# Idaho U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot **[[Jim Risch]], 83, vs. independent [[Todd Achilles]] — with no Democrat on the ballot.** Risch took the May 19 Republican primary with 67.3%. Democratic nominee David Roth (61.9% in his primary) withdrew July 28 after the Ada County Democratic Central Committee gave him a July 8 ultimatum — raise $50,000 and produce a plan by August 12 or the committee would back Achilles — and formally removed his name September 2. Achilles, a former Democratic state representative who resigned to run unaffiliated, is the [[Dan Osborn]] model executed the way Montana's was not: the Democrat actually left. The polling is noisier than the rating: the Achilles-aligned Bullfinch Group had him **ahead 38–33** in mid-August while a Republican poll had Risch 52–18; the aggregate is Risch +12.5. Every forecaster says Solid/Safe R, and no Republican has lost an Idaho Senate race since 1974. ## Incumbent - **[[Jim Risch]]** (R) — senator since 2009, seeking a fourth term; Senate Foreign Relations chair; former governor and lieutenant governor. Born May 3, 1943 — 83 now, 89 at the end of a fourth term. Trump-endorsed March 2025. $4.43M raised, $3.54M cash on hand through June 30. ## How the nominations were decided (May 19, 2026) ### Republican primary | Candidate | Votes | % | |---|---|---| | **Jim Risch** | 156,140 | **67.3** | | Josh Roy | — | 14.3 | | Joe Evans | — | 14.1 | | Denny LaVé | — | 4.4 | ### Democratic primary — and withdrawal | Candidate | Votes | % | |---|---|---| | **David Roth** | 29,534 | **61.9** (final; ~65% on preliminary returns) | | Brad Moore | — | 31.1 | | Nickolas Bonds | — | 7.0 | Roth withdrew July 28, publicly refusing the Ada County committee's terms, and had his name removed September 2. He has not endorsed Achilles. ## General election - **[[Jim Risch]]** (R) - **[[Todd Achilles]]** (I) — Army veteran 1992–1995, technology executive, Boise State instructor; Idaho House District 16 (elected as a Democrat) February 2024–June 2025, resigned to run unaffiliated. Endorsed by AFGE and the Forward Party. $692K raised, $194K cash on hand through June 30. - Matt Loesby (L), Natalie Fleming (I). | Poll | Dates | Risch | Achilles | |---|---|---|---| | Bullfinch Group (Achilles-aligned; 608 LV) | Aug 16–19 | 33 | **38** | | Peak Insights (R; 500 LV) | Aug 11–13 | **52** | 18 | | Bullfinch (608 LV) | Aug 4–7 | 34 | 30 | | Change Research (D; 1,213 LV) | Jul 28–30 | 45 | 21 | | PPP (639 RV) | Mar 16–17 | 48 | 34 | Race to the WH aggregate through Aug 19: Risch 42.0, Achilles 29.5. ## Ratings history - Cook Solid R (Aug 20) · Inside Elections Solid R (Aug 6) · Sabato Safe R (Aug 26). Unchanged. ## Key dates - 2026-05-19 — primaries (held) - 2026-07-28 — Roth withdraws - 2026-09-02 — Roth's name removed from the ballot - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Intel notes - **The Osborn model, executed.** Idaho is the 2026 case where the Democratic nominee actually cleared the field for an independent — under duress from his own county party, not by design, and without endorsing the beneficiary. The polling spread (Risch +34 to Achilles +5) is what a two-way race with an undefined independent looks like before either side spends; the aggregate still has Risch by double digits. Read alongside [[MT-Sen-2026]], where the Democrat stayed in. - **Risch's age**, not Achilles, is the durable question: 89 at the end of the term, with Gov. [[Brad Little]] holding the appointment if he leaves early. The bench is Bedke, Fulcher, Simpson. - **No MAGA primary challenge** materialized against an institutionalist Foreign Relations chair — the counterexample to Graham and Cassidy. ## Related KB entities - [[Jim Risch]] · [[Todd Achilles]] · [[Brad Little]] - [[Dan Osborn]] — the model · [[MT-Sen-2026]] — the counter-case - [[Gerontocracy]] ## Content leads - **Blog**: "Two states tried the Osborn model in 2026. Only one Democrat left." — Idaho vs. Montana. - **Data**: age distribution of Senate committee chairs, 2027. ## Sources - [Idaho Capital Sun — Risch wins GOP primary (May 19, 2026)](https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/05/19/risch-wins-republican-primary-for-u-s-senate/) - [Idaho Capital Sun — Roth ends campaign (July 28, 2026)](https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/07/28/idaho-democrat-david-roth-ends-campaign-for-us-senate-seat-held-by-risch/) - [Idaho Capital Sun — Roth removes name from ballot (Sept 2, 2026)](https://idahocapitalsun.com/2026/09/02/idaho-us-senate-candidate-david-roth-removes-name-from-general-election-ballot/) - [Wikipedia — 2026 Idaho Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Idaho)