# AZ-02 — 2026 U.S. House Race