# IN-05 — 2026 U.S. House Race %% midterms-pin:start — remove or reword after the election cycle wraps %% > [!danger] 🔴 Live now: the 2026 Midterms Election Results War Room > **Democrats will control both the House and the Senate**, NBC News and Decision Desk HQ project. Race calls, every seat that has flipped, and every court ruling, federal action and polling-place problem around the vote and the count, newest first, with a source on every entry: **[[2026 Midterms Live - Election Results War Room]]** > > **Background on every race:** [[2026 Midterms Hub]] · [[2026 Senate Races Hub]] · [[2026 House Races Hub]] · [[2026 Governor Races Hub]] · [[2026 Ballot Measures Hub]] · [[How a Ballot Is Counted]] · [[How a Midterm Election Is Certified]] %% midterms-pin:end %% Indiana's 5th District runs northeast from Indianapolis: suburban **Hamilton County** (Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Westfield) plus Anderson, Kokomo, Marion and Muncie and rural counties to the north. Republican Rep. **Victoria Spartz**, first elected in 2020, is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Sen. **J.D. Ford** of Senate District 29, in his first run for federal office. Spartz won by 22.1 points in 2022 and 18.6 in 2024, but the race tightened in the final weeks, and on October 30 the [[Cook Political Report]] moved it from Likely Republican to **Lean Republican**. > [!tip] What decides it > - **Hamilton County.** It has shifted about 28 points toward Democrats since 2012, one of the largest shifts in the country, according to WTHR. "If Ford doesn't win Hamilton County, he cannot win this district," the IU Indianapolis political scientist Aaron Dusso told the station. Cook made the same point. > - **Turnout.** Nearly 40,000 people had voted early in Hamilton County by late October, almost double the pace of the 2022 midterm (WTHR). > - **Timing.** Indiana's polls close at 6 p.m. local time, and this district is on Eastern time, so like [[KY-06-2026]] it is among the first competitive House races to report on election night. ## The candidates **Victoria Spartz (Republican)** has held the seat since January 2021. She beat Scott King in the May 5, 2026 primary with 59.9 percent. **J.D. Ford (Democrat)** is an Indiana state senator. He won a crowded May 5 Democratic primary with 42.5 percent. ## The numbers before Election Day - **Ratings:** Cook Lean Republican (moved Oct. 30). According to Ballotpedia, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ all had it Likely Republican. - **Polls:** a nonpartisan Quantus Insights poll released Oct. 28 had Spartz 45, Ford 41.8, with 9.8 percent undecided (601 likely voters, margin of error 4.4 points). A [[House Majority PAC]] poll in October had the Republican ahead by 1; a Ford campaign poll in August had Spartz ahead by 2. - **Money:** through Oct. 15, Spartz had raised $2.2 million and Ford about $1.4 million, according to WFYI's reading of federal filings; Spartz also lent her campaign $450,000 (WTHR). WFYI, citing AdImpact data, reported Republican groups had spent about $712,000 in the district and Democratic groups about $470,000, including [[Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC]], which WFYI says is funded by [[Chris Larsen]] and is spending against Spartz. WTHR reported [[No Going Back PAC]] committed more than $400,000 to ads opposing Ford. - **History:** WTHR reports no Democrat has won the district since 1990. ## Result > [!success] Called: J.D. Ford (D) wins, a Democratic pickup > The Associated Press projected at 1:03 a.m. on November 4, 2026, that Democratic state Sen. J.D. Ford defeated Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Ford led about 51.7% to 48.3% with 99% of the vote counted (unofficial). Vote totals are unofficial until Indiana certifies the result. Sources: [Washington Examiner](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/4790709/spartz-loses-to-democrat-in-surprise-house-seat-flip-in-indiana/), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6194526-jd-ford-upsets-victoria-spartz/). Live coverage: [[2026 Midterms Live - Election Results War Room]]. ## Sources - [Ballotpedia: Indiana's 5th Congressional District election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Indiana's_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [WFYI: Indiana's 5th District race tightens but Spartz still leads Ford (Oct. 31, 2026)](https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-10-31/indianas-5th-congressional-district-victoria-spartz-jd-ford-final-stretch) - [WTHR (via Yahoo News): National spending, new poll indicates close race (Oct. 28, 2026)](https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/national-spending-poll-indicates-close-205756895.html) ## Connections - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[KY-06-2026]] — the other early-reporting bellwether next door - [[2026 Midterms Live - Election Results War Room]]