# Alaska U.S. Senate 2026 ## Snapshot A genuine race on a map that had been rated Solid R a year ago. **Mary Peltola's January 2026 entry** shifted Cook to Lean R — her Q1 fundraising ($9M, quadruple Sullivan's total) and statewide political stature transformed the race. Peltola won the 2022 special election as the first Democrat to represent Alaska in the House since 1972 and the first Alaska Native elected to Congress; she lost her seat narrowly in 2024 to Nick Begich III. Dan Sullivan is running for a third term; Trump carried Alaska by 14 points in 2024. The state's ranked-choice voting system benefits Peltola's cross-party appeal. Data for Progress had Sullivan 46 / Peltola 45 first-choice in the spring; prediction markets showed Peltola at 65%. **RESOLVED AUG 18 — and Cook now rates it a Toss Up.** Both Sullivan and Peltola advanced out of the top-four primary, confirming the matchup. Two complications came with it: 1. **A second Dan Sullivan appears likely to be on the November ballot** — a retired teacher of the same name, whom Republicans have accused of running as a spoiler. Under ranked-choice with a shared surname at the top of the ballot, this is a live ballot-confusion risk rather than a curiosity. 2. **Ballot Measure 2 is on the same ballot** and would repeal the top-four primary and ranked-choice general outright, along with rolling back campaign-disclosure rules. A near-identical measure failed in 2024 by **737 votes out of ~321,000**. So Alaska may be using this system for the last time, in the same election where it decides a Senate seat. ## Incumbent - **[[Dan Sullivan]]** (R) — senator since 2015. Former Alaska Attorney General (2009–2010) and Commissioner of Natural Resources (2010–2013). Marine Corps Reserve; Iraq / Afghanistan service. Two terms; re-elected 2020 with 53.9%. Armed Services, Veterans' Affairs, Environment and Public Works committees. Reliable institutional Republican; Trump-aligned on most votes. ## Primary (nonpartisan top-4, August 18, 2026) Alaska's system: **all candidates on a single primary ballot; top 4 advance to November**. November uses **ranked-choice voting** with instant-runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%. ### Republicans - **Dan Sullivan** — incumbent ### Democrats - **Mary Peltola** — former U.S. Rep (AK-AL, 2022–2025). Won 2022 special election following Don Young's death (defeated [[Sarah Palin]] in RCV final round). Lost 2024 to Nick Begich III. Alaska Native (Yup'ik); only Alaska Democrat to win statewide since Mark Begich (2008). Q1 2026: **$9M raised — quadruple Sullivan's Q1**. ### The other Dan Sullivan A retired teacher named **Dan Sullivan** also appeared headed for the November ballot as votes were still being counted after Aug 18. Republicans have accused him of running as a spoiler. On a ranked-choice ballot where voters rank names rather than pick one, two identical surnames at the top is a mechanical risk, not just a talking point — and Alaska has precedent for close statewide margins (Ballot Measure 2 failed by 737 votes in 2024). > [!warning] Unresolved > Written 2026-08-31 from reporting published while Alaska was still counting. The second Sullivan's ballot status should be confirmed against the Division of Elections certification before this page is cited. Flagged rather than omitted because the spoiler dynamic materially changes how the race should be read. ## Ratings history - **Late Aug 2026 — Toss Up** (still Toss Up in Cook's Sept 23 ratings). Cook moved it after the primary confirmed the Sullivan–Peltola matchup. - 2026-04 — Cook: Lean R - 2026-01 — Cook: shifted from Solid R to Lean R following Peltola's entry The April note on this page predicted "potential Toss Up shift if Peltola maintains polling parity through summer." She did, and it did. ## Key dates - 2026-06-01 — Alaska filing deadline - 2026-08-18 — nonpartisan top-4 primary; Sullivan and Peltola both advanced - 2026-11-03 — general (ranked-choice), **and** Ballot Measure 2 on whether to abolish this system ## Money - Peltola Q1: $9M raised — an extraordinary hauling figure for a state with 733K population - Sullivan Q1: ~$2.3M — dwarfed on the topline - Sullivan benefits from incumbent advantages + NRSC; expect major outside-spending ramp-up starting Q2 - DSCC deploying to Alaska for the first time since 2008 in a meaningful way - Total spending likely $30M+ — highest Alaska Senate spend in history ### Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-09 — $2,855,378.81, and a second committee joins the anti-Peltola buy Alaska took **$2,855,378.81** across **12 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-09** — **$2,787,795.84 (97.63%) negative**. **$1,774,827.84 is aimed at [[Mary Peltola]]** and **$1,012,968.00 at [[Dan Sullivan]]**; the only positive money is **$67,582.97 for [[Dan Sullivan]]**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | |---|---|---|---| | **SLF PAC** | **2019082** | **$1,643,076.12** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | | Forward Alaska | 2018789 | **$1,012,968.00** | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | | 59 PAC | 2018776 | $95,876.00 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | | Club for Growth Action | 2018711 | $67,582.97 | **support** [[Dan Sullivan]] | | [[AFP Action]] | 2018837 | $35,875.72 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | **Derived total: $2,855,378.81.