# CA-41 (2026) — Open seat after Calvert moves to CA-40 > [!success] Primary result — June 2, 2026 (top-two) > **Linda Sánchez (D)** and **Mitch Clemmons (R)** advanced. > **The open-seat framing on this page is superseded.** CA-41 did not stay open: Rep. [[Linda Sánchez]], who had represented CA-38 and whose old constituency makes up roughly half the redrawn 41st, moved into this district rather than leave it to a fragmented field — so the seat now has a sitting Democratic incumbent running in it, not an open contest among first-time candidates. Ballotpedia lists her as the incumbent here. > > The bigger pattern: [[Proposition 50 (California)]] did not simply hand Democrats seats, it **reshuffled incumbents**. [[Ken Calvert]] moved out of CA-41 to CA-40 to face fellow Republican [[Young Kim]]; Sánchez moved in behind him and left CA-38 open. Two incumbents relocated, one intra-party fight created, one seat vacated — from a single district's redraw. ## Snapshot California's 41st Congressional District — Riverside County Inland Empire, including **Palm Springs** (~50% LGBTQ+ population), Corona, Murrieta, parts of San Bernardino County. After California voters approved **Proposition 50 on 2025-11-04** (the "Election Rigging Response Act," passed 64.4%–35.6% as the explicit Democratic counter to the Texas mid-decade redraw — see [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]]), the district was redrawn and shifted from **Trump +6 (2024) to Harris +12–14 (2024 vote retrofit)** — a ~20-point swing. **Ken Calvert is NOT running in CA-41 for 2026; he is moving to the neighboring CA-40** (setting up a Calvert vs. [[Young Kim]] R-on-R contest in CA-40). That makes CA-41 an **open-seat Democratic pickup opportunity** on one of the sharpest post-redistricting swings in the country. **That fragmentation resolved in the most conventional way possible: a sitting member moved in.** Rep. [[Linda Sánchez]] (D), previously of CA-38, declared for the redrawn 41st and took first place in the June 2 top-two; Riverside County small-business owner **[[Mitch Clemmons]]** (R) took the second slot. The early-2026 field of five to seven unknown Democrats — and Palm Springs healthcare executive Cody Wiebelhaus on the Republican side — was overtaken by her entry. Will Rollins, the 2022 and 2024 nominee, did not run a third time. ## Prior incumbent — Ken Calvert (R) — NOT running in CA-41 Dean of the California GOP delegation. First elected 1992; 17 terms / 33 years. **Chair, House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense** since 2024. Anchored federal defense contracting to the Inland Empire (March Air Reserve Base modernization, regional infrastructure, veterans' facilities). In 2024 he defeated Will Rollins 51.3%–48.7% (+2.6 points) — **in a district Harris carried overall**, underscoring his personal strength. After Prop 50 passed (2025-11-04) and the map redrew CA-41 into a **Harris +12–14** district, **Calvert declared for the redrawn CA-40** — which retains R lean — setting up an R-on-R intra-party contest with Young Kim. See [[CA-40-2026]] (TBD). **The appropriations-seniority advantage evaporates from CA-41**: whichever new member wins the seat will lack Calvert's 15+ years on Defense Appropriations. ## Democratic primary — June 2, 2026 (top-two jungle) **Fragmented field**; no consensus front-runner. **Still on ballot**: 1. **Brandon Riker** (entrepreneur) — reported **$250K in the first 24 hours** of launch 2. **Abel Chavez** (school board member) 3. **Dave Karson** (investment banker) 4. **Jason Byors** (software engineer) 5. **Ferguson Porter** (small business owner) **Withdrew / redirected**: - **Anuj Dixit** (lawyer, Indian-American, LGBTQ+) — withdrew from CA-41, now running in **CA-39** (Issa's old seat) after Prop 50 moved his residence out of the redrawn CA-41. Raised $150K early 2025. - **Tim Meyers** (musician, former OneRepublic bassist) — withdrew 2025-07-07, now running for **California Lieutenant Governor** (June 2, 2026 primary). **Not running**: - **Will Rollins** — 2022 (R +4.6) and 2024 (R +2.6) nominee. Not running a third time. ## Republican primary — June 2, 2026 (top-two jungle) **Cody Wiebelhaus** — Palm Springs healthcare executive (Independent Healthcare Consultants). Pitches "standing for the people, not the party"; **openly emphasizes LGBTQ+ advocacy** — unusual for a GOP candidate, politically rational for a Palm Springs-heavy district. Only Republican on the ballot after Calvert's CA-40 move. **Top-two risk for GOP**: With only one R on a top-two primary ballot against 5+ D candidates, there is a live scenario where **two Democrats finish top-2 and Wiebelhaus is locked out of the November ballot altogether**. ## Ratings - **Cook Political Report**: **Solid D** — CA-41 does not appear on Cook's Sept 25, 2026 competitive list (Likely / Lean / Toss Up), which in Cook's scheme means Solid; the Harris +12–14 post-Prop 50 lines put it on the Democratic side. - **Sabato's Crystal Ball**: Effectively **Safe Democratic** under the "Gavinmander" post-Prop 50 analysis — Harris +14, Biden +26 baseline - **Inside Elections**: TBD (subscriber paywall) - **Cook PVI 2025**: **R+2** — but this is under the **pre-Prop 50** lines. Post-Prop 50 effectively D+10 or better. - **Polymarket**: No CA-41-specific market detected ## Key dates - **2025-11-04** — Prop 50 approved; redistricting effective for 2026 cycle - **2026-05-04** — Mail ballot distribution begins - **2026-05-18** — Last day to register to vote - **2026-06-02** — California top-two primary (all parties one ballot) - **2026-11-03** — General election ## Money (Q1 2026) | Candidate | Q1 Raised | Cash on Hand | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Calvert (R) — *CA-41 filings* | $752K | $3.7M | Calvert's $3.7M COH technically filed under CA-41 before CA-40 switch — verify how FEC treats the relocation | | Riker (D) | $250K in first 24h of launch (Apr 2025) | TBD | Most visible early-money D | | Dixit (D) | $150K early 2025 | — | Now running CA-39 | | Wiebelhaus (R) | TBD | TBD | Sole R on ballot | | Others (D) | TBD | TBD | Q1 FEC propagating | **Note**: Calvert's $3.7M COH is technically associated with the CA-41 FEC filing under his current House candidate ID; if transferred to his CA-40 campaign committee, it is not available to the eventual CA-41 winner. Per FEC rules he can redesignate or transfer within his own campaign committees. ## Intel notes - **The Prop 50 CA-41 swing is the story.