# PA-07 — 2026 U.S. House Race ## PRIMARY RESULT — Brooks wins (May 19, 2026) **Bob Brooks 41.4% — Ryan Crosswell ~30% — Obando-Derstine and McClure splitting the remainder.** The Shapiro + Sanders + IAFF labor coalition prevailed over the institutional-D (Wild/EMILYs List) lane and the Trump-prosecutor fundraising lane. Brooks is now the Democratic nominee for the general election against **[[Ryan Mackenzie]]** (R-inc.) on **November 3, 2026**. This is now the marquee suburban-swing bellwether for the cycle: a labor-union-backed nominee in a working-class swing district with high union density (Lehigh Valley firefighters, building trades), against a freshman Republican with net –14 approval. All three forecasters rate Toss Up; Polymarket prices 76.5% D. **Key takeaway:** Money ≠ persuasion in a four-way primary with a labor-union front-runner. Crosswell raised the most money (~$1.1M cycle, $715K COH) but lost the votes. The Shapiro + Sanders + Buttigieg + IAFF endorsement cluster converted; the EMILYs List / BOLD PAC / Latino Victory institutional stack (behind Obando-Derstine) did not. ## Snapshot The Lehigh Valley (Allentown–Bethlehem–Easton; all of Carbon, Lehigh, Northampton + part of Monroe) is the 4th most vulnerable seat nationally per Roll Call's April 2026 ranking. Freshman **Ryan Mackenzie** (R) won by **0.4 points** (~4,000 votes) over three-term incumbent Susan Wild in 2024. Wild is not running — she endorsed **Carol Obando-Derstine** — but the D primary has four active candidates led in polling by firefighters-union president **Bob Brooks**, who carries endorsements from Gov. [[Josh Shapiro]], Sen. [[Bernie Sanders]], and Rep. Chris Deluzio. Former federal prosecutor **Ryan Crosswell** (who resigned from DOJ in protest over a Trump-aligned corruption case) leads Q1 cash on hand among Democrats. Mackenzie is unopposed in the R primary but is **deeply underwater** — 27% job approval, 41% disapproval, net –14 in March 2026 polling. All three forecasters rate the race Toss Up; Polymarket prices it **76.5% Democratic**. The PA primary is **May 19, 2026** — the first primary of the cycle for a competitive House race. ## Incumbent **Ryan Mackenzie** (R). Born 1982, Allentown; ninth-generation Lehigh Valley. NYU BS Finance & International Business; Harvard MBA. Prior career: U.S. Department of Labor (Office of Secretary), PA Department of Labor & Industry Policy Director. Pennsylvania House 2012–2024 (Labor & Industry Committee R chair). Won 2024 open-ish-contest against three-term incumbent Susan Wild 50.4–49.6. Sworn in January 2025. Roll Call's "at-the-races" franchise ranks him the **4th most vulnerable incumbent** in the House as of April 23, 2026. ## Democratic primary Primary: **May 19, 2026** — **3 days out**. Polymarket primary odds: **Brooks 61%, Crosswell ~35%**. Obando-Derstine and McClure trail. - **Bob Brooks** — President, Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association; 20-year firefighter (Bethlehem PD). Represents 8,000+ PA firefighters. Q1 2026: $435K raised / $545K COH. **Endorsements stack**: Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA), Pete Buttigieg, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, Working Families Party, SEIU PA State Council, IAFF, Allentown Mayor Matt Tuerk, Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. Change Research primary poll: 30% (leading after bio). The Shapiro-plus-Sanders coalition is the most striking single-candidate endorsement profile in any 2026 House primary. - **Ryan Crosswell** — 10-year federal prosecutor (DOJ Public Integrity Section). USMC veteran. **Resigned February 2026** after being pressured to drop a corruption case against a Trump-aligned politician. Q1 2026: **$485K raised (highest D) / $715K COH (highest D)**. Cycle-to-date ~$1.1M+. Endorsement: VoteVets. Polymarket ~35%. Leading in cash but trailing in polling. - **Carol Obando-Derstine** — Colombian immigrant (age 3); Lehigh BS, Penn State MS, Lehigh MS Energy Systems Engineering. 