# OH-01 (2026) — Greg Landsman vs. Eric Conroy (Trump-endorsed, post-redistricting) ## Snapshot Ohio's 1st Congressional District — Cincinnati / Hamilton County — has been **fundamentally redrawn** by Ohio's October 2025 mid-decade redistricting. Old lines: **Biden +6.5 / Harris-won / D+9 PVI**. New lines (effective 2026): **Trump +2.5** projected 2024 performance, Cook PVI D+3 composite. The redraw added deep-red Clinton County and western Hamilton exurbs, removed Democratic Cincinnati suburbs. Result: a ~**15-to-20-point shift against Democratic incumbent [[Greg Landsman]]**. Cook: Toss Up (April 7, 2026). Inside Elections: Toss Up. **Ohio primary completed 2026-05-05. Results: Landsman (D) and Conroy (R) both won as expected. General election matchup set.** The OH-01 redraw is the **single most consequential district-level effect** of the 2025–2026 mid-decade redistricting wave nationally — Ohio is the one state legally required to redistrict mid-decade (Article XIX); the bipartisan-supermajority Commission map was approved 2025-10-31. See [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]] for the full chronology. Trump endorsed retired CIA case officer **Eric Conroy** in the GOP primary on 2026-04-15; Speaker Johnson and full House leadership endorsed Conroy 2026-04-14. **Conroy won the R primary May 5** with ~65% (1,993 votes to Holly Adams's 750 and Rosemary Oglesby-Henry's 308). Landsman won the D primary easily (853 to Damon Lynch IV's 250). ## Incumbent — Greg Landsman (D) Sophomore Democrat. Former Cincinnati City Council member (2018–2022). **2024 reelection**: 55% vs. Orlando Sonza (R) 45% — a **+10 point margin** on old lines, running ~3.5 points ahead of Harris (+6.5). That overperformance pattern is the arithmetic core of his 2026 survival case — on new lines (Trump +2.5), he needs to overperform by 2.5+ points just to tie. Facing a contested Democratic primary (see below) — unusual for Landsman. No public indication of Senate or Governor interest. Q1 2026 **record $1.6M raised / $2.8M cash on hand**. Controversial donor geography: **85.1% out-of-state donors**, including [[Nancy Pelosi]], being used by NRCC as attack line. ## Democratic primary — May 5, 2026 - **Greg Landsman** (incumbent) - **Damon Lynch IV** — Community organizer, nonprofit executive (Black-therapist network for Black communities); son and grandson of Cincinnati civil-rights pastors/activists; Central State University (Political Science). East Price Hill base. Platform: economic development, mental health access, education. Describes campaign as fighting the "War in Ohio." No public primary polling found. Landsman heavily favored given cash advantage and incumbent ID. Lynch represents organized progressive/racial-justice dissent. Primary on same day as R primary. ## Republican primary — May 5, 2026 **Trump-endorsed: Eric Conroy** — [[Air Force]] Academy graduate, active-duty Air Force veteran, **CIA case officer** with overseas national-security background. Elder High School grad (West Side Cincinnati native). **Endorsement cascade (2026-04-14 to 15):** - 2026-04-15: President Trump "Complete and Total Endorsement" - 2026-04-14: Speaker [[Mike Johnson]], Majority Leader Scalise, Whip Emmer, Conference Chair McClain **Other R primary candidates:** - **Holly Adams** — Former businesswoman (30-year sales career), BGSU Business & Marketing; Hamilton area - **Steven Erbeck** — Dentist (~6% on Polymarket) - **Rosemary Oglesby-Henry** — Nonprofit CEO **Polymarket R primary**: Conroy ~90%, Erbeck 6%, others trace. Conroy "outraised every primary opponent combined" per reporting — specific COH figures pending FEC extraction. ## Ratings - **[[Cook Political Report]]**: **Lean D** per Cook's Sept 25, 2026 House ratings (move date not re-established). Was Toss Up April 7, 2026; effectively Likely D / Safe D pre-redistricting - **Inside Elections**: Toss Up - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: Rating TBD, commentary suggests competitive / Lean R flavor - **Cook PVI 2025 (new district)**: D+3 composite — but 2024 presidential performance on new lines projects **Trump +2.5** - **Polymarket R primary**: Conroy ~90% ## Key dates - **2026-05-05** — Ohio primaries (BOTH parties) **[12 days out]** - **2026-06-15** — Approximate Q2 FEC filing deadline - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Q1 Cash on Hand | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Landsman (D) | **$1.6M** | $2.8M | Record quarter; 85.1% out-of-state (Pelosi network); 9,000+ donors; 