** A ~20-point shift from Trump +6 to Harris +12–14 is among the most dramatic mid-decade redistricting re-ratings in the country. Before Prop 50, CA-41 was a legitimate GOP defense (Calvert had just won a Harris-carried district). After Prop 50, it is effectively an open-seat D pickup — made open by the incumbent's own decision to leave the district. - **Calvert's CA-40 move is the rational incumbent play.** With 33 years of seniority, moving into a still-R-leaning neighbor district is less risky than defending a D+10 redraw as a 72-year-old. Side effect: it creates an R-on-R **Calvert vs. Young Kim** contest in CA-40. - **The D field fragmentation is the only path to GOP November access.** If the D primary vote splits 5 ways at 15–25% each, Wiebelhaus could finish second with 25–30% of the total and make the November ballot. That's the only pathway for Wiebelhaus to November in a structurally D+10 redraw. - **Palm Springs LGBTQ+ dynamics**: Rollins (openly gay, Palm Springs resident) lost 2022 and 2024 by narrower margins than the district leaned R. With Rollins out and only straight candidates in the field, LGBTQ+ community turnout cues change. Wiebelhaus's emphatic LGBTQ+ platform is unusual and could draw some cross-pressure voters — though a GOP pro-LGBTQ+ posture in California has historically not broken the party-ID barrier. - **Appropriations-seniority dividend vanishes**: 33 years of March Air Reserve Base work and regional earmarks are not transferable to a new first-term member, regardless of party. - **Comparison to the "Harris-won R seat" trio that NO LONGER EXISTS as a grouping**: The three seats formerly Harris-won + R-held were CA-41 (Calvert), NY-17 (Lawler), PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). With Calvert moving to CA-40, the trio collapses to a duo (Lawler and Fitzpatrick), and the KB's "three Harris-won R seats" framing needs to be updated. ## Content leads - *The Prop 50 Swing Index*: CA-41's 20-point shift as the most dramatic mid-decade redistricting re-rating in the 2026 cycle - *The Harris-Won Trio That Became a Duo*: reframing Lawler / Fitzpatrick / (ex-Calvert) after the incumbent's own exit - *The Top-Two Lockout Scenario*: how a fragmented D field could accidentally preserve R access to the November ballot - *Calvert vs. Young Kim in CA-40*: a 33-year dean of the delegation meeting a suburban moderate — see [[CA-40-2026]] ## Related KB entities - [[Ken Calvert]] — retiring incumbent / moving to CA-40 (stub) - TBD: [[CA-40-2026]] — Calvert vs. Young Kim R-on-R race created by the move - TBD: [[Will Rollins]] — 2022/2024 D nominee, not running 2026 - TBD: [[Brandon Riker]] — entrepreneur, early D money leader - TBD: [[Cody Wiebelhaus]] — sole Republican on ballot - TBD: [[Proposition 50 (California)]] — the redistricting mechanism - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — hub ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — CA-41 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/California's_41st_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Roll Call — Calvert moves to CA-40 (2025-11-05)](https://rollcall.com/2025/11/05/its-calvert-vs-kim-in-redrawn-southern-california-district/) - [NBC LA — Young Kim & Calvert redrawn district](https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/young-kim-ken-calvert-district-40-orange-county-midterm-elections/3801674/) - [CalMatters — Candidates challenge Calvert](https://calmatters.org/politics/2025/05/inland-empire-election-congress/) - [Wikipedia — 2025 California Proposition 50](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_California_Proposition_50) - [LAist — Prop 50 candidates & redistricting](https://laist.com/news/politics/prop-50-update-candidates-redistricting) - [California SOS — June 2, 2026 primary](https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/primary-election-june-2-2026/) - [Ballotpedia — Ken Calvert](https://ballotpedia.org/Ken_Calvert) - [Ballotpedia — Will Rollins](https://ballotpedia.org/Will_Rollins) - [Ballotpedia — Anuj Dixit](https://ballotpedia.org/Anuj_Dixit) - [DiyaTVUSA — Dixit moves to CA-39](https://diyatvusa.com/anuj-dixit-ends-california-congressional-bid-after-proposition-50-shift/) - [Ballotpedia — Tim Myers (California)](https://ballotpedia.org/Tim_Myers_(California)) - [Ballotpedia — Cody Wiebelhaus](https://ballotpedia.org/Cody_Wiebelhaus) - [FEC — CA-41 2026 race](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/41/2026/) - [FEC — Ken Calvert](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA37023/) - [Sabato's Crystal Ball — "The Gavinmander"](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-gavinmander-how-we-would-rate-the-new-california-democratic-map-if-voters-approve-it/) - [Reckon News — Palm Springs LGBTQ+](https://www.reckon.news/lgbtq/2024/10/this-california-lgbtq-haven-is-surrounded-by-conservatives-and-could-decide-who-controls-congress/)