# TX-15 — 2026 U.S. House Race **General election: [[Monica De La Cruz]] (R, incumbent) vs. [[Bobby Pulido]] (D). Cook: Toss Up (moved from Lean R on Sept 25, 2026).** Rio Grande Valley seat held by Republican **[[Monica De La Cruz]]**, the emblem of the GOP's RGV breakthrough. Texas's 2025 mid-decade gerrymander (used for 2026 after the Supreme Court allowed it in December 2025) was drawn to keep the seat red at roughly **Trump+18** — which is what makes a Toss Up rating here notable. A seat drawn to be safe is now one of the Republican-held Toss Ups. ## Candidates - **[[Monica De La Cruz]]** (R) — incumbent since 2023; renominated March 3, 2026. - **[[Bobby Pulido]]** (D) — Tejano music star; won the March 3 Democratic primary with about **68%** over Ada Cuellar, avoiding a runoff. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report: Toss Up** — moved from Lean R on Sept 25, 2026, alongside FL-22 and NC-11. (This page had carried Likely R since June; the intermediate move to Lean R was not recorded here.) > [!info] Promoted from Tier 2, 2026-09-28 > This was a condensed Likely-R tracking page. The promotion trigger (a forecaster move to Toss Up / Lean) has been met. Money, polling and the redistricting math are the next things to add. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $337,569.94 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$337,569.94** in this district on **8 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Monica De La Cruz]] | **$337,569.94** | 8 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. Eight lines ties the highest line count of any single position on the notice, alongside HMP's largest Florida position. 🔴 **This notice posted late on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[TX-Sen-2026]] — Paxton vs. Talarico, also Toss Up - [[TX-23-2026]], [[TX-35-2026]] — other 2025-map Texas seats