# TX-23 — 2026 U.S. House Race (Tier 2) > [!info] Tier 2 light file > Likely-rated seat — condensed tracking page. Promote to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. Sprawling West Texas border seat — the state's traditional swing district — now a **scandal-driven open seat** after Republican **Tony Gonzales dropped out** following the March 2026 primary amid a staffer-affair/death controversy. On the 2025 Texas map the district leans ~Trump+15; the Democratic candidate (Padilla Stout) has out-raised the GOP field ~4:1, but Cook rates it **Likely Republican**. **Ratings:** Cook **Likely Republican** (open; 2025 TX map). ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[TX-15-2026]], [[TX-35-2026]] — other 2025-map Texas seats