# NM-02 (2026) — Gabe Vasquez vs. Greg Cunningham (Trump-endorsed) > [!success] Primary result — June 2, 2026 > **Gabe Vasquez (D)** unopposed — 47,123 votes, 100%. **Greg Cunningham (R) 84.5%** (26,836) over Jose Orozco 15.5% (4,910), who had withdrawn in April but missed the ballot-removal deadline. > November: **Vasquez vs. Cunningham**. Cook moved NM-02 from Toss Up to **Lean Democratic** as of its September 11, 2026 sheet — a rating shift since this page was last written. ## Snapshot New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District — southern NM including Las Cruces, border counties, and parts of Albuquerque's South Valley. Democrat [[Gabe Vasquez]] won a **2-seat seesaw** (Herrell 2020, Vasquez 2022 by 1,350 votes, Vasquez 2024 by ~10,000) in a border district that Trump flipped in 2024 despite Vasquez's 4-point reelection. The Republican field cleared in April 2026 around retired APD detective **[[Greg Cunningham]]**, who received Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" 2026-04-15 plus a full House GOP leadership endorsement cascade, and who took 84.5% on June 2. Former Rep. Yvette Herrell (who Vasquez defeated twice) is **NOT running** — now serving as USDA Assistant Secretary. **Cook: Lean D** as of September 11, 2026 — moved off Toss Up over the summer. ## Incumbent — Gabe Vasquez (D) Sophomore Democrat. Former Las Cruces City Councilor. Son of Mexican immigrants. Narrowly unseated Yvette Herrell in 2022 by 1,350 votes; defeated her rematch bid in 2024 by 52%–48% (~10,000 votes, 3.9 pp). Announced 2026 reelection campaign 2025-09-23, emphasizing bipartisan record. **Unopposed — or near-unopposed — in the Democratic primary.** ## Democratic primary — June 2, 2026 Vasquez effectively unopposed; no credible primary challenger identified. ## Republican primary — June 2, 2026 **Trump-endorsed candidate**: **Greg Cunningham** — Marine Corps veteran, retired Albuquerque Police Department detective, two-time state legislative candidate. **Endorsement cascade** (week of 2026-04-14): - 2026-04-15: President Trump "Complete and Total Endorsement" (via NRCC announcement) - 2026-04-14: Speaker [[Mike Johnson]], Majority Leader Scalise, Whip Emmer, Conference Chair McClain - Prior: Former Rep. [[Yvette Herrell]] endorsed Cunningham instead of running herself **Primary ballot** (Cunningham dominant): - **Greg Cunningham** — Trump-endorsed frontrunner - **Jose Orozco** — Former DEA contractor / Albuquerque Republican. **Withdrew 2026-04-08 endorsing Cunningham**, but missed the statutory deadline to remove his name — will still appear on the June 2 ballot. **Herrell's exit**: The 2020 one-term representative who Vasquez defeated twice was confirmed as **USDA Assistant Secretary for Congressional Relations on 2025-12-18**. Her decision clears the field and her endorsement of Cunningham caps the GOP consolidation. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report**: Toss Up (as of March 12, 2026; shifted from earlier Lean D, reflecting Trump's 2024 district carry) - **Cook PVI 2025**: TBD — verify - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: TBD - **Inside Elections**: TBD ## Key dates - **2026-05-05** — First day to request absentee ballot - **2026-05-30** — Last day for early voting - **2026-06-02** — NM semi-open primary (unaffiliated voters select which party ballot) - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Q1 Cash on Hand | |---|---|---| | Vasquez (D) | $783.7K | $1.9M | | Cunningham (R) | TBD | TBD | | Orozco (R — withdrawn) | TBD | TBD | - Vasquez fundraising: 78.1% from individual donors — strong small-dollar base - Cunningham Q1 figures not yet extracted from FEC search; his FEC candidate page is active (verify post-April 15 filings) ## Intel notes - **Trump-won-Vasquez-held seat**: NM-02 is one of 13 Democratic-held districts Trump won in 2024 — arithmetic that suggests Republican pickup potential, offset by Vasquez's proven ~4-point personal overperformance. - **The Herrell clearance**: The two-time loser to Vasquez taking an administration role and endorsing Cunningham instead of running a third time is the most consequential GOP move of the cycle in NM-02. It avoids the "Herrell fatigue" problem and gives the GOP a cleaner-slate candidate. - **Endorsement cascade velocity**: Trump + Speaker + Majority Leader + Whip + Conference Chair all endorsed within one week (2026-04-14 to 2026-04-15). This is unusual coordination and signals NM-02 as a top-tier national GOP target. - **Cunningham's profile fit**: Marine veteran + retired APD detective + Hispanic community presence (Albuquerque focus) — designed to compete with Vasquez's own Las Cruces/Mexican-American coalition. - **Orozco ballot artifact**: His name will appear on the June 2 ballot despite withdrawal — a procedural quirk that may confuse GOP-leaning voters and cost Cunningham some early primary votes (though Cunningham is still overwhelmingly favored). - **Border district framing**: Expect heavy Trump-administration immigration-enforcement messaging — district runs along the U.S.-Mexico border. Vasquez's bipartisan branding will be tested hardest on this issue. ## Content leads - *The Yvette Herrell Exit*: administration-job-over-third-campaign, pattern with other border-district R's - *NM-02 and the 13 Trump-Won Dem Seats*: the district-by-district math, which 13 are most competitive, which Democrats are best-positioned - *The April 2026 Trump Endorsement Cascade*: Cunningham, Conroy (OH-01), O'Donnell (NV-03), Miller-Meeks (IA-01 earlier) — timing pattern of Trump endorsements in House races ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $46,000.00 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$46,000.00** in this district on **1 Schedule E line** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Greg Cunningham]] | **$46,000.00** | 1 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. A single line, defending [[Gabe Vasquez]]. It is the smallest oppose position on the notice. 🔴 **This notice was a late filing on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not used here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Gabe Vasquez]] — incumbent - [[Donald Trump]] — endorser of Cunningham - [[Yvette Herrell]] — two-time Vasquez opponent, now USDA; Cunningham endorser - TBD: [[Greg Cunningham]] — Trump-endorsed R challenger - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub ## Sources - [Cook Political Report — NM-02](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483566) - [Ballotpedia — NM-02 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico's_2nd_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [NRCC — Trump endorses Cunningham (2026-04-14)](https://nrcc.org/2026/04/14/%F0%9F%9A%A8-president-trump-endorses-greg-cunningham-for-congress/) - [NM Political Report — Vasquez 2026 launch (2025-09-23)](https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2025/09/23/vasquez-launches-2026-re-election-campaign-emphasizes-bipartisan-record/) - [Albuquerque Journal — Orozco withdraws (2026-04-08)](https://www.abqjournal.com/news/republican-congressional-candidate-drops-out-of-race-but-will-still-appear-on-ballot/3021369) - [Pinon Post — Herrell endorses Cunningham](https://pinonpost.com/former-congresswoman-herrell-makes-major-endorsement-for-cd2-seat/) - [LegiStorm — Herrell USDA role confirmed 2025-12-18](https://legistorm.com/person/bio/192948/Stella_Yvette_Herrell.html) - [FEC — Vasquez Q1 2026 filing](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00789404/)