# CA-21 — 2026 U.S. House Race (Tier 2) > [!info] Tier 2 light file > Likely-rated seat — condensed tracking page. Promote to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. Fresno-anchored Central Valley seat held by Democrat **Jim Costa**, a long-serving Blue Dog who won 2024 by ~5 points (52.6–47.4). California's Proposition 50 redraw made the district bluer on paper, yet Cook keeps it **Likely Democratic** rather than Solid — the watch-factor is the continued Latino rightward drift across the Valley, which has made Costa's margins thinner than the topline lean implies. **Ratings:** Cook **Likely Democratic**. ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[CA-40-2026]], [[CA-41-2026]], [[CA-45-2026]] — other Prop 50 seats