# PA-10 — 2026 U.S. House Race ## PRIMARY RESULT — Stelson wins, sets up Perry rematch (May 19, 2026) **[[Janelle Stelson]]** (D) won the Democratic primary roughly **69%–31%** over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas in a five-way field, earning a rematch with Republican incumbent **[[Scott Perry]]** on **November 3, 2026**. She lost to Perry by ~5,100 votes in 2024 and returns far stronger — the cycle's top Pennsylvania congressional fundraiser, endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro, on the DCCC "Red to Blue" list. **Key takeaway:** A near-miss 2024 challenger with universal name ID (former WGAL anchor) and a cash advantage, against one of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the country. The 69–31 rout over a credible progressive validated the moderate-electability theory in an R+3 seat and signaled a unified party. ## Snapshot South-central Pennsylvania (the midstate): all of Dauphin County (Harrisburg) plus parts of Cumberland and York (including the city of York). Cook PVI **R+3**, with a Republican registration edge of ~5.5 points. **[[Scott Perry]]** (R), former House Freedom Caucus chair, held the seat 50.6–49.4 in 2024 — among the closest GOP holds in the country. **[[Janelle Stelson]]** returns for a rematch. All major forecasters rate Toss Up; Perry tops Pennsylvania vulnerability rankings. ## Incumbent **[[Scott Perry]]** (R). Multi-term incumbent and former Freedom Caucus chairman; a central figure in post-2020 election-overturn efforts (DOJ-pressure campaign, "fake electors" scrutiny, FBI seizure of his phone). The Jan. 6 / election-subversion record is the throughline attack and the reason both parties treat him as top-tier vulnerable. Trump-endorsed for re-election. ## Democratic nominee **[[Janelle Stelson]]** (D) — former longtime WGAL-TV news anchor with high name ID across the Harrisburg/York market; a moderate who re-registered from Republican before her 2024 run. Won the May 19 primary ~69–31. Endorsed by Gov. Josh Shapiro; on the DCCC "Red to Blue" list. ## Republican primary **[[Scott Perry]]** won renomination; Trump endorsed him in the early-cycle Pennsylvania endorsement wave. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | [[Cook Political Report]] | Toss Up | — | Current | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss Up | — | Current | | Inside Elections | Toss Up | — | Competitive tier (label unconfirmed) | **Context**: One of three Pennsylvania Toss Ups (with PA-07 and PA-08). District presidential lean is R-leaning but the seat has stayed within ~1–2 points at the House level for two cycles. ## Key dates - **May 19, 2026** — PA primary (D & R) — completed - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money **Q1 2026 (entering April):** | Candidate | Q1 Raised | COH | |---|---|---| | Janelle Stelson (D) | ~$1.47M | ~$3.17M | | Scott Perry (R) | ~$805K | ~$2.30M | Stelson outraised every Pennsylvania congressional candidate for a third straight quarter and holds a ~$880K cash advantage. A DCCC-released (internal) poll showed her +6 "out of the gate." ## Intel notes - **Rematch with a fundraising juggernaut.** A sub-1.5-point 2024 loss plus the cycle's top PA fundraising haul makes Stelson's second run materially stronger than her first. - **Perry's Jan. 6 baggage is the campaign.** His election-subversion profile is precisely why he's a perennial top target despite the district's GOP lean. - **Primary rout signals unity.** 69–31 over a credible progressive (Justin Douglas) suggests a consolidated Democratic coalition behind the moderate-electability case. - **Triple-Toss-Up Pennsylvania.** Expect saturation outside spending; PA-07/08/10 together could decide the chamber. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $344,729.00 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$344,729.00** in this district on **3 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Scott Perry]] | **$344,729.00** | 3 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. 🔴 **This notice was a late filing on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not used here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Scott Perry]] — incumbent - [[Janelle Stelson]] — Democratic nominee - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview - [[PA-07-2026]], [[PA-08-2026]] — the other two PA toss-ups ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — PA-10 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania's_10th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Cook Political Report — PA-10](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483956) - [Pennsylvania Capital-Star — Stelson wins PA-10 primary](https://penncapital-star.com/election-2026/janelle-stelson-will-face-rep-scott-perry-again-after-victory-in-pa-10-democratic-primary/) - [City & State PA — Stelson works toward rematch](https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/05/janelle-stelson-works-toward-november-rematch-scott-perry/413531/) - [PoliticsPA — Perry tops vulnerability rankings](https://www.politicspa.com/perry-tops-pennsylvania-congressional-vulnerability-rankings/146167/) - [Yahoo/Penn Capital-Star — Shapiro endorses Stelson](https://www.yahoo.com/news/governor-shapiro-endorses-janelle-stelson-154352810.html) - [DCCC — Stelson +6 poll](https://dccc.org/%F0%9F%9A%A8-new-poll-janelle-stelson-opens-up-6-point-lead-over-scott-perry-out-of-the-gate/)