** Two committees on the **same side** of this race bought through the **same vendor on the same day**: SLF PAC paid [[Flexpoint Media]] $1,639,582.87 against [[Mary Peltola]], and **[[59 PAC]]** paid [[Flexpoint Media]] $95,876.00 against her as well. > [!important] 🔴 Resolved 2026-10-11 — the two committees do link, through their treasurer > This page previously recorded the numeric-name resemblance between **[[59 PAC]]** and **[[75 PAC]]** as > *"recorded, not concluded"*, with 59 PAC's registration unread. **It has now been read: 59 PAC is FEC > C00961698, an Alaska super PAC first filed 2026-09-16, and its treasurer is [[Trevor Kowalski]]** — > the same treasurer as 75 PAC (Ohio), [[Cornhusker Majority]] (Nebraska) and [[The Maine Standard]] > (Maine). **The resemblance was a cluster, and Alaska is its fourth state.** The answer was on page one > of file 2018776, already in this tranche. See [[59 PAC]] and [[Trevor Kowalski]]. **Forward Alaska's $1,012,968.00** is the largest single-day anti-Sullivan position in the vault, placed through Screen Strategies Media ($899,968.00), KMM Strategies ($100,000.00) and Wildfire Contact LLC ($13,000.00). These rows are not summed into a race total. > [!note] Re-checked 2026-10-11 — the Peltola figure holds > The figures above were a **partial-day first read** of receipt date 2026-10-09, taken while > that day's filings were still arriving. Re-checked on 2026-10-11, the anti-Peltola total for that receipt > date is **$1,774,827.84 across 7 lines — unchanged to the cent.** The tranche as a whole grew 48.76% > on re-derivation, but none of the late arrivals were Alaska money. This figure may now be quoted without > the partial-day caveat. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2019082.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018789.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018776.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018711.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018837.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — $5,301,537.21 from seven committees, 83.62% negative Alaska took **$5,301,537.21** across **16 Schedule E lines** on e-file receipt date **2026-10-08** — **$4,433,257.96 (83.62%) negative** against **$868,279.25** positive, and **$4,433,109.21 of the negative side is aimed at [[Dan Sullivan]]**. | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[North Star]]** | **2018478** | **$1,562,766.77** | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | **[[North Star]]** | **2018478** | **$1,100,000.00** | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | MVAR Media, LLC | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$868,130.50** | **support** [[Dan Sullivan]] | [[MHB Media Inc]] | | [[No Going Back PAC]] | 2018548 | **$868,130.50** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | MHB Media, Inc | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | $552,912.68 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | [[Waterfront Strategies]] | | [[AB PAC]] | 2018367 | $180,000.00 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | Berni Consulting LLC | | [[Senate Leadership Fund]] (SLF PAC) | 2018550 | $83,393.18 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | Rival Strategy Group LLC | | [[Duty and Country]] | 2018466 | $75,000.00 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | MVAR Media, LLC | | [[WinSenate]] | 2018482 | $8,000.00 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | Social Currant | | [[North Star]] | 2018478 | $2,906.08 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | Alignco LLC | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $148.75 | **support** [[Dan Sullivan]] | Connection Strategy LLC | | [[America PAC]] | 2018497 | $148.75 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | Connection Strategy LLC | **Derived totals:** against [[Dan Sullivan]] **$3,481,585.53**; against [[Mary Peltola]] **$951,672.43**; for [[Dan Sullivan]] **$868,279.25**. Sum **$5,301,537.21**. 🔴 **Four separate committees spent against [[Dan Sullivan]] on one receipt date** — [[North Star]], [[WinSenate]], [[AB PAC]] and [[Duty and Country]] — and **two of them used the same vendor** (MVAR Media on North Star and Duty and Country) while two used [[Waterfront Strategies]]. The only positive money for the incumbent in the tranche is [[No Going Back PAC]]'s $868,130.50, mirrored to the cent against [[Mary Peltola]] in the same document. See [[No Going Back PAC 23.3M Multi-Race IE October 2026]] and [[WinSenate 19.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. The aggregate columns are not summed into an Alaska race total. These are a **first read** of receipt date 2026-10-08. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018478.