9 years at PPL Electric Utilities; Regional Manager for former Sen. Bob Casey; Wolf-era Advisory Commission on Latino Affairs. Nonprofit ED for SkillsUSA and Children's Coalition. **Recruited by Susan Wild**, Wild's formal endorsement. Endorsements: EMILYs List, Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC, Latino Victory Fund, PODER PAC, 314 Action, J Street PAC, WomenCount, Reps. Escobar, Sánchez, Barragán, Salinas. Q1 2026: $110K raised / $130K COH; cycle total $545K (with $32.5K self-loan). Change Research: 17% (tied for 3rd). Strong elite D coalition; has not converted in polling. - **Lamont McClure** — Northampton County Executive since 2018; prior Northampton County Council 2006–2013. Age 53. Q1 2026: $20K raised / $285K COH. Cycle total ~$500K including $200K self-loan. Endorsement: Conservation Voters of PA. Change Research: 17% (tied 3rd). ## Republican primary **Ryan Mackenzie** is unopposed. No primary challenger filed as of April 23, 2026. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | [[Cook Political Report]] | Toss Up | — | Current | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss Up | — | Current | | Inside Elections | Toss Up | — | Current | | Polymarket (general) | 76.5% D | — | As of April 23, 2026 | | Roll Call Vulnerability | 4th most vulnerable | — | April 23, 2026 | **Context**: All three major forecasters call Toss Up, but Polymarket pricing and Mackenzie's -14 net favorability both suggest general-election conditions lean materially toward the D nominee once one emerges. District presidential history: Trump +3 (2016), Biden +0.5 (2020), Trump +3 (2024) — a true swing seat that has moved with national tides. ## Key dates - **May 19, 2026** — **PA primary (D & R)** — **3 DAYS AWAY** - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money **Q1 2026 FEC filings (as of April 15, 2026):** | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Q1 COH | Cycle Total | |---|---|---|---| | Ryan Mackenzie (R) | $905K | **$2.45M** | ~$2.5M | | Ryan Crosswell (D) | **$485K** | **$715K** | ~$1.1M+ | | Bob Brooks (D) | $435K | $545K | ~$1M | | Carol Obando-Derstine (D) | $110K | $130K | $545K (incl. $32.5K loan) | | Lamont McClure (D) | $20K | $285K | $500K (incl. $200K loan) | Aggregate PA-07 candidate spending exceeds $3.2M cycle-to-date. Mackenzie's $2.45M war chest is the highest in the race, but the D nominee will likely arrive in the general with DCCC and progressive-PAC reinforcement that the incumbent can't match dollar-for-dollar. **Mackenzie approval (March 2026)**: 27% approve / 41% disapprove / ~32% unsure. **Net –14**. Deeply underwater for a freshman incumbent. ## Intel notes - **Shapiro + Sanders + Deluzio for Brooks is the story**: A top-popularity Democratic governor (Shapiro), the national progressive-movement avatar (Sanders), and a well-liked in-state House member (Deluzio) all aligning on the same candidate is the clearest intra-party signal in any competitive 2026 D primary. This is why Brooks leads on Polymarket at 61% despite Crosswell's cash advantage. - **Crosswell's "Trump prosecutor" lane**: Resigned DOJ in February 2026 after being pressured to drop a corruption case — an unusually fresh, unusually concrete anti-Trump origin story for 2026. Has produced the fundraising numbers but not (yet) the poll movement; a late-cycle ad blitz off his cash-on-hand lead is the likeliest path to overtake Brooks. - **Obando-Derstine's underperformance is a major D Party story**: Wild's hand-picked successor carrying EMILYs List, BOLD PAC, Latino Victory Fund, 314 Action, and four sitting Latina House members — and still polling 17%. That's a data point about the limits of elite endorsement consolidation when a Shapiro + Sanders cluster lands on a different candidate. - **Mackenzie's -14 net favorability**: For a freshman incumbent, this is a near-fatal number. The general-election question isn't "does he lose" — it's "can he rebuild favorability in six months while running against a fresh D nominee with $700K+ on hand." - **The primary is the race for Democrats**: PA's closed primary means the D electorate is narrower than the general; Brooks' union + progressive alignment suits that electorate. The risk, per D strategists, is a Sanders-backed nominee being cast as too progressive for a swing district. Shapiro's co-endorsement is the key insulation. - **Bellwether for House control**: PA-07, CA-13, IA-01, MI-07 are the core four-seat bundle that national tacticians are watching to project overall majority outcomes. PA-07 is unique among them in having its primary three months earlier than the others — the May 19 result will set the tone for the entire cycle's narrative. