# MI-10 — 2026 U.S. House Race ## Snapshot **Settled August 4: [[Christina Hines]] (D) vs. [[Michael Bouchard Jr.]] (R)** for the Macomb County seat [[John James]] vacated to run for governor. Hines, a former Macomb County prosecutor with EMILY's List behind her, took roughly 47% of a three-way Democratic primary over Commerce Department lawyer Eric Chung (~30%) and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel (~23%). Bouchard — an Army National Guard captain with the 82nd and 101st Airborne, a Bronze Star, a Trump endorsement, and the name of his father, the longtime Oakland County sheriff — won the Republican side with about 72–74% after money leader Robert Lulgjuraj dropped out. **Cook moved the seat from Lean R to Republican Toss Up by August 25.** R+3; Trump 52–46 in 2024; James won 51.1–45.0. ## Open seat - **[[John James]]** (R) — two-term incumbent, running for governor. The 2022 race here was decided by ~1,600 votes. ## How the nominations were decided (August 4, 2026) ### Democratic primary (complete unofficial) | Candidate | % (approx.) | |---|---| | **Christina Hines** | **~47** | | Eric Chung | ~30 | | Tim Greimel | ~23 | - **[[Christina Hines]]** — former Macomb County prosecutor (special-victims unit); University of Michigan, Wayne State Law; ran for county prosecutor in 2024. EMILY's List and labor. Named by [[Elissa Slotkin]] as one of four Michigan nominees "in seats we can flip." - Eric Chung — former Commerce Department attorney (CHIPS Act implementation); Harvard, Yale Law; the fundraising leader. - Tim Greimel — Mayor of Pontiac 2022–2026; former state House Democratic leader. ### Republican primary | Candidate | % | |---|---| | **Michael Bouchard Jr.** | **72–74** | | Justin Kirk | ~17 | | others | — | Detroit News (AP unofficial, 9:17 p.m.): 73.8 / 17.2 / 3.6; Fox: 72.22% (45,473 votes). Lulgjuraj withdrew despite $1.0M raised. ## General election Hines vs. Bouchard. No public poll since the primary. Cook Republican Toss Up (Aug 25); Sabato Toss Up; Inside Elections Tilt R (prior). ## Ratings history | Outlet | Prior | Current | |---|---|---| | Cook | Lean R (June) | **Toss Up** (Aug 25) | | Sabato | Toss Up | Toss Up | | Inside Elections | Tilt R | Tilt R (unconfirmed since Aug) | ## Key dates - 2026-08-04 — primaries (held) - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Intel notes - **Cook's downgrade is the fact of the month**: an R+3 open seat in Trump-trending Macomb moved to Toss Up after the nominees were set, which reads as a judgment on Bouchard's general-election profile relative to James, or on the environment, or both. - **The Bouchard name** is the district's highest-recognition asset — the father was Oakland County sheriff for two decades and the 2006 Senate nominee — but MI-10 is mostly Macomb; the Oakland slice (Pontiac) is the Democratic end. - **Hines over the money leader** (Chung) is the second Michigan Democratic primary on August 4 where the best-funded candidate lost; with MI-07 it suggests the state's Democratic primary electorate is not buying résumés this cycle. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $1,682,608.47 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$1,682,608.47** in this district on **4 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | Michael Bouchard | **$1,614,988.47** | 3 | | support | [[Christina Hines]] | **$67,620.00** | 1 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. MI-10 is the **only district on the notice where HMP spent on both sides of the ballot** — 96.0% of its $1,682,608.47 here attacks the Republican and 4.0% supports the Democrat. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[John James]] · [[Christina Hines]] · [[Michael Bouchard Jr.]] · [[Elissa Slotkin]] - [[MI-07-2026]] — the other Michigan toss-up - [[2026 House Races Hub]] ## Content leads - **"Macomb decides"**: MI-10 as the Trump-trending blue-collar seat that will tell you whether the 2024 realignment holds without Trump on the ballot. ## Sources - [CBS Detroit — Michigan 10th District primary](https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-10th-congressional-district-august-primary-election/) - [Detroit News — Bouchard wins 10th District Republican primary (Aug 4, 2026)](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/04/michael-bouchard-wins-10th-district-republican-primary/91175803007/) - [ClickOnDetroit / AP — Hines wins Democratic primary](https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/08/05/christina-hines-wins-us-house-district-10-republican-primary-election-ap-projects/) - [Cook Political Report — 2026 House race ratings (Aug 25, 2026)](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)