# ME-02 — 2026 U.S. House Race (Tier 2) > [!info] Tier 2 light file > Likely-rated seat — condensed tracking page. Promote to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. Rural northern Maine seat (Trump carried it by ~9 in 2024) where conservative Democrat **Jared Golden** repeatedly survived on a personal brand — but his **January 2026 retirement** flipped the rating to **Likely Republican**. Former Governor **Paul LePage** (R) is running; it is a top NRCC pickup target and the clearest Democratic-held loss risk in New England. **Ratings:** Cook **Likely Republican** (flipped on Golden's retirement). ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $1,245,245.97 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$1,245,245.97** in this district on **5 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Paul LePage]] | **$1,245,245.97** | 5 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. At **$1,245,245.97** this is the sixth-largest of the notice's 44 positions and the largest single-district position in New England. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on 2026-10-08 and added here on 2026-10-10.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[Susan Collins]] — Maine's marquee Senate race ([[ME-Sen-2026]])