# IA-03 (2026) — Zach Nunn vs. Sarah Trone Garriott > [!success] Primary result — June 2, 2026 > **Neither primary was contested.** [[Zach Nunn]] (R) and [[Sarah Trone Garriott]] (D) were both unopposed. > November: **Nunn vs. Trone Garriott**. Cook: **Toss Up**. The field-clearing this page anticipated in early 2026 held all the way to the ballot on both sides — unusual in a Toss Up seat, and a sign both parties settled on their candidate early rather than spending the spring on a primary. ## Snapshot Iowa's 3rd Congressional District — Des Moines metro plus southwest Iowa. Republican [[Zach Nunn]], a combat-aviator sophomore incumbent, is running for a third term with Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" after briefly flirting with a 2025 gubernatorial bid. His Democratic opponent — State Senator **[[Sarah Trone Garriott]]** — was the consensus nominee after the D field cleared around her in early 2026, and went through the June 2 primary unopposed. Trone Garriott **outraised Nunn** in Q1 2026 ($1.69M to $1.26M) — a historic pattern break in R+2 Iowa. **Cook: Toss Up. Polymarket: 71% D.** ## Incumbent — Zach Nunn (R) Combat aviator, [[Air Force]] Reserve officer, sophomore Republican (2nd term). Defeated Lanon Baccam (D) 51.9%–48.1% in 2024 — a **3.8-point margin**, running roughly even with Trump's district-level performance. Briefly considered running for governor in mid-2025 but announced 2025-07-14 — "after a discussion Friday with President Donald Trump" — that he would stay in IA-03. Trump issued a "Complete and Total Endorsement" in early 2026. **Unopposed in the June 2 GOP primary.** ## Democratic primary — June 2, 2026 Presumptive nominee: **State Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott** (D-West Des Moines). - Lutheran pastor (M.Div.); Swarthmore undergraduate - Flipped a Republican-held Iowa Senate seat in 2020 - In 2022 she defeated then-Senate President Jake Chapman (R) by 3 points while [[Kim Reynolds]] carried the same seat by 7 — **10-point crossover performance**, the strongest Iowa Democrats have seen in recent cycles - Change Research poll showed Trone Garriott leading Nunn 53%–40% — the strongest D performance tested against him **Field consolidation:** - Iowa House Democratic Leader **Jennifer Konfrst** suspended her IA-03 campaign 2026-01-26 and endorsed Trone Garriott - **Xavier Carrigan** disqualified from the June ballot via March 28, 2026 state panel decision; now plans to run as independent in November general - Two nominal candidates remain on primary ballot (Tracy Limon, Easton Wolfe) but primary is effectively uncontested Cook's March 2026 move to Toss Up **explicitly cited Trone Garriott as frontrunner** — a rare instance of a rating shift tied directly to challenger quality. ## Republican primary Nunn unopposed. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report**: Toss Up (shifted to Toss Up March 2026, citing Trone Garriott's primary frontrunner status) - **Cook PVI 2025**: R+2 - **Polymarket**: Democrats 71% (late April 2026) — notably bullish vs. Cook's 50-50 framing - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: TBD - **Inside Elections**: TBD ## Key dates - **2026-06-02** — Iowa primary (Trone Garriott effectively coronated D-side; Nunn unopposed R-side) - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Q1 Cash on Hand | |---|---|---| | Nunn (R) | $1.26M (incl. JFC $350K, [[Leadership PAC]] $20K) | **$3.04M** | | Trone Garriott (D) | **$1.69M** | $2.19M | - Trone Garriott outraised Nunn by $430K in Q1 (35% advantage) - Nunn retains **$850K cash-on-hand lead** despite being outraised - Trone Garriott's 2025 full-year raise: ~$1.4M; $845K COH at year-end — "the most for a challenger in the history of IA-03 heading into the election year" ## Intel notes - **Historic pattern break**: Republican incumbents almost never get outraised in +2 R Iowa districts in Q1 of an election year. Trone Garriott's $1.69M haul is a leading indicator of grassroots energy (Q1 fundraising correlates with November turnout in recent cycles). - **Crossover quality challenger**: Trone Garriott's proven +10-point crossover in a Reynolds-carried district is the single most important fact of this race. She is effectively the only Iowa Democrat who has shown she can pull a Reynolds voter in a competitive district. - **Trump's dual move**: Trump talked Nunn out of the governor race in July 2025, then endorsed him for reelection — a classic Trump signal that he sees the House seat as defensible. - **Republican primary vacuum**: No MAGA challenger to Nunn despite his narrow 2024 margin. Signals GOP establishment consolidation. - **Polymarket vs. Cook divergence**: 71% D on Polymarket vs. Cook's Toss Up (50-50) framing — markets pricing in Trone Garriott quality + Q1 money + Konfrst consolidation; Cook ratings move more slowly. - **Carrigan independent wildcard**: The disqualified-then-independent Xavier Carrigan could siphon D-leaning votes in November. Low probability but real. - **Nunn at MAGA Nation** (2026-04-14): Spoke at MAGA Nation event on Iran and immigration — doubling down on the Trump alliance rather than distancing. ## Content leads - *The Q1 Money Reversal Cycle*: IA-03, IA-01, OH-01 — Democrats outraising R incumbents in Q1 2026. What does this tell us about the national environment? - *The Single Best Democrat Iowa Has*: Trone Garriott's crossover formula and whether it scales - *Trump's Governor Veto*: Nunn, Lawler, others — the pattern of Trump pushing House R's to defend seats instead of running statewide ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $62,167.13 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$62,167.13** in this district on **2 Schedule E lines** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | [[Zach Nunn]] | **$62,167.13** | 2 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Zach Nunn]] — incumbent - [[Donald Trump]] — endorser - TBD: [[Sarah Trone Garriott]] — Democratic challenger - [[IA-01-2026]] — Miller-Meeks, parallel Iowa toss-up - [[IA-Sen-2026]] — Hinson Senate race (both D Senate primary candidates polling ahead in April Echelon survey) - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub ## Sources - [Cook Political Report — IA-03](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483096) - [Ballotpedia — IA-03 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa's_3rd_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Iowa Capital Dispatch — Dems outraise GOP incumbents (2026-04-17)](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/04/17/democrats-outraise-gop-incumbents-in-2-house-races-hinson-leads-in-senate-funds/) - [Iowa Capital Dispatch — Nunn drops governor bid (2025-07-14)](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/07/14/u-s-rep-zach-nunn-drops-potential-governor-run-after-talk-with-trump/) - [Iowa Capital Dispatch — Konfrst exits, Carrigan disqualified (2026-01-26)](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/01/26/two-democrats-one-republican-suspend-campaigns-for-iowa-congressional-seats/) - [Sarah for Iowa — Cook cites Trone Garriott as frontrunner](https://sarahforiowa.com/citing-sarah-trone-garriott-as-the-frontrunner-to-win-the-nomination-cook-political-report-moves-ia-03-to-toss-up/) - [Polymarket — IA-03 House market](https://polymarket.com/event/ia-03-house-election-winner)