# CA-13 — 2026 U.S. House Race > [!success] Primary result — June 2, 2026 (top-two) > **Adam Gray (D)** and **Kevin Lincoln II (R)** advanced, with Gray around 42% and Lincoln around 28%. > November: **Gray vs. Lincoln** — a rematch of nothing, but a rerun of the closest House race in the country. Gray flipped this seat by **187 votes** in 2024. ## Snapshot Adam Gray (D, freshman) defends the Central Valley seat he flipped by **187 votes** in 2024 — the last House race called that cycle, and the closest in the country. 2024 opponent [[John Duarte]] (R) declined a rematch. The GOP field was led by Trump- and Speaker Johnson-endorsed **[[Kevin Lincoln II]]** (former Stockton mayor, Marine veteran), with tech entrepreneur **Vin Kruttiventi** and Ceres Mayor **Javier Lopez** also filed; Lincoln took second place in the June 2 top-two and is the Republican on the November ballot. Cook shifted the race from Lean D → **Toss Up** in January 2026; Sabato still rates Lean D. California's top-two primary was held June 2, 2026. Gray's ~$1.25M cash on hand and moderate-pragmatist brand (he was one of six House Democrats who crossed over on the government-shutdown vote) are his core assets against a district where Trump likely would have run 51-52% in a 2024 matchup. ## Incumbent **Adam Gray** (D). Freshman; sworn in January 2025. Former California State Assembly member; Central Valley (Merced County) roots. Moderate-pragmatist caucus positioning — one of six House Democrats who broke with the party on the late-2024/early-2025 government-shutdown deal (centered on SNAP/food-assistance funding). Legislative focus: agricultural water, food security, Central Valley economic development. See [[Adam Gray]]. ## Democratic primary Primary: **June 2, 2026** (top-two). Filing deadline passed March 6, 2026. - **Adam Gray (incumbent)** — party-endorsed by California Democratic Party (Feb 2026 consent calendar). ~$1.25M COH; total raised Jan 2025–Mar 2026: ~$3.28M across his principal committee and Adam Gray Victory Fund 2026. No credible primary threat. - **Daniel Garibay Rodriguez** — Livingston Community Health behavioral health manager; former Youth Leadership Institute program manager; UC Berkeley BS data science. Platform: working families, ag labor, immigration, Central Valley economic development. Minimal fundraising/media profile. ## Republican primary Top-two primary, same ballot as Democrats. All GOP candidates compete for one of two general-election slots. - **Kevin Lincoln II** — former Mayor of Stockton (2021–2024; defeated Michael Tubbs 2020). Marine Corps veteran (Marine One detail under George W. Bush); pastor. **Trump endorsement** ([[Truth Social]], December 2025) and **Speaker [[Mike Johnson]] endorsement**. Q1 2026: ~$1.26M raised (leads the GOP field). Establishment-Trump lane. - **Vin Kruttiventi** — Pleasanton-based tech entrepreneur; founder of consulting firm A5. Ran unsuccessfully in CA-14 vs. [[Eric Swalwell]] in 2024. CRA (California Republican Assembly) endorsement. Q1 2026: ~$876K raised. Messaging: education, inflation, border, small business. Secondary fundraising tier. - **Javier Lopez** — Mayor of Ceres (elected 2020, re-elected 2024); 20-year fire-suppression industry (MST Fire Consolidated). First R to announce. **Endorsed by John Duarte** (the 2024 incumbent Gray unseated). Lower fundraising footprint; no active campaign website located. - **Alberto Escobedo (No Party Preference)** — minimal data; verify active status. ## Ratings history | Outlet | Current | Prior | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | Cook Political Report | Lean D | Toss Up | Current per Cook's Sept 25, 2026 House ratings (date of move back to Lean D not re-established; Jan 15, 2026 it had moved Lean D → Toss Up) | | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D | — | Current | | Inside Elections | TBD | — | Check insideelections.com | | Cook PVI 2025 | R+2 | — | Near-parity district | **Context**: The 2024 presidential turnout topline would have had Trump at roughly 51–52% in the post-redistricting CA-13 footprint, despite a ~15-point Democratic voter-registration edge. Gray outran the presidential top-of-ticket by a wide margin — a pattern he must repeat in a lower-turnout midterm. ## Key dates - **March 6, 2026** — Filing deadline (passed) - **May 4, 2026** — Vote-by-mail ballots begin mailing; early voting opens - **June 2, 2026** — **Primary (top-two)** - **November 3, 2026** — General election ## Money **Q1 2026 FEC filings (filed April 15, 2026):** | Candidate | Raised (cycle) | Cash on hand | |---|---|---| | Adam Gray (D) | ~$3.28M (Jan 2025–Mar 2026) | ~$1.25M | | Kevin Lincoln II (R) | ~$1.26M | TBD | | Vin Kruttiventi (R) | ~$876K | TBD | | Javier Lopez (R) | Not confirmed | TBD | | Daniel Garibay Rodriguez (D) | Not confirmed | TBD | Gray's war chest is ~10x Kruttiventi's and ~6x Lincoln's. No measurable super-PAC activity in the district as of April 23, 2026 — outside spending likely accelerates post-primary once the R nominee is clear. ## Intel notes - **The UC Merced factor (2024 rerun risk)**: UC Merced precincts alone produced a 337-vote swing for Gray in 2024 — larger than his 187-vote margin. A midterm dropoff in student turnout is Gray's structural downside; the D field operation here is the single most important ground-game asset in the cycle for this