# WI-03 (2026) — Derrick Van Orden vs. Rebecca Cooke (likely rematch) > [!success] Primary result — August 11, 2026 > **Derrick Van Orden (R) 99.0%** (56,948) — effectively unopposed. **Rebecca Cooke (D) 60.5%** (56,650) over Emily Berge 39.5% (36,958), a 21-point win. > November: **Van Orden vs. Cooke**, a rematch of 2024, which Van Orden won by 2.7 points. Cook: **Toss Up**. Decision Desk HQ actually rates it **Lean D (flip)**. > > **The number to keep:** Democratic primary turnout was **93,673 against the Republicans' 57,523** — 63% higher, in a Republican-held seat. Contested primaries draw more voters than uncontested ones, so this is not a clean enthusiasm measure, but the raw gap in an R seat is the kind of thing that shows up in November postmortems either way. Cooke has also now out-raised the incumbent, $8.6M to $7.5M. ## Snapshot Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District — western Wisconsin (La Crosse, Eau Claire, the Driftless region). Sophomore Republican [[Derrick Van Orden]] (former Navy SEAL) flipped the seat in 2022 after 20+ years of D representation under Ron Kind; reelected 2024 over Rebecca Cooke **51.4%–48.6% (~2.8 points, ~11,000 votes)**. Critically, **Trump carried WI-03 by 7+ points in 2024 while Van Orden won by under 3** — Van Orden ran ~4 points behind Trump and also behind R Senate candidate Eric Hovde. **Cook shifted WI-03 from Lean R → Toss Up in December 2025.** [[Rebecca Cooke]] (D, 3rd run) outraised Van Orden **$2.4M to $1.3M** in Q1 2026 and reported **$4.4M+ COH** vs. Van Orden's $3.8M; by the primary she led on cycle fundraising **$8.6M to $7.5M**. Trump-endorsed Van Orden for reelection **2025-04-28**. ## Incumbent — Derrick Van Orden (R) Former Navy SEAL from Prairie du Chien. First elected 2022 (flipped seat after Ron Kind retirement). Reelected 2024 by ~2.8 points. **The underperformance gap**: Trump +7 in WI-03; Van Orden +2.8. **Only Wisconsin Republican congressman to run behind Trump in his district.** Also trailed [[Eric Hovde]] (R Senate) by roughly 4 points. Ed Miller (UW-Stevens Point, emeritus) attributed the gap to a perception that "Van Orden is not very liked in the district." **Controversy record (partial)** — documented, national-media-covered pattern: - **January 6, 2021**: Attended "[[Stop the Steal]]" rally, present at Capitol. Claims he did not enter Capitol grounds; Daily Beast report (disputed) placed him in a restricted area. No criminal charges. - **July 2024 RNC**: Falsely accused CodePink's Nour Jaghama of assault after he ran into her; Jaghama was arrested and held 15 hours. CodePink called the allegation false. - **2024 State of the Union**: Shouted "lies" during Biden's address. - **February 2025 VA incident**: Told a disabled veteran, "I'm going to turn you into DOGE." - **May 2025**: Canceled votes after credible threat against wife, children, and grandchildren. - **June 2025**: Mocked Democrats following the murders of Melissa Hortman and her husband and the shootings of two MN state legislators. Wisconsin Examiner called this "a danger sign." - **Pattern**: documented tirades against fellow members and Senate pages, threats against a librarian over a children's book. **Trump endorsement 2025-04-28**: "[[America First]] Warrior," "Complete and Total Endorsement." **Q1 2026**: $1.3M raised, **$3.8M COH**. Unopposed in GOP primary. ## Democratic primary — August 11, 2026 Three candidates; **Rebecca Cooke** is the overwhelming front-runner. **Rebecca Cooke** — 36-year-old nonprofit owner, former waitress, Eau Claire native. Running third time (2022 primary, 2024 nominee, 2026). - **Q1 2026: $2.4M raised, $4.4M+ COH** — outraised the incumbent by ~$1.1M - **$6.5M raised cycle-to-date** - March 2026 single largest contribution: $633K from House Victory Project - **Endorsements**: Pete Buttigieg, Sens. [[Tammy Baldwin]] and [[Bernie Sanders]], Sen. [[Elissa Slotkin]], 16 [[Members of Congress Hub]], State Sen. Brad Pfaff (2022 nominee), labor unions, Democratic organizations - **DCCC Red to Blue** program (February 2026) - Internal polling showed Cooke at **65%** in the three-way D primary — a 43-point lead **Emily Berge** — Eau Claire City Council President, mental health counselor, small business owner. Q1: ~$177K raised. **Rodney Rave** — Union operating engineer, former Ho-Chunk Nation legislator. Limited public fundraising footprint. **Brad Pfaff** (2022 nominee) is **NOT running 2026**; continues in WI State Senate (32nd district) and endorsed Cooke. ## Republican primary — August 11, 2026 Van Orden unopposed. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report**: **Toss Up** (moved from Lean R in **December 2025**, citing Cooke's fundraising and Wisconsin 2025 state Supreme Court Democratic momentum) - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: Toss Up - **Inside Elections**: TBD - **Cook PVI 2025**: **R+3** (200th most Republican district) - **Polymarket**: No WI-03-specific market; 2026 House control markets favor D's at ~85% ## Key dates - **2026-08-11** — WI primary (both parties) - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Cash on Hand | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Van Orden (R) | $1.3M | $3.8M | Trump-endorsed 4/28/25; unopposed primary | | **Cooke (D)** | **$2.4M** | **$4.4M+** | $633K House Victory Project; 3rd run; DCCC Red to Blue | | Berge (D) | $177K | TBD | Eau Claire City Council | | Rave (D) | TBD | TBD | Union operating engineer; Ho-Chunk | **Cooke outraised Van Orden by ~$1.1M in Q1 — plus larger COH.