# MI-08 — 2026 U.S. House Race > [!success] Primary result — August 4, 2026 — and it is the strangest result of the cycle > **Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)** was unopposed. On the Republican side, **Thomas Smith won with just over 50%** — defeating [[Donald Trump]]-endorsed **Amir Hassan** (~33%) and Alfred Lemmo (~16%). > > **Smith had suspended his campaign in mid-July and endorsed Lemmo.** He was not running. He won anyway. > > November: **McDonald Rivet vs. Smith**. Cook and Sabato both rate MI-08 **Likely D** (Cook as of its Sept 25, 2026 ratings). > > Why it matters beyond the novelty: a withdrawn, non-campaigning candidate beat a sitting president's endorsed pick in a competitive district. That is a cleaner measure of the ceiling on endorsement transfer in low-information down-ballot primaries than any of the marquee races — there was no rival campaign, no money and no message on the winning side, only a name on a ballot. ## Snapshot — McDonald Rivet defends a Trump-won seat from strength Freshman Democrat **[[Kristen McDonald Rivet]]** defends a mid-Michigan seat (Flint, Saginaw, Bay City) that Trump narrowly carried in 2024 even as she won it by ~6.7 points — a classic crossover profile. She is **unopposed in the August 4 Democratic primary** and sits on a ~$2.6M war chest against a thin, underfunded Republican field, which has pushed forecasters toward Lean-to-Likely Democratic. **Key takeaway:** A Trump +2 / Rivet +7 district where Republican recruitment failed: the 2020/2022/2024 nominee Paul Junge is not running, and the two declared Republicans are low-profile. The incumbent does not currently look genuinely vulnerable. ## Snapshot Mid-Michigan: Flint (Genesee), Saginaw, Bay City, and the Tri-Cities/Midland area. Open in 2024 after Dan Kildee retired; Cook PVI **R+1** (one of the Democratic-held seats Trump won in 2024). **[[Kristen McDonald Rivet]]** (D) won it 51.3–44.6 over Paul Junge while Trump carried the district ~50–48. ## Incumbent **[[Kristen McDonald Rivet]]** (D). Freshman; former state senator and Bay City school-board member with an economic-populist brand. Unopposed in the primary. Q4 2025: ~$3.3M raised, ~$2.63M cash on hand — a dominant war chest. ## Republican primary (Aug 4, not yet held) A two-candidate field, both low-profile: Navy veteran **Amir Hassan** (the presumptive frontrunner; ~$250K raised / ~$65K COH at end of 2025) and **Alfred Lemmo** (no FEC finance reported). No Trump endorsement identified. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | Cook Political Report | Likely Democratic | Lean Democratic | Current per Cook's Sept 25, 2026 House ratings | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Lean D | Moved to Likely D | | Inside Elections | Lean Democratic | — | Trending safer | **Context**: The seat drifted right at the presidential level but the incumbent's cash edge and a weak GOP field have moved forecasters toward Likely D. ## Key dates - **August 4, 2026** — Michigan primary - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money - **Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)**: ~$3.3M raised, ~$2.63M COH (end of 2025). - **Amir Hassan (R)**: ~$250K raised, ~$65K COH — a ~40:1 cash disadvantage. ## Intel notes - **Crossover seat, but not in play (yet).** Trump +2 / Rivet +7, a ~$2.6M COH edge, and a thin GOP field have nudged forecasters toward Likely D. - **GOP recruitment failure is the story.** No marquee Republican recruit; 2024 nominee Paul Junge sat it out. - **Working-class base insulation.** Flint/Saginaw's Black and working-class Democratic base plus Rivet's economic-populist message blunt the district's presidential rightward drift. ## Related KB entities - [[Kristen McDonald Rivet]] — incumbent - [[Elissa Slotkin]] — former area representative (pre-redistricting) - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview - [[MI-07-2026]], [[MI-10-2026]] — other Michigan battlegrounds ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — MI-08 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan's_8th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Cook Political Report — MI-08](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483316) - [UVA Center for Politics — 17 House rating shifts](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/house-rating-changes-17-shifts-in-florida-indiana-michigan-ohio-and-elsewhere/) - [Detroit News — first 2026 fundraising hauls](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/15/michigan-u-s-house-races-shape-up-with-first-2026-fundraising-hauls/)