# FL-09 — 2026 U.S. House Race (Tier 2) > [!info] Tier 2 light file > Likely-rated seat — condensed tracking page. Promote to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. The standout "redistricting created a Likely R" case. The Orlando-area seat is held by Democrat **Darren Soto** (who won 2024 by ~12.5 points on the old D+4 lines), but Florida's 2025 mid-decade gerrymander — signed by DeSantis May 4, 2026 and left standing by the Florida Supreme Court June 10, 2026 — redrew FL-09 from a majority-Latino Democratic seat to a plurality-white **~Trump+18** district. Soto has signaled he will run in the redrawn seat anyway; Cook rates it **Likely Republican**. **Ratings:** Cook **Likely Republican** (was safely D pre-redraw). ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[Ron DeSantis]] — signed the 2025 Florida map