district. - **Top-two primary mechanics**: With three funded Republicans and two Democrats on one ballot, a fragmented GOP vote combined with Gray's incumbency advantage makes a D-R general the most likely outcome — but a D-D general is mathematically possible only if the combined GOP vote exceeds Gray's alone, which isn't expected. - **Duarte's non-endorsement of Lincoln**: The 2024 incumbent endorsed Javier Lopez, not the Trump-backed Lincoln. This is a real intra-party signal — the CA-13 Republican establishment (such as it is) is not unified behind MAGA's choice. - **Moderate positioning / shutdown vote**: Gray's October/November 2024 vote to end the shutdown (breaking with the D caucus) is simultaneously his general-election asset (crossover credibility) and his primary vulnerability (progressive base softness). Garibay Rodriguez's platform reads as a progressive-lane hedge but has no traction. - **Lincoln's Stockton base**: Stockton sits partially in CA-13 post-Prop 50. Lincoln's mayoral tenure gives him a ~400K-population anchor with name recognition — but Stockton's ~15-point Democratic registration advantage means he has to persuade, not just mobilize. - **Polling gap**: Only district-wide poll located is Cyngal August 2025 (Gray 35% ballot test, 32% re-elect; Kruttiventi and a second R tied at 21%). No April 2026 polling surfaced. ## Outside-money log — FEC Form 24 notices ### Receipt date 2026-10-08 — [[House Majority PAC]] $198,757.57 **[[House Majority PAC]]** (FEC **C00495028**, filing as `HMP`) disclosed **$198,757.57** in this district on **1 Schedule E line** in a single Form 24 notice — **file 2018607**, `F24N`, received **2026-10-08T23:07:55**, expenditure date **2026-10-06**, election code `G2026`. | Direction | Candidate | Amount | Lines | |---|---|---|---| | oppose | Kevin Lincoln | **$198,757.57** | 1 | The notice as a whole is **$21,914,974.25 across 146 lines covering 44 candidate positions in 19 states**, **98.59% of it negative**, with **[[Waterfront Strategies]]** placing **72.0%** of the money. The full document is recorded at [[House Majority PAC 21.9M House IE October 2026]]. A **single line** of $198,757.57 through Trilogy Interactive LLC — the largest one-line position on the notice. The filing codes the target as `LINCOLN, KEVIN`, candidate ID `H4CA09093`, which encodes the district of his first filing rather than the one being contested; the attribution here follows this race page, which already names him as the Republican challenging [[Adam Gray]]. 🔴 **This notice was filed late on receipt date 2026-10-08.** It was filed 53 minutes before the receipt date closed. The document's aggregate column is not published here as a district total; the figure above is summed from the document's own lines. Source: `docquery.fec.gov/dcdev/posted/2018607.fec` ## Related KB entities - [[Adam Gray]] — incumbent - [[2026 Midterms Hub]] — hub - [[2026 House Races Hub]] — overview - TBD: [[Kevin Lincoln II]], [[Vin Kruttiventi]], [[Javier Lopez]], [[Daniel Garibay Rodriguez]] ## Content leads - **"The UC Merced test"** — student-turnout mechanics in midterm cycles using CA-13 as a case study - **"How Adam Gray survives"** — the six Democrats who broke on the shutdown vote; Gray's 2026 race as stress test for the moderate-pragmatist brand - **"Trump vs. Duarte"** — the intra-R split over Lincoln vs. Lopez as a window on MAGA's grip on California's Republican infrastructure ## Sources - [Ballotpedia — CA-13 election, 2026](https://ballotpedia.org/California's_13th_Congressional_District_election,_2026) - [Cook Political Report — CA-13 2026](https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/481881) - [Cook PVI 2025](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2025-partisan-voting-index/district-map-and-list) - [Sabato's Crystal Ball — 2026 House](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-house/) - [FEC — CA-13 2026 candidates](https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/CA/13/2026/) - [FEC — Adam Gray (H2CA13115)](https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2CA13115/) - [California SOS — June 2, 2026 certified candidate list](https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2026-primary/cert-list-candidates.pdf) - [Hanford Sentinel — CA-13 primary guide](https://hanfordsentinel.com/news/state-and-regional/your-guide-to-california-s-13th-congressional-district-primary-race/article_2d4b6091-4d8f-4158-82b8-58f3691fe727.html) - [Turlock Journal — Gray unseats Duarte](https://www.turlockjournal.com/news/government/gray-unseats-incumbent-duarte-in-ca-13-race/) - [KVPR — How Adam Gray won](https://www.kvpr.org/government-politics/2024-12-05/how-democrat-adam-gray-won-his-race-the-last-to-be-called-for-the-u-s-house) - [GV Wire — UC Merced students + CA-13 outcome](https://gvwire.com/2024/12/10/did-uc-merced-students-tip-the-us-house-election-for-democrat-adam-gray/) - [Yahoo News — Lincoln Trump/Johnson endorsements](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/central-valley-republican-nabs-endorsements-000337327.html) - [ABC News — the six Democrats who broke on shutdown](https://abcnews.com/Politics/6-house-democrats-broke-party-end-shutdown/story?id=127486831) - [Ceres Courier — Lopez challenges Gray](https://www.cerescourier.com/news/local/javier-lopez-for-congress-duarte-pledges-support/)