamilton For Kansas**. See [[Way Back PAC 2M Dark Money Grants Q3 2026]]. **This is state and local soft money, not federal independent expenditure, and it is not counted in the $11,250.00 above.** ⚠️ **Rule 4h:** People Over Politics Action Fund's Q3 report also carries **$3,446,247.00** of Schedule E restating notices already filed — Screen Strategies Media $2,592,240.00, Tavern Research $800,000.00, Dixon / Davis Media Group LLC $54,007.00. It is **not new spending** and is excluded from this date's total. ⚠️ **PARTIAL-DAY FIRST READ.** From the 2026-10-13 tranche, swept at 21:00 ET with the receipt date still open — newest filing on the date at query time was received 21:10:03 ET (Rule 6, partial-day clause). ### Receipt date 2026-10-12 — $3,304,339.94, and WinSenate joins the anti-Marshall buy Kansas took **$3,304,339.94** across **6 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-12**, split almost evenly between the two sides: **$2,037,857.92 (61.67%) opposes [[Roger Marshall]]** and **$1,266,482.02 (38.33%) opposes [[Adam Hamilton]]**. **Not one dollar on this receipt date supports anybody.** | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **WinSenate** | **2020139** | **$2,037,857.92** | **oppose [[Roger Marshall]]** | Waterfront Strategies | | **Club for Growth Action** | **2019826** | **$1,266,482.02** | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | Medium Buying LLC ($1,266,401.70) · Club for Growth ($80.32) | 🔴 **A watch trigger fired.** The 2026-10-11 digest set: *"whether any other committee opposes Roger Marshall — trigger: any anti-Marshall Schedule E row from any committee."* On 2026-10-10 [[People Over Politics Action Fund]] was alone at $2,619,516.00 against the incumbent. **WinSenate is the second committee, two days later, at $2,037,857.92** — and it is the Senate Democrats' own flagship independent-expenditure vehicle, not a pop-up. Anti-Marshall spending in this log now totals **$4,657,373.92 across two committees and three days**, which makes it a programme rather than one buy. Both expenditure dates are **2026-10-10**. WinSenate's aggregate column on the Marshall rows reads **$2,037,857.92** — i.e. this notice is its entire Kansas position to date, so Kansas is a new front for it. ⚠️ **First read.** From the 2026-10-12 tranche, swept at 21:00 ET with the receipt date still open (Rule 6, partial-day clause). Figures are a partial-day first read of that receipt date. ### Receipt date 2026-10-10 — $3,182,893.68, and the money turns on Marshall Kansas took **$3,182,893.68** across **6 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-10** — and for the first time in this log **the majority of it is aimed at the Republican incumbent**. **$2,619,516.00 (82.30%) opposes [[Roger Marshall]]**, **$559,211.01 (17.57%) opposes [[Adam Hamilton]]**, and **$4,166.67 (0.13%) supports [[Adam Hamilton]]**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[People Over Politics Action Fund]]** | **2019248** | **$2,619,516.00** | **oppose [[Roger Marshall]]** | Screen Strategies Media | | Main Street Fund | 2019188 | $350,000.00 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | [[MHB Media Inc]] | | **SLF PAC** | **2019226** | $138,211.01 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | Creative Direct | | Fund For A Working Congress | 2019269 | $71,000.00 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | On The Ballot LLC · South Creek Group LLC | | [[United Futures PAC]] | 2019244 | $4,166.67 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | 270 Strategies | **Derived total: $3,182,893.68.** 🔴 **The finding is the direction, not the amount.** Across the three preceding tranches logged here — 2026-10-05, 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-09 — **not one dollar of outside money opposed Roger Marshall.** This notice is a single Schedule E line larger than the entire 2026-10-09 Kansas tranche, and it is pointed at the incumbent. **[[People Over Politics Action Fund]]** is new to this vault: a Kansas-registered super PAC first filed 2026-06-11, treasurer Gregory T. Wolf, which has read no vault page until now. **SLF PAC's Kansas position is decelerating as the anti-Marshall money arrives.** Its notices here run $545,775.68 (2026-10-05) → $1,886,538.88 (2026-10-09) → **$138,211.01** (2026-10-10), and the last of the three switched vendor from [[Flexpoint Media]] and Right Target Media to Creative Direct. **[[MHB Media Inc]] appears in Kansas.** Main Street Fund — a Massachusetts-registered super PAC, treasurer Charles Gantt, first filed 2026-08-04 — placed its whole $350,000.00 through the buyer this vault records on SLF PAC, No Going Back PAC, North Star and [[The Maine Standard]]. These rows are not summed into a race total; the anti-Marshall row carries an aggregate of $6,065,763.00 against an amount of $2,619,516.00, which indicates earlier spending not reviewed here. This is a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-10, taken while that day's filings were still arriving (the newest filing on the feed was received 21:12:39), so the figure may rise as late filings post. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019248.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019188.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019226.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019269.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019244.