# NY-19 (2026) — Josh Riley vs. Oberacker (or Portelli, pending ballot) > [!success] Primary result — June 23, 2026 > **Josh Riley (D)** unopposed. **Peter Oberacker (R)** defeated Alexander Portelli decisively — AP at 98% counted had it **77.5% to 22.0%**; county unofficial returns had 79.2% to 20.8%. > November: **Riley vs. Oberacker**. Cook moved NY-19 to **Likely Democratic** as of September 11, 2026 — off the Lean D this page recorded. > > The Portelli ballot-access fight this page was tracking in April resolved in the most anticlimactic way available: he made the ballot and lost by roughly 56 points. ## Snapshot New York's 19th Congressional District — Binghamton, Ithaca, the Catskills, parts of the Hudson Valley. Freshman Democrat [[Josh Riley]] flipped the seat in 2024 by ~2 points over then-Rep. [[Marc Molinaro]] in a rematch (Molinaro had beaten Riley by 4,500 votes in 2022). Trump endorsed **NY State Senator Peter Oberacker** on 2026-02-04 via [[Truth Social]], and Speaker [[Mike Johnson]] followed the same day; Oberacker was added to the NRCC's MAGA Majority Program on 2026-03-17. Outsider challenger **Alexander Portelli** (Marine veteran, farmer) faced a **signature-fraud ballot-access challenge** in the spring — objector Olivia Clemente (former NY Assembly R Campaign Committee ops director) challenged 1,120 of his 1,609 petition signatures and NYSBOE staff invalidated 387 — but he survived it, made the June 23 ballot, and lost to Oberacker by roughly 56 points. **Cook: Likely D (Sept 11, 2026). Sabato: Likely D. Inside Elections: Leans D. PVI: D+1.** ## Incumbent — Josh Riley (D) Attorney; former NY State Senate general counsel. Ran first in 2022 (lost to Molinaro by ~4,500 votes); ran again 2024 and **won 48.99%–47.99% (~3,678-vote margin)** in the rematch. Sworn in to the 118th Congress January 2025. Unopposed in the June 23 Democratic primary. Launched 2026 reelection with strong fundraising; raised **$3.129M through year-end 2025** per WSKG. NYSUT (NY State United Teachers) endorsed Riley in April 2026. Q1 2026 FEC details still propagating as of 2026-04-23. ## Democratic primary — June 23, 2026 Riley unopposed. ## Republican primary — June 23, 2026 **Peter Oberacker (Trump- and Speaker-endorsed front-runner)** - NY State Senator. Founder, FormTech Solutions. - **Trump endorsement 2026-02-04** via Truth Social: called Oberacker "incredible," attacked Riley as a "Radical Left Extremist." - **Speaker Mike Johnson** endorsed same day. - **NRCC MAGA Majority Program** — added in first round of additions 2026-03-17. **Alexander Portelli (outsider, ballot status in question)** - 36-year-old Cherry Valley resident, USMC veteran, farmer, small business owner. - Running as anti-establishment insurgent against Oberacker. - **Signature fraud challenge**: Objector Olivia Clemente filed on 2026-04-14 alleging Portelli claimed to witness multiple petitions on the same day in geographically distant locations — calling this "fraud on the part of the candidate." NYSBOE staff has invalidated **387 signatures** so far; Portelli needs to clear 1,250 to appear on the June 23 ballot. - Portelli denies the allegations. **Final NYSBOE certification deadline: 2026-04-29.** - Portelli (April 12 video): "people trying to stop this movement are not Democrats. It's my own party." **Marc Molinaro — NOT running 2026.** After losing to Riley, Molinaro served briefly as Federal Transit Administrator (February 2026) and then **announced a run for NY State Assembly District 102** on 2026-02-23/27. Takes the third-time-rematch option off the board. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report**: Lean Democratic (affirmed 2026-04-07 in Cook's NY ratings update — unchanged from January) - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: Leans Democratic - **Inside Elections**: Leans Democratic - **Cook PVI 2025**: **D+1** — performed ~1 point more Democratic than the national average in 2020/2024 - **Polymarket**: No NY-19-specific market detected as of 2026-04-23 ## Key dates - **2026-04-29** — NYSBOE final ballot certification deadline (resolves Portelli status) - **2026-06-13 to 2026-06-21** — NY early voting window - **2026-06-23** — NY primary (both parties) - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Raised (through) | Cash on Hand | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Riley (D) | $3.129M (through 2025) | TBD | Q1 2026 FEC filing not yet propagated | | Oberacker (R) | TBD | TBD | Trump-endorsed 2/4; Q1 filing TBD | | Portelli (R) | TBD | TBD | Ballot access in question | FEC filings were due 2026-04-15; detailed numbers expected to propagate to OpenSecrets / Ballotpedia in the days following the 2026-04-29 NYSBOE decision. ## Intel notes - **The Portelli signature crisis is the immediate GOP primary story.