# CA-48 — 2026 U.S. House Race Democrat **[[Marni von Wilpert]]**, a San Diego City Council member, faces Republican **[[Jim Desmond]]**, a San Diego County supervisor, on **November 3, 2026**, for the seat Republican Rep. **[[Darrell Issa]]** is leaving. [[Proposition 50 (California)]] redrew the district from one Donald Trump carried by about 15 points in 2024 into one Kamala Harris would have won by about 3. [[Cook Political Report]] rates it Lean Democratic. CalMatters ranked it third among the state's House races for outside spending as of mid-October. ## Where it stands (Oct. 31) - **Ratings:** Cook Political Report rates it **Lean Democratic** (as of its Oct. 23 update); [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] rates it **Likely Democratic** (Oct. 30); Inside Elections rates it **Tilt Democratic** (Oct. 15). - **Polls:** A SurveyUSA poll for ABC 10News and the San Diego Union-Tribune, taken Oct. 1–7, found von Wilpert at 47% and Desmond at 38%, with 15% undecided. A July poll by Lake Research Partners, a Democratic firm, released by the von Wilpert campaign, had her ahead 48% to 46%. - **Money:** Through Oct. 14, von Wilpert had raised $4.97 million and had $659,000 on hand; Desmond had raised $3.18 million and had $718,000 on hand (FEC). ## The district The new 48th takes in northern San Diego County, including Escondido, San Marcos, Vista and Oceanside, and reaches into Riverside County around Temecula and the city of Palm Springs. Proposition 50, approved by California voters in November 2025 as [[Gavin Newsom]]'s answer to Republican [[Mid-Decade Redistricting]] in Texas, joined conservative Temecula and Fallbrook with Democratic-leaning Oceanside and Palm Springs. By Ballotpedia's count the old district backed Trump 56% to 41%; the new one would have backed Harris 50% to 47%, an 18-point swing. UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser told KQED that "the average voter in this area of San Diego is leaning towards the Democrats." ## The candidates - **[[Marni von Wilpert]] (D)** has served on the San Diego City Council since 2020, after work as a deputy city attorney and a federal labor lawyer; she is a former Peace Corps volunteer. She is in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program and has campaigned against Trump's tariffs, immigration raids and the [[Iran War 2026]]. [[Kamala Harris]] campaigned with her in September. - **[[Jim Desmond]] (R)** is finishing his second term on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors and was mayor of San Marcos from 2006 to 2018. A Navy veteran, he retired in 2020 as a Delta Air Lines captain. He switched from the neighboring 49th in March, after the new lines put his home in the 48th and Issa did not file for reelection. Issa endorsed him, and [[Donald Trump]] endorsed him on April 14. Desmond has campaigned on taxes, regulation and energy prices, and broke with Trump over the president's remarks about Iran: "I vehemently disagree with President Trump's comments." ## How the nominations were decided Under California's top-two primary (see [[Jungle Primary]]), in the **June 2, 2026** primary, Desmond finished first with 38.9% (73,508 votes) and von Wilpert second with 20.8% (39,327), according to Ballotpedia's final tally. Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar was third with 10.6%. Nine Democrats together took about 51% of the vote and two Republicans about 48%. ## Money | Candidate | Raised (2025–26) | Spent | Cash on hand (Oct. 14) | |---|---|---|---| | [[Marni von Wilpert]] (D) | $4,966,576 | $4,307,440 | $659,136 | | [[Jim Desmond]] (R) | $3,177,972 | $2,460,454 | $717,518 | *Source: FEC candidate summaries through the pre-general report; cash-on-hand figures match Quiver Quantitative's tally.* Von Wilpert's committee reported $20,000 in debts and Desmond's about $3,100. **Outside money.** CalMatters reported on Oct. 20 that outside groups had spent more than $6 million in the race, nearly all of it for von Wilpert, including more than $4 million from [[House Majority PAC]], and that Trump's newly formed [[No Going Back PAC]] had spent more than $330,000 for Desmond. Before the primary, Democratic Majority for Israel, which backed von Wilpert, spent about $2 million against Campa-Najjar. FEC filings include: - [[House Majority PAC]] — **$914,460 opposing Desmond** in six lines dated Oct. 6, part of a $21.9 million House filing received Oct. 8 (see [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]). - [[Civic Renewal Fund]] — **$3,741 opposing von Wilpert** in direct mail, its only opposition line in a 27-district notice received Oct. 4. These are amounts as filed with the FEC through Oct. 8, 2026; later spending is not included. ## What to watch - **North County cities.** KQED expects the race to turn on Escondido, San Marcos, Oceanside and Vista; Desmond was mayor of San Marcos for 12 years. - **The Riverside County end.** Harris carried Palm Springs by double digits, while the Temecula area is conservative; a pro-von Wilpert super PAC is airing ads in the Los Angeles market, which reaches it. - **Desmond's distance from Trump.** His campaign's endorsement list leaves out Trump, KQED reported. - **A slow count.** California counts mail ballots for days after Election Day; the June primary results were not certified until July 10. ## Connections - [[Marni von Wilpert]] — Democratic nominee - [[Jim Desmond]] — Republican nominee - [[Darrell Issa]] — retiring incumbent - [[Proposition 50 (California)]] — the 2025 redistricting measure - [[House Majority PAC]] · [[No Going Back PAC]] · [[Civic Renewal Fund]] — outside spenders - [[CA-45-2026]], [[CA-41-2026]], [[CA-06-2026]] — other California seats Proposition 50 reshaped - [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]] - [[2026 House Races Hub]] · [[2026 Key State Races Hub]] · [[2026 Midterms Hub]]