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $2,538,212.13, and SLF PAC triples its Kansas position Kansas took **$2,538,212.13** across **10 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09**. **Every oppose dollar and every support dollar concerns the same candidate, [[Adam Hamilton]]**: **$2,427,712.13 (95.65%) against him** and **$110,500.00 (4.35%) for him**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$1,886,538.88** | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | | [[Win It Back PAC]] | 2018818 | $519,950.85 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | | [[United Futures PAC]] | 2018799 | $110,500.00 | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | | Club for Growth Action | 2018719 | $21,222.40 | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | **Derived total: $2,538,212.13.** SLF PAC's position runs through [[Flexpoint Media]] $1,286,538.88 and **Right Target Media $600,000.00** — a vendor new to this vault. **Kansas is no longer an unanticipated entry.** SLF PAC's first expenditure here was **$545,775.68** on receipt date 2026-10-05, five days after it paused its North Carolina programme. This single notice is **3.5 times that**, which closes the carried watch item asking whether the Kansas move was a one-off. These rows are not summed into a race total. > [!note] Re-checked 2026-10-11 — this figure is settled > The figures above were a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while > that day's filings were still arriving. Re-checked on 2026-10-11, Kansas returns **$2,538,212.13 across 10 > Schedule E lines — identical to the cent**, with the same four committees and the same four file numbers. > None of the late arrivals that took the national tranche up 48.76% were Kansas money. **This figure may > be quoted without the partial-day caveat.** Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018818.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018799.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018719.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $2,446,721.94, and Kansas was not in [[AFP Action]]'s announced map | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$1,016,295.00** | support [[Roger Marshall]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$1,016,295.00** | oppose [[Adam Hamilton]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AB PAC]]** | **2018051** | **$414,131.94** | **support** [[Adam Hamilton]] | [[AdQuick]] / [[Lamar Companies]] / Target Platform | **Derived total: $2,446,721.94.** Pro-Marshall $1,016,295.00 · anti-Hamilton $1,016,295.00 · pro-Hamilton $414,131.94. 🔴 **The structural finding is that this race should not be on the notice at all.** On **2026-10-02** [[AFP Action]] publicly announced a **$22.38 million ad campaign** naming five Senate races — Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska. **Kansas is in none of it.** Five days later the committee filed **$2,032,590.00** here, **split to the cent** between the support and oppose side. A $2M entry into a sixth Senate race, unannounced, five days after a release that omitted it, is a change of plan the committee did not disclose. The split-to-the-cent figure is the invoice-allocation signature this task has recorded on four prior committees: identical dollars on both sides describes one purchase divided in the ledger, not two campaigns. See [[AFP Action 16.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]] and [[AB PAC 22.8M Billboard IE October 2026]]. ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — Kansas Senate 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas,_2026) - [Wikipedia — 2026 Senate election in Kansas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas) - [KCUR — Kansas 2026 candidates guide](https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2025-12-30/whos-running-to-represent-kansas-in-the-u-s-senate-in-2026-heres-a-guide-to-the-candidates) - [Cook Political Report — Kansas Senate](https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488581) - [KSN — Former Republican Kansas governor endorses Adam Hamilton](https://www.ksn.com/news/politics/former-kansas-governor-endorses-adam-hamilton-in-us-senate-race/) - [The Hill — Kansas's former GOP governor backs Democrat over Marshall](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/6093288-graves-endorses-hamilton-senate/) - [Washington Examiner — Bill Graves endorses Adam Hamilton](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4730589/bill-graves-endorse-adam-hamilton-kansas-senate/) - [News From the States — Kobach not seeking Trump's endorsement](https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/kansas-ag-kris-kobach-not-seeking-trumps-endorsement-i-dont-think-its-necessary) - [The Hill — Former Kansas GOP Gov. Mike Hayden endorses Democrat Adam Hamilton](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6126457-hayden-endorses-hamilton-kansas-senate/) - [Mediaite — Mike Hayden endorses Adam Hamilton in tight Senate race](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/another-republican-ex-governor-of-kansas-endorses-democrat-in-tight-senate-race/) - [Semafor — Top GOP group pauses Senate spending in N.C., goes up in Kansas](https://www.semafor.com/article/10/02/2026/republicans-pull-ad-spending-from-north-carolina) - [Letters from an American, October 2, 2026 — Heather Cox Richardson](https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-2-2026)