** An objector with former NY Republican Assembly Campaign Committee ops-director credentials is doing the establishment's work for it: if Portelli falls off the ballot by April 29, Oberacker walks to the June 23 primary unopposed with Trump, Speaker Johnson, and NRCC money behind him. If Portelli survives, the primary becomes a Trump-loyalist vs. MAGA-insurgent test in Southern Tier rural counties. - **Trump's early investment.** The 2026-02-04 endorsement is unusually early — three full months before the primary — and paired with the Speaker's same-day stamp. Signals NRCC thinks this seat is competitive enough to warrant coordinated primary-clearing activity. - **Riley's 2024 margin is a structural vulnerability.** A 48.99%/47.99% win in an on-presidential-year D turnout environment means any R-environment wave reopens the seat. His $3.1M through 2025 is strong, but Oberacker will have NRCC backing. - **Riley unopposed in D primary** = zero primary cost, but also zero earned-media primary energy. Contrast with NY-17 (Lawler, also Harris-won, where the **D** primary is crowded and expensive). - **College-town geography.** Ithaca (Cornell, Ithaca College), Binghamton (Binghamton University) give the district a more educated electorate than the Southern Tier average. Riley's education-policy branding (NYSUT endorsement) slots into that. - **Three Harris-won R seats vs. one Harris-won D seat**: NY-17 (Lawler) is the mirror image — R defending in a Harris-carried district. NY-19 is a D defending in a near-EVEN district Trump narrowly carried at the presidential level in 2024. ## Content leads - *The Portelli Signature Crisis*: how state election infrastructure shapes primary outcomes before votes are cast - *Molinaro's Exit*: why the State Assembly seat was a better landing spot than a third House run — Trump-era rematch fatigue - *Riley's NYSUT Test*: can a single high-profile union endorsement crowd out crossover Republican attacks in a PVI D+1 district? - *The NY-17 / NY-19 Axis*: two Harris/Trump crossover districts in the same state, opposite party incumbents, adjacent primary dates ## Related KB entities - [[Josh Riley]] — incumbent (stub) - [[Donald Trump]] — endorsed Oberacker 2026-02-04 - TBD: [[Peter Oberacker]] — NY State Senator, Trump-endorsed GOP front-runner - TBD: [[Alexander Portelli]] — USMC-vet outsider candidate (ballot status TBD) - TBD: [[Marc Molinaro]] — 2022/2024 opponent, now running for NY Assembly 102 - [[NY-17-2026]] — the other NY district with Trump-leadership primary-clearing dynamics - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub ## Sources - [Cook Political Report — NY-19](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483666) - [Ballotpedia — NY-19 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/New_York's_19th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Ballotpedia — Peter Oberacker](https://ballotpedia.org/Peter_Oberacker) - [Ballotpedia — Alexander Portelli](https://ballotpedia.org/Alexander_Portelli) - [Ballotpedia — Josh Riley](https://ballotpedia.org/Josh_Riley) - [WBNG — Trump endorses Oberacker (2026-02-05)](https://www.wbng.com/2026/02/05/president-trump-endorses-peter-oberacker-ny-19-congressional-district/) - [NRCC — Oberacker MAGA Majority Program (2026-03-17)](https://www.nrcc.org/2026/03/17/nrcc-announces-peter-oberacker-to-first-round-of-additions-to-maga-majority-program/) - [All Otsego — Portelli signature challenge](https://www.allotsego.com/portellis-ny-19-candidacy-at-risk-after-boe-petition-review/) - [WBNG — Molinaro runs for NY Assembly 102 (2026-02-27)](https://www.wbng.com/2026/02/27/marc-molinaro-announces-run-for-new-yorks-102nd-assembly-district/) - [Spectrum Local News — Cook NY ratings unchanged (2026-04-07)](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/politics/2026/04/07/cook-political-report-n-y--house-2026-ratings-unchanged) - [NYSUT — 2026 endorsements (April 2026)](https://www.nysut.org/news/2026/april/media-release-2026-congressional-endorsements) - [WSKG — NY-19 primary preview (April 2026)](https://wskg.org/ny-19-primary-josh-riley-touts-policy-experience-southern-tier-roots/) - [NY Board of Elections — Political calendars](https://elections.ny.gov/political-calendars) - [Cook PVI 2025 district map](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list)