80% sub-$100 | | Conroy (R) | "Outraised every GOP primary opponent combined" | TBD — verify | Trump endorsement boosts primary; cash-position disclosures pending | | Lynch (D) | TBD | TBD | Minimal expected; progressive challenger | | Erbeck / Adams / Oglesby-Henry (R) | Trace | Trace | Far behind Conroy | ## Intel notes - **The Redistricting Shock**: This is the single most consequential rating change of the 2026 House cycle. Ohio's October 2025 mid-decade redraw (passed 12-0 by the Ohio Redistricting Commission, triggered by the 2018 constitutional amendment requirement) took a Biden +6.5 seat and turned it into a Trump +2.5 seat. Democrats and Sabato's Crystal Ball framed Ohio's new map overall as "a better map than expected" — but OH-01 specifically moved against them. - **Landsman's overperformance math**: He beat the Harris district-level margin by ~3.5 points in 2024. On new lines (Trump +2.5), replicating that overperformance gets him to roughly a tied race. Anything less and he loses. - **85% out-of-state fundraising**: $1.6M Q1 record haul, but 85.1% from out-of-state donors including Pelosi. NRCC framing (2026-04-23): "Liberal Landsman Rakes in Cash from Pelosi's California Orbit." Attack writes itself. - **Conroy profile designed for the redraw**: Air Force Academy + CIA case officer + Elder High West Side — a national-security biography that fits the new Clinton County + exurban Hamilton territory much better than Sonza's 2024 profile did. - **Primary timing urgency (2026-05-05)**: The first competitive Tier 1 primary of the cycle. Outcomes will be the first data point on the 2026 midterm environment — turnout, enthusiasm, margins. Watch for baseline effects on subsequent primary-state turnout models. - **Lynch progressive challenge**: Low probability of defeating Landsman but signals organized left-wing discontent over Landsman's bipartisan posture. If Lynch pulls 30%+, it's a warning sign for the general. - **No public polling** for either primary or general as of 2026-04-23 — analyst assessments driven by redistricting math + endorsements + Q1 money rather than hard poll data. ## Content leads - *The OH-01 Redistricting Shock*: how one map redraw wiped out a 10-point Democratic cushion; state-commission mechanics that produced it - *Landsman's Out-of-State Money Problem*: 85% out-of-state donations and the NRCC Pelosi framing as a midterm attack template - *Eric Conroy — the CIA Candidate*: the national-security-backgrounded House recruit as a 2026 GOP pattern - *May 5 Primary as Leading Indicator*: what the first-in-cycle Tier 1 primary tells us about 2026 enthusiasm ## Related KB entities - [[Greg Landsman]] — incumbent - [[Donald Trump]] — endorser of Conroy - TBD: [[Eric Conroy]], [[Damon Lynch IV]] — primary candidates - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub - TBD: Ohio Redistricting Commission (Oct 2025 redraw — cross-link to redistricting entries) ## Sources - [Cook Political Report — OH-01](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483781) - [Inside Elections — New Ohio Map analysis](https://insideelections.com/news/article/a-detailed-analysis-of-ohios-new-congressional-map) - [Ballotpedia — OH-01 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio's_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Ballotpedia — Ohio redistricting 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Ohio_ahead_of_the_2026_elections) - [Daily Signal — Trump endorses Conroy (2026-04-16)](https://www.dailysignal.com/2026/04/16/trump-makes-endorsement-in-key-house-race/) - [Ohio News — Landsman 85% out-of-state fundraising](https://www.ohio.news/stories/rep-greg-landsman-received-85-1-of-campaign-donations-from-out-of-state-donors-in-2026-including-former-house-speaker-pelosi/) - [NRCC — Landsman Pelosi framing (2026-04-23)](https://nrcc.org/2026/04/23/liberal-landsman-rakes-in-cash-from-pelosis-california-orbit/) - [Sabato's Crystal Ball — Ohio map rating](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rating-the-new-ohio-house-map-democrats-get-a-better-map-than-expected/) - [Polymarket — OH-01 R primary](https://polymarket.com/event/oh-01-republican-primary-winner) - [WVXU — Lynch vs. Landsman primary candidate profiles](https://www.wvxu.org/show/cincinnati-edition/2026-04-07/democratic-primary-ohio-1-damon-lynch-iv-greg-landsman) - [Ohio Redistricting Commission Oct 30, 2025 vote](https://www.statenews.org/government-politics/2025-10-30/dems-on-ohio-redistricting-commission-likely-to-agree-to-gop-congressional-map)