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018548.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018482.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018367.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018550.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018466.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018497.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-07 — $2,257,803.81 from [[AFP Action]], 1.7:1 negative | Committee | File | Amount | Direction | Payees | |---|---|---|---|---| | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$1,416,401.91** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | **[[AFP Action]]** | **2017989** | **$841,401.90** | support [[Dan Sullivan]] | [[In Pursuit Of]] | | [[High Plains PAC]] | 2017843 | *$265,000.00* | support [[Dan Sullivan]] | [[Advocacy Architects]] | **Derived total, new money: $2,257,803.81.** Anti-Peltola $1,416,401.91 · pro-Sullivan $841,401.90. ⚠️ **The [[High Plains PAC]] $265,000 is NOT new money** — Q3 report file 2017843 identically restates Form 24 **2014017**, logged 2026-09-19, both unflagged originals. See FEC Back-Sweep Standard **Rule 4h**. Excluded from the total. See [[AFP Action 16.2M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. ### Receipt date 2026-10-05 — $162,270.00, and the Alabama address answers a question **[[Last Frontier PAC]]** (C00875278) disclosed **$162,270.00 opposing [[Mary Peltola]]** through [[Flexpoint Media]], the [[Senate Leadership Fund]]'s principal broadcast buyer. | File | Received | Expenditure date | Amount | Direction | Payee | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | **2016908** | 2026-10-05 | 2026-10-03 | **$162,270.00** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | [[Flexpoint Media]] | The committee's address of record is **421 Office Park Drive, Mountain Brook, Alabama 35223** — not Alaska. "The Last Frontier" is Alaska's state nickname. It is the purest instance of the [[State-Branded Super PAC Template]] in the vault, and it now has a page. 🔴 **A fifth committee appeared at that Alabama address on the same receipt date** — [[Stronger Safer Nation]], with a **$2,342,918.00** Florida Senate notice. See [[FL-Sen-2026-Special]] and [[Collins and Sununu Joint Fundraising Disclosures October 2026]]. A separate formation on this date also points at Alaska: **[[Red Alaska PAC]]** (C00963025) registered with **no money disclosed**, one of four in [[Datwyler Four Super PAC Formation Cluster October 2026]]. It is unrelated to Last Frontier PAC. The row's running aggregate of **$3,433,113.38** is **not** published as an Alaska race or committee total. First read of receipt date 2026-10-05. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016908.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-04 — $157,910.38, nearly all against Sullivan | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[Duty and Country]] | **$151,656.00** | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | MVAR Media, LLC — the whole notice | 2 | 2016844 | | [[WinSenate]] | $4,235.75 | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | Alignco LLC | 1 | 2016842 | | SLF PAC | $2,018.63 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | Creative Direct; FCG Media Strategies LLC | 1 | 2016717 | Expenditure date **2026-10-02**. 🔴 This is **[[Duty and Country]]'s second filing**. It names **no new funder** and files from the same address, 1032 15th St NW Ste 247, Washington DC — which is also [[WinSenate]]'s registered address, with a different treasurer. The aggregate on its rows equals the notice total exactly ($151,656.00), so this appears to be an end-state or first-notice figure for Alaska; it is not published as a committee total. A fourth anti-Sullivan line of $4,235.75 appears in the national tranche from a committee whose notice has not been read at file level. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016844.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016842.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016717.fec` **Receipt date 2026-10-02 — $3,021,592.31 across 13 lines, and it runs in both directions.** Figures derived from the raw filings; memo-flagged rows excluded per FEC Back-Sweep Standard Rule 4d. | Committee | Amount | Direction | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---| | SLF PAC | **$1,531,158.00** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | 3 | 2016506 | | [[Protecting Alaska Fishermen]] | **$1,416,276.83** | oppose [[Dan Sullivan]] | 6 | 2016253 | | [[America PAC]] | $11,045.72 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | 1 | 2016516 | Race-level tranche totals for the receipt date: **$1,601,079.72 opposing [[Mary Peltola]]** across 6 lines and **$1,420,512.59 opposing [[Dan Sullivan]]** across 7 lines. The residual above the three notices listed — $58,876.00 against Peltola and $4,235.76 against Sullivan — sits in smaller notices not individually read for this page. [[Protecting Alaska Fishermen]] is a first-time filer: FEC **C00962100**, treasurer **Jud Brown**, a Capitol Hill mail-drop address in Washington DC, and an aggregate exactly equal to its own notice, which is the signal that all of it is new money. Two of its six lines carry a **forward-dated** expenditure date of 2026-10-08. Prior tranche, receipt date 2026-09-25: SLF PAC $1,281,536.02 opposing [[Mary Peltola]] across 3 lines (file 2015242). See [[SLF 22.5M Senate IE October 2026]] and [[SLF 23.6M Senate IE September 2026]]. The aggregate column ($8,132,059.50 on the SLF rows) is **not** summed into a race total. These are first reads. