# IA-01 — 2026 U.S. House Race > [!success] Primary result — June 2, 2026 > **Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 71.5%** (35,182) over David Pautsch 28.4% (13,957) — a 43-point win. **Christina Bohannan (D)** took over 80% against Travis Terrell. > November: **Miller-Meeks vs. Bohannan**, the third straight meeting of these two, in a seat Miller-Meeks held by **799 votes** in 2024. Cook: **Toss Up**. > > Note against the page's own prior read: the "Pautsch, written off too early?" thesis below did not survive contact with the ballot. His 44% in 2024 collapsed to 28% once Trump's endorsement was in hand — evidence that the endorsement did exactly the consolidating work the page predicted it might. ## Snapshot Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) — who survived 2024 by **799 votes** (the narrowest margin for any House Republican that cycle) — defends a southeastern Iowa district rated Toss Up by Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Cook PVI R+3 and Trump carrying the district by ~8 points in 2024 frame this as a textbook split-ticket seat. Law professor **Christina Bohannan** (D) is running for the third straight cycle and is the all-but-certain D nominee. Q1 2026 fundraising shows Bohannan **outraising Miller-Meeks $2.09M to $1.49M** — reversing the traditional R cash advantage in Iowa House races. Bohannan carries DCCC **Red to Blue** (Tier 1) designation. Trump endorsed Miller-Meeks in November 2025, which may stiffen turnout but also hardens opposition in a district where Miller-Meeks has badly underperformed the top of the ticket. ## Incumbent **Mariannette Miller-Meeks** (R). Physician; U.S. Army veteran. Former Iowa State Senator (41st District, 2019–2021) and former Director of the Iowa Department of Public Health (2010–2013, Branstad appointment). In Congress since January 2021; seeking fourth term. Energy and Commerce + Veterans' Affairs committees. Ranked third-highest in bipartisan bill cosponsoring among House freshmen in her first term; generally votes with the conservation-unfriendly end of the House GOP per LCV scorecards. **Trump endorsement** issued November 3, 2025 — "full and complete" support. The narrowest 2024 House R winner; her 799-vote margin is the animating number for the cycle. ## Democratic primary Primary: **June 2, 2026**. DCCC has placed Bohannan on its Red to Blue (Tier 1) list. - **Christina Bohannan** — University of Iowa College of Law professor (torts, copyright, IP); former Iowa House member (2021–2023). UFla BS Environmental Engineering; UFla JD (first in class, Law Review EiC); clerked 11th Circuit. Prior Iowa engineering career at Florida DEP. Announced third bid June 17, 2025. Lost IA-01 in 2022 (Miller-Meeks open-seat, +6) and 2024 (by 799 votes post-recount). Q1 2026: **$2.09M raised / $4.00M cash on hand** — outraised the incumbent. Prediction-market primary odds: 95%+. - **Travis Terrell** — health-care professional from Tiffin, Iowa; Ottumwa-born. Released a "Plan for Workers' Rights and Protections" in 2026. Longshot. ## Republican primary Primary: **June 2, 2026**. Miller-Meeks faces a credible right-flank challenge. - **Mariannette Miller-Meeks (incumbent)** — Trump-endorsed November 2025. Q1 2026: $1.49M raised / $4.32M COH. - **David Pautsch** — Davenport Army veteran; founder of annual Quad Cities Prayer Breakfast. **Won 44% in the 2024 primary** against Miller-Meeks, but fell to **28.4%** on June 2, 2026 with the Trump endorsement working against him. Ran to her right; explicitly undeterred by the endorsement, and decisively beaten by it. - **Grant Hill** — running simultaneously for Iowa House District 88; limited profile. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | Cook Political Report | Toss Up | Lean R | Post-2024 narrow hold | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss Up | — | Current | | Inside Elections | Toss Up | — | Current | | Cook PVI 2025 | R+3 | — | Slight GOP lean | **Context**: Miller-Meeks ran 8 points behind Trump in 2024 — the widest split-ticket underperformance of any returning Iowa Republican. Under a neutral national environment she's the second-most-vulnerable Iowa R in the delegation behind the IA-03 incumbent. ## Key dates - **June 17, 2025** — Bohannan announces third run - **November 3, 2025** — Trump endorses Miller-Meeks - **April 15, 2026** — Q1 2026 FEC filings due (filed) - **June 2, 2026** — **Iowa primary (both parties)** - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money **Q1 2026 FEC filings:** | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Cash on Hand | |---|---|---| | Christina Bohannan (D) | **$2.09M** | $4.00M | | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | $1.49M | $4.32M | Bohannan outraised the incumbent by ~40% in Q1 — a meaningful signal in a state where Republicans have consistently held the cash-on-hand edge in competitive House races. Near parity on cash on hand. House Majority PAC launched a **major April 2026 Iowa ad buy** targeting Miller-Meeks over Medicare, insulin pricing, and retirement-age votes — reportedly more than double HMP's total 2024 Iowa spend. Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets both in play (CR market reaches IA-01; Des Moines bleeds into IA-03 next door). ## Intel notes - **The 799-vote trauma**: Miller-Meeks' 2024 recount survival is, from a narrative standpoint, the central fact of the 2026 race. Every ad, every endorsement, every money report gets framed against 799. - **Trump endorsement, double-edged**: The November 2025 Trump endorsement almost certainly neutralizes Pautsch as a viable R-primary alternative, but it also writes Bohannan's entire general-election ad script — a district that Harris nearly carried is now an incumbent fully bear-hugged by Trump. - **Bohannan's third-run hypothesis**: Conventional wisdom punishes repeat candidates; the counter-argument here is that Bohannan improved her margin meaningfully from 2022 to 2024 despite a Trump wave, and the cash jump to $4M cash on hand by Q1 2026 suggests donor confidence has increased, not decreased. - **HMP's Iowa signal**: HMP's Iowa expansion (IA-01 + IA-03 reach) is the largest early-cycle outside-spending footprint of any Midwest D PAC. If Bohannan's polling or fundraising slip, expect HMP to pull back to IA-03 ([[Zach Nunn]]'s seat) first. - **Pautsch, written off too early? — ANSWERED, NO.** His 44% in 2024 was a real data point, and it did not repeat: he took 28.4% on June 2 while Miller-Meeks took 71.5%. The Trump endorsement did not read as "establishment cover"; it consolidated the primary electorate behind her and removed the intra-party threat entirely. The general-election cost of the endorsement, in a district Harris nearly carried, is the part still outstanding. - **Mid-2025 polling**: HMP/PPP poll had Bohannan +4 (43–39, 18 undecided). No April 2026 public polling surfaced. ## Related KB entities - [[Mariannette Miller-Meeks]] — incumbent - [[2026 Midterms Hub]] — hub - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview - [[Christina Bohannan]] — Democratic nominee - TBD: [[David Pautsch]] ## Content leads - **"799"** — an explainer piece on the closest House margin of 2024 and what it predicts for 2026 - **"Trump-endorsed, district-underwater"** — the split-ticket incumbents who now have to defend a Trump hug they didn't ask for - **"Bohannan's third swing"** — the political science of repeat challengers and when they actually break through (case studies: [[Abigail Spanberger]], Conor Lamb, [[Mary Peltola]]) ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — IA-01 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa's_1st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Ballotpedia — Mariannette Miller-Meeks](https://ballotpedia.org/Mariannette_Miller-Meeks) - [Ballotpedia — Christina Bohannan](https://ballotpedia.org/Christina_Bohannan) - [Cook Political Report — IA-01 2026](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483086) - [Iowa Capital Dispatch — Trump endorses Miller-Meeks](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2025/11/03/president-donald-trump-endorses-u-s-rep-mariannette-miller-meeks/) - [Iowa Capital Dispatch — Q1 2026 fundraising](https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2026/04/17/democrats-outraise-gop-incumbents-in-2-house-races-hinson-leads-in-senate-funds/) - [House Majority PAC — IA-01 ad + polling](https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/new-polling-shows-christina-bohannan-leading-rep-mariannette-miller-meeks-in-ia-01/) - [FEC — Christina Bohannan for Congress (C00787820)](https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/c00787820/) - [FEC — Miller-Meeks (H8IA02043)](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8IA02043/) - [DCCC — 2026 Red to Blue](https://dccc.org/2026-red-to-blue/) - [GovTrack — Miller-Meeks 2024 report card](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/mariannette_miller_meeks/456817/report-card/2024) - [Wikipedia — Iowa's 1st congressional district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa's_1st_congressional_district)