# CA-22-2026 Republican **[[David Valadao]]**, a Central Valley dairy farmer first elected in 2012, faces Democrat **[[Randy Villegas]]**, a 31-year-old community college instructor, on **November 3, 2026**. The [[Cook Political Report]] and Inside Elections rate the race a Toss-up; [[Sabato's Crystal Ball]] rates it Leans Democratic. It has the highest share of Medicaid enrollees of any Republican-held district, and Valadao is the last House Republican who voted to impeach [[Donald Trump]] in 2021 still on a ballot. ## Where it stands As of October 28: - **Cook Political Report:** Toss Up, the rating it has held since November 2025. - **Sabato's Crystal Ball:** Leans Democratic since July 16, 2026, unchanged in its October 20 ratings. - **Inside Elections:** Toss-up, moved from Tilt Republican on October 1. No independent general-election poll with full methodology has been published. A July survey released by the Villegas campaign showed him ahead 48% to 44%; outside analysts have not confirmed it. On October 16, KVPR reported that available polling put Villegas four to five points ahead. ## The district CA-22 is centered on Bakersfield and takes in parts of Kern, Fresno, Kings and Tulare counties. Two of every three voters are Hispanic, and roughly six in ten residents are enrolled in Medi-Cal, California's Medicaid program. [[Proposition 50 (California)]], approved by voters in November 2025 as [[Gavin Newsom]]'s response to Republican [[Mid-Decade Redistricting]] in Texas, redrew the seat. Republican-leaning Hanford, Porterville and Tulare moved out and Democratic parts of Fresno County came in. Trump's 2024 margin in the district fell from about six points to about two, and the Democratic registration edge widened to roughly 16 points (42% Democratic, 26% Republican). ## The candidates - **[[David Valadao]] (R)** voted in July 2025 for the [[Big Beautiful Bill]], which cut federal [[Medicaid]] spending. At an October 6 televised debate he said "there are no actual cuts" to Medicaid. He was one of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the [[January 6 Capitol Attack]] (see [[Trump Second Impeachment]]); asked about it this year, he told the AP, "I'll let history decide on how to interpret anything I've done." - **[[Randy Villegas]] (D)**, the son of Mexican immigrants, teaches at College of the Sequoias and has served on the Visalia Unified School District board. He is endorsed by [[Bernie Sanders]], who rallied for him in Bakersfield on October 4, and by [[Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez]], who was scheduled to appear with him in Bakersfield on October 23. He opposes the [[Iran War 2026]], which Valadao supports. ## How the nominations were decided California uses a top-two primary (see [[Jungle Primary]]). In the certified **June 2, 2026** results, Valadao led with about 41%, Villegas took about 32%, and Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, finished third with about 27%. CalMatters counted more than $2.2 million in outside messaging against Villegas in the primary's final month, while the [[Congressional Leadership Fund]] ran mail reportedly meant to lift the progressive past Bains. ## Money **Candidates.** By mid-October Valadao had raised nearly $6.1 million for the cycle and Villegas roughly $5.5 million, according to ABC30. Valadao's third-quarter FEC report showed about $930,000 raised and $2.4 million on hand at the end of September; ABC30 put Villegas at about $700,000 on hand, roughly a third of Valadao's cash, entering the final two weeks. **Outside money.** Each side had booked more than $16 million in ads through Election Day, according to AdImpact data reported by KFF Health News. Independent expenditures filed with the FEC through October 22 include: | Committee | Direction | Amount | Filing | |---|---|---|---| | [[Congressional Leadership Fund]] | against Villegas | $895,297 | [[CLF 18.7M House IE September 2026]] | | Congressional Leadership Fund | against Villegas | $954,990 | [[CLF 24.5M House IE October 2026]] | | Congressional Leadership Fund | against Villegas | $1,325,152 | [[CLF 32.8M House IE October 2026]] | | Congressional Leadership Fund | against Villegas | $1,378,774 | [[CLF 35.1M House Map IE October 2026]] | | Congressional Leadership Fund | against Villegas | $1,792,097 | [[CLF 37.2M House Map IE October 2026]] | | [[House Majority PAC]] | against Valadao | $912,720 | [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]] | | House Majority PAC | against Valadao | $994,560 | [[House Majority PAC 49.9M House Map IE October 2026]] | The four CLF notices filed through October 16 total about $4.6 million, but CLF's October 16 filing reported an aggregate of about $6.2 million against Villegas by that date, so the list is not complete. The two House Majority PAC notices total about $1.9 million against Valadao. ## What to watch - **The count.** California counts mail ballots for days after Election Day; a close race here may not be called on election night. - **Fresno County.** The territory Prop 50 added is where the new lines changed the math. - **Latino turnout.** The AP has framed the race as a test of whether Latino voters who moved toward Trump in 2024 move back. - **Medi-Cal.** Democrats have built their closing argument around Valadao's Medicaid vote. ## Connections - [[David Valadao]] · [[Randy Villegas]] - [[Proposition 50 (California)]] · [[Mid-Decade Redistricting]] · [[Redistricting Timeline 2025-2026]] - [[Big Beautiful Bill]] · [[Medicaid]] · [[Trump Second Impeachment]] · [[Jungle Primary]] - [[Congressional Leadership Fund]] · [[House Majority PAC]] - [[CA-13-2026]] · [[CA-21-2026]] · [[CA-41-2026]] - [[2026 House Races Hub]] · [[2026 Key State Races Hub]] · [[2026 Midterms Hub]]