** Another data point in the Q1-2026 challenger-over-incumbent pattern (IA-01, IA-03, AZ-06, OH-01, VA-02, WI-03). ## Intel notes - **Van Orden's personal-brand drag is the race**: When the R presidential candidate wins your district by 7 and you win by under 3, you don't have a normal incumbency advantage — you have an anti-advantage. Trump's endorsement may firm up base turnout but does nothing about the 4-point moderate/ticket-splitter deficit Van Orden carries. - **The controversy accumulation is now a campaign asset for Cooke**. Each new Van Orden incident (DOGE comment to veteran, assassination mockery, RNC arrest) provides content for general-election ads. Cooke's campaign has started leaning into the frame — "Van Orden is in big trouble." NRCC is already preemptively attacking Cooke as "a paid political operative" hiding "DC insider ties," suggesting internal GOP polling sees the controversy angle as working. - **The 2025 WI State Supreme Court result was the justification for Cook's rating shift**: Chris Taylor beat Maria Lazar by ~20 points in April 2025 — a structural signal of D grassroots organizing and turnout capacity that Cook explicitly cited when moving WI-03 to Toss Up. - **Cooke's 3rd run is the opposite of the NY-19 Molinaro-exit dynamic**: here the D **stays in** for a third attempt with massively more money each cycle. The learning-curve gains (name ID, donor list, party relationships) compound across three cycles. - **The 8/11 primary is effectively uncontested** — Cooke at 65% in polling, dwarfing Berge ($177K) and Rave. The real race starts the day after the primary with a full 12-week general-election sprint. - **PVI R+3 ceiling on Cooke**: the structural lean still tilts R. Cooke has to out-organize and out-money a still-favored incumbent in a partisan climate where Trump carries the district by 7 when on the ballot. ## Content leads - *The Van Orden Gap*: the numerical anatomy of running 4 points behind your own president in the same election - *Third-Time Challengers*: Cooke 2026 vs. the rematch-retirement pattern (Molinaro NY-19, Engel AZ-06, Herrell NM-02) - *The Controversy Accumulation Playbook*: turning a multi-year pattern of incidents into a general-election attack track - *The 2025 WI State Supreme Court Signal*: how a state judicial race re-rated a congressional district ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $443,547.99 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$443,547.99** in this district on **4 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Derrick Van Orden]] | **$443,547.99** | 4 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on its receipt date and was first captured on 2026-10-10.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed, after that day's first count had been taken. The document's aggregate column is not a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Derrick Van Orden]] — incumbent (stub) - TBD: [[Rebecca Cooke]] — D challenger (3rd run) - [[Donald Trump]] — endorsed Van Orden 2025-04-28 - TBD: [[Brad Pfaff]] — 2022 D nominee; Cooke endorser - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub ## Sources - [Cook Political Report — WI-03](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485561) - [Cook — WI-03 moves Lean R → Toss Up](https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/wisconsin-house/wisconsins-3rd-district-moves-lean-republican-toss) - [Ballotpedia — WI-03 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [NRCC — Trump endorses Van Orden (2025-04-28)](https://www.nrcc.org/2025/04/28/president-trump-endorses-representative-derrick-van-orden-for-re-election/) - [The Badger Project — Van Orden ran behind Trump](https://thebadgerproject.org/2024/12/16/van-orden-ran-well-behind-trump-can-he-hold-his-western-wis-district-in-2026/) - [Wisconsin Examiner — Van Orden assassination mockery (2025-06-19)](https://wisconsinexaminer.com/2025/06/19/van-ordens-assassination-mockery-is-a-danger-sign/) - [CodePink / Common Dreams — Jaghama arrest fallout](https://www.commondreams.org/news/derrick-van-orden) - [WKOW — "turn you into DOGE" veteran incident](https://www.wkow.com/news/he-bullied-me-congressman-derrick-van-orden-threatens-to-report-veteran-former-va-employee-to/) - [NOTUS — Cooke $2.4M Q1 haul](https://www.notus.org/money/rebecca-cooke-derrick-van-orden-fundraising-2026) - [WisPolitics — Cooke outraises Van Orden by $1.1M](https://www.wispolitics.com/2026/dc-wrap-cooke-outraises-van-orden-by-nearly-1-1-million-in-first-quarter/) - [Urban Milwaukee — Cooke cash edge](https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2026/04/17/cooke-builds-cash-edge-on-van-orden-as-democrats-target-gop-house-majority/) - [The Badger Project — Cooke top donors](https://thebadgerproject.org/2026/03/18/max-donors-so-far-to-rebecca-cooke-dem-challenger-in-western-wisconsin/) - [Ballotpedia — Rebecca Cooke](https://ballotpedia.org/Rebecca_Cooke) - [Ballotpedia — Emily Berge](https://ballotpedia.org/Emily_Berge) - [Cook PVI 2025 district map](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list)