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016506.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016253.fec` ### Receipt date 2026-10-03 — $1,802,097.09 across 17 lines | Committee | Amount | Direction | Vendor | Lines | File | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | [[AFP Action]] | **$932,055.91** | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 9 | 2016600 | | [[AFP Action]] | $702,330.00 | **support** [[Dan Sullivan]] | In Pursuit Of, LLC and mail houses | 6 | 2016600 | | SLF PAC | $83,393.18 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | Rival Strategy Group LLC | 1 | 2016566 | | Last Frontier PAC | $84,318.00 | oppose [[Mary Peltola]] | Red Right Media | 1 | 2016556 | **Totals: $1,099,767.09 against [[Mary Peltola]]; $702,330.00 for [[Dan Sullivan]]; $0.00 for Peltola and $0.00 against Sullivan.** Alaska is the smallest of the five Senate positions on [[AFP Action]]'s notice — $1,634,385.91, or 15.6% — and the only one where the oppose side exceeds the support side by less than 33%. See [[AFP Action 10.5M Senate Map IE October 2026]]. **Last Frontier PAC is an Alaska-branded committee filing from Alabama.** FEC **C00875278**, treasurer **Kirsten Quick**, **421 Office Park Drive, Mountain Brook, Alabama 35223**, buying through Red Right Media. It is a further instance of the pattern at [[State-Branded Super PAC Template]]: a committee named for the state it spends in, administered from somewhere else entirely. Its $84,318.00 line is far below any Deal threshold and is logged here only because the naming is the finding. The aggregate columns ($8,215,452.68 SLF, $4,419,639.09 AFP Action, $3,270,843.38 Last Frontier PAC) are **not** summed into Alaska race totals. These are **first reads**. Sources: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016600.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016566.fec` · `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2016556.fec` ## Intel notes - **RCV is the structural wildcard**: in 2022, Peltola's path to victory ran through second-choice votes from moderate-R Murkowski voters who ranked Peltola above Palin. Whether 2026 Alaska Republicans make that same move against Sullivan (who is more aligned with the Trump-MAGA wing than Murkowski) is the central tactical question. - **Peltola's fundraising ceiling is high because of identity stakes**: as Alaska Native candidate running statewide, Peltola draws national Native-rights donor networks that Sullivan cannot match. The $9M Q1 is not a flash — it's structural. - **Prediction markets vs. Cook ratings gap**: Cook Lean R, markets implied Peltola 65%. Markets are usually the sharper instrument in RCV states where the electorate's second-choice behavior is hard to poll. - **Trump +14 state math**: structural R advantage is real. Peltola won 2022 at the *House* level in RCV. Scaling that to statewide Senate over a full cycle (instead of special election) is a harder task. - **Measure 2 is the sleeper.** The race and the rules are on the same ballot. A Peltola win under RCV, in the same election that abolishes RCV, would be the sharpest illustration available of why the mechanism fight matters more than any single seat. ## Related KB entities - [[Dan Sullivan]] — incumbent - [[Mary Peltola]] — Democratic challenger - TBD: Alaska ranked-choice voting system (Concepts/) - TBD: [[Lisa Murkowski]] voting coalition (Ecosystems/) ## Content leads - **Blog**: "The Peltola Theory" — what ranked-choice voting does to the Senate map in 2026 - **[[YouTube]]**: Peltola's 2022-to-2026 arc — how an Alaska Native wins a Trump +14 state - **Data**: RCV second-choice modeling based on 2022 Peltola-Palin final - **Breaking**: Q2 fundraising report (July 2026) will be decisive — if Peltola sustains $5M+/quarter, the race is Toss Up ## Sources - [Wikipedia — 2026 Senate election in Alaska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) - [19th News — Peltola enters Senate race](https://19thnews.org/2026/01/mary-peltola-alaska-senate-2026/) - [Alaska Public Media — Peltola enters AK Senate race](https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/washington-d-c/2026-01-12/mary-peltola-enters-alaska-u-s-senate-race) - [Cook Political — Peltola announcement shifts AK to Lean R](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/peltola-announcement-alaska-senate-moves-lean-republican) - [Washington Times — RCV in Alaska Senate race](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/feb/16/ranked-choice-voting-add-wrinkle-gop-alaskas-us-senate-race/)