# NJ-07 — 2026 U.S. House Race ## PRIMARY RESULT — Bennett wins Democratic nod (June 2, 2026) **[[Rebecca Bennett]]** (D), a former Navy helicopter pilot, won a competitive four-way primary to challenge Republican incumbent **[[Tom Kean Jr.]]** on **November 3, 2026**. She was added to the DCCC "Red to Blue" program two days later. The defining backdrop: Kean has been **absent from Congress with an undisclosed illness since early March 2026**, missing 100+ votes — an absence that has nationalized the race and pushed forecasters toward the Democrats. **Key takeaway:** A normally low-profile, GOP-leaning suburban seat has become a live Democratic opportunity almost entirely because of the incumbent's months-long disappearance, layered on top of a Democratic 2025 statewide environment. ## Snapshot A large north-central New Jersey suburban-and-rural seat (it contains Trump's Bedminster club) that has flipped repeatedly over the last decade. Trump carried NJ-07 by ~1 point in 2024. Incumbent **[[Tom Kean Jr.]]** (R), son of former NJ governor Tom Kean Sr., beat Tom Malinowski in 2022 and is Trump-endorsed. **[[Rebecca Bennett]]** is the Democratic nominee. **Cook moved NJ-07 Toss Up → Lean D on Sept 25, 2026** — with AZ-01, one of two Republican-held seats Cook now rates as leaning Democratic. Sabato and Inside Elections had already moved to Tilt Democratic. ## Incumbent **[[Tom Kean Jr.]]** (R). Dynasty-brand New Jersey Republican; unopposed in the GOP primary and Trump-endorsed. His undisclosed medical absence (no recorded vote since early March 2026) is the central issue of the race; as of early June he said he would "transition from virtual to in-person work within a matter of weeks." ## Democratic nominee **[[Rebecca Bennett]]** (D) — former Navy helicopter pilot and healthcare business leader. Won a four-way June 2 primary (over physician Tina Shah, ex-SBA official Michael Roth, and business owner Brian Varela) on an affordability/cost-of-living message, raising $2.9M+ from a small-dollar base. She has called Kean a "coward" over his absence and hit him on the Trump tax bill and the NJ–NY rail-tunnel fight. Most of her haul was spent winning the primary, so rebuilding cash quickly is her near-term task. ## Republican primary **[[Tom Kean Jr.]]** was unopposed and Trump-endorsed. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | [[Cook Political Report]] | Lean Democratic | Toss Up | Moved Sept 25, 2026 | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Tilt Democratic | Toss Up | Shifted toward D | | Inside Elections | Tilt Democratic | Toss Up | Shifted toward D | **Context**: The rating drift toward Democrats tracks both Kean's absence and the post-2025 New Jersey environment after [[Mikie Sherrill]] won the governorship. ## Key dates - **June 2, 2026** — NJ primary (D & R) — completed - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money - **Rebecca Bennett (D)**: $2.9M+ raised pre-primary from 15,500+ donors (~90% under $100); most spent on the primary, leaving low post-primary cash on hand (exact Q1 COH unconfirmed). National Republicans reportedly spent ~$650K trying to stop her. - **Tom Kean Jr. (R)**: Trump-endorsed incumbent; exact 2026 fundraising figures unconfirmed in available reporting. ## Intel notes - **The absence is the story.** A multi-month medical disappearance with no diagnosis disclosed gives Democrats a clean message and is the proximate cause of the ratings shift. - **2025 gubernatorial coattails.** [[Mikie Sherrill]]'s win and Democratic organizational carryover improve the down-ballot environment. - **SALT / affordability.** Bennett is pressing Kean's tax-bill vote and the property-tax/SALT angle in a high-tax district. - **Bennett's empty war chest** is the GOP's near-term opening: she must re-raise fast against a funded (if absent) incumbent. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $267,911.62 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$267,911.62** in this district on **4 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Tom Kean Jr.]] | **$267,911.62** | 4 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. **Note:** the filing codes the target as `Kean, Thomas`. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Tom Kean Jr.]] — incumbent - [[Rebecca Bennett]] — Democratic nominee - [[Mikie Sherrill]] — 2025 NJ governor (environment) - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — NJ-07 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/New_Jersey's_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2026_(June_2_Democratic_primary)) - [NBC News — Bennett wins NJ-07 primary](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/nj-7-district-house-election-primary-winners-midterms-kean-jr-bennett-rcna347467) - [New Jersey Monitor — four Democrats vie to challenge Kean](https://newjerseymonitor.com/2026/05/21/four-democrats-are-vying-to-challenge-rep-thomas-kean-jr/) - [New Jersey Globe — Bennett added to Red to Blue](https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/bennett-named-to-dcccs-red-to-blue-list/) - [CNN — Kean Jr. absence from Congress](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/15/politics/tom-kean-jr-absence-congress-under-doctors-care) - [PBS NewsHour — NJ voters seek answers on Kean absence](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/new-jersey-voters-look-for-answers-about-tom-kean-jr-s-prolonged-absence-from-congress) - [Cook Political Report — NJ-07](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483531)