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $1,442,090.98 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$1,442,090.98** in this district on **5 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Ryan Mackenzie]] | **$1,432,140.98** | 4 | | support | [[Bob Brooks]] | **$9,950.00** | 1 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. The $9,950.00 for [[Bob Brooks]] is **0.69%** of HMP's $1,442,090.98 in this district. The defence of the seat is almost entirely an attack on the incumbent. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on 2026-10-08 and added here on 2026-10-10.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Ryan Mackenzie]] — incumbent - [[Susan Wild]] — former incumbent, endorsing Obando-Derstine - [[2026 Midterms Hub]] — hub - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview - TBD: [[Bob Brooks]], [[Ryan Crosswell]], [[Carol Obando-Derstine]], [[Lamont McClure]] ## Content leads - **"The Shapiro-Sanders coalition"** — when a centrist governor and the country's most visible progressive agree on the same House candidate, what does that predict? - **"Prosecutor-to-politician"** — the 2026 cycle's crop of DOJ departures-turned-candidates (Crosswell + others); [[Liz Cheney]] comparisons and limits - **"May 19"** — the first-primary framing: what PA-07's outcome tells us about the rest of 2026 - **"-14"** — deep-dive on Mackenzie's favorability trajectory and the structural drag on freshman R incumbents in suburban-exurban swing seats ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — PA-07 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania's_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Ballotpedia — Ryan Mackenzie](https://ballotpedia.org/Ryan_Mackenzie) - [Ballotpedia — Bob Brooks (PA)](https://ballotpedia.org/Bob_Brooks_(Pennsylvania)) - [Ballotpedia — Ryan Crosswell](https://ballotpedia.org/Ryan_Crosswell) - [Ballotpedia — Carol Obando-Derstine](https://ballotpedia.org/Carol_Obando-Derstine) - [Cook Political Report — PA-07 2026](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483941) - [NBC News — PA-07 as path-forward bellwether](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/democratic-party-future-pennsylvania-battleground-house-primary-rcna235400) - [Pennsylvania Capital-Star — PA battleground preview](https://penncapital-star.com/election-2026/pennsylvania-expected-to-be-a-key-battleground-for-congress-in-2026/) - [Spotlight PA — Crosswell ex-DOJ profile](https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2025/10/former-doj-prosecutor-pennsylvania-congress-race-crosswell-federal-government/) - [Lehigh Valley News — Brooks launches](https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/elections/firefighter-union-boss-bob-brooks-jumps-into-lehigh-valley-congressional-race) - [Lehigh Valley News — McClure announces](https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/elections/fight-like-hell-northampton-county-executive-lamont-mcclure-to-run-for-congress) - [Philadelphia Inquirer — Obando-Derstine](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/democrat-carol-obando-derstine-7th-district-20250501.html) - [City & State PA — Brooks primary positioning](https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/pa-7-dem-primary-bob-brooks-going-pole-poll/412907/) - [City & State PA — Obando-Derstine makes case](https://www.cityandstatepa.com/politics/2026/04/none-these-candidates-have-experience-i-have-carol-obando-derstine-makes-her-case-pa-7/412843/) - [The Center Square — Q1 PA-07 fundraising](https://www.thecentersquare.com/pennsylvania/article_fc9f4289-6e5c-4e17-bc80-84cce162cc13.html) - [Politics PA — March 2026 PA polling](https://www.politicspa.com/new-polling-shows-trump-mackenzie-perry-underwater-in-keystone-state/145995/) - [Change Research — Brooks primary polling](https://changeresearch.com/bob-brooks-is-well-positioned-in-the-district/) - [Polymarket — PA-07 general election](https://polymarket.com/event/pa-07-house-election-winner/will-the-republican-party-win-the-pa-07-house-seat) - [Polymarket — PA-07 D primary](https://polymarket.com/event/pa-07-democratic-primary-winner) - [Roll Call — At the Races, April 23 2026](https://rollcall.com/2026/04/23/at-the-races-never-ending-redistricting/) - [FEC — Mackenzie For Congress (C00846501)](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00846501/)