# MI-07 — 2026 U.S. House Race ## Snapshot **Settled August 4: [[Tom Barrett]] (R) vs. [[William Lawrence]] (D).** The Lansing-area bellwether (Cook PVI EVEN; Trump 50.0–49.0 in 2024; Slotkin 2022 → Barrett 2024) produced the cycle's clearest progressive upset in a Democratic House primary. Lawrence — a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement and the Michigan Rent Is Too Damn High Coalition, endorsed by [[Bernie Sanders]] and the Working Families Party and cross-endorsed with Senate nominee [[Abdul El-Sayed]] — won **43.2%** against former Ambassador to Ukraine [[Bridget Brink]] (29.2%) and retired Navy SEAL [[Matt Maasdam]] (27.6%). The establishment split its vote: the Democratic Women's Caucus and EMILY's List backed Brink, [[Elissa Slotkin]] and VoteVets backed Maasdam, the DCCC stayed neutral, and the organizer who had knocked ~100,000 doors took the plurality. Cook (Aug 25): **Republican Toss Up.** ## Incumbent **[[Tom Barrett]]** (R), Charlotte. 22-year Army veteran (helicopter pilot; Iraq, Kuwait, Guantánamo, Korea), retired CW2. Michigan House 2015–2019, Michigan Senate 2019–2023. Lost MI-07 to Slotkin by ~5 in 2022; won the open seat in 2024 over [[Curtis Hertel Jr.]] 50.3–46.6. Entered 2026 with $2.8M cash on hand (Q1). Whether he drew a nominal primary opponent on August 4 is not confirmed by any source reached — do not assert "unopposed." ## How the Democratic nomination was decided (August 4, 2026) | Candidate | % | |---|---| | **William Lawrence** | **43.2** | | Bridget Brink | 29.2 | | Matt Maasdam | 27.6 | AP called it at 11:23 p.m. with 55% counted; Axios's final figures were 43 / 28.8 / 27.6. - **[[William Lawrence]]** — Lansing native; Sunrise Movement co-founder; tenant organizer (Mid-Michigan Tenant Resource Center). No prior office. Ran on a 12-month federal moratorium on new hyperscale data centers and a no-corporate-PAC pledge. - **[[Bridget Brink]]** — career Foreign Service; Ambassador to Slovakia, then Ukraine (May 2022–April 2025), resigned over Trump-administration Ukraine policy. EMILY's List. Her national-profile launch made her the presumed frontrunner for a year. - **[[Matt Maasdam]]** — 20-year Navy SEAL, military aide to [[Barack Obama]], business founder; Slotkin and VoteVets. ## General election Barrett vs. Lawrence. 2024 baseline: Barrett +3.7; presidential Trump +1.0. No public general-election poll since the primary. Cook Toss Up (Aug 25 edition, which lists 18 Republican-held seats at Toss Up or worse against 11 Democratic). ## Ratings history | Outlet | Rating | As of | |---|---|---| | Cook | Republican Toss Up | Aug 25, 2026 | | Sabato | Toss Up | — | | Inside Elections | Toss Up | — | | Cook PVI 2025 | EVEN | — | ## Key dates - 2026-08-04 — primaries (held) - 2026-11-03 — general election ## Intel notes - **The plurality problem the April draft predicted came true, from the other direction.** This page expected a fractured field to produce a weak nominee; it produced the candidate with the most volunteers and the least institutional money. Lawrence joins Randy Villegas (CA-22) and Matt Dunlap (ME-02) as 2026's progressive-organizer nominees in Republican-held seats, and MI-07 is the most winnable of the three. - **The data-center moratorium** is the first federal-race platform plank built around AI infrastructure, in a district where hyperscale siting fights are live. Watch whether Barrett attacks it as anti-growth or avoids it. - **The establishment split is the mechanism.** Brink and Maasdam together took 57%; either alone would likely have won. The DCCC's neutrality here — contrasted with its intervention in VA-02 — is the case for and against the committee picking. - **Hertel as MDP chair** still controls coordinated spending; expect it concentrated here and in MI-10 regardless of the nominee's lane. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $852,476.75 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$852,476.75** in this district on **5 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Tom Barrett]] | **$842,131.75** | 4 | | support | [[William Lawrence]] | **$10,345.00** | 1 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. **Note:** the filing codes the target as `Barrett, Thomas`. The support line is **1.21%** of HMP's $852,476.75 here. 🔴 **This notice was a late filing on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not used here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Tom Barrett]] · [[William Lawrence]] · [[Bridget Brink]] · [[Matt Maasdam]] · [[Curtis Hertel Jr.]] · [[Elissa Slotkin]] - [[2026 House Races Hub]] · [[2026 Midterms Hub]] ## Content leads - **"The Ambassador who quit — and lost the primary"**: Brink's national profile vs. Lawrence's doors. - **"The bellwether that keeps flipping"**: MI-07 across 2022 / 2024 / 2026, now with a Sunrise nominee. - **"Sanders vs. EMILY's"**: the lane split, resolved. ## Sources - [Michigan Public — Lawrence wins MI-07 Democratic primary (Aug 5, 2026)](https://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-08-05/william-lawrence-wins-democratic-primary-for-michigans-7th-congressional-district) - [Michigan Advance — Will Lawrence emerges as victor (Aug 4, 2026)](https://michiganadvance.com/2026/08/04/will-lawrence-emerges-as-victor-in-mi-7-democratic-primary/) - [Axios — Michigan 7th: Lawrence, Maasdam, Brink](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/05/michigan-7th-district-will-lawrence-maasdam-brink) - [Cook Political Report — 2026 House race ratings (Aug 25, 2026)](https://www.cookpolitical.com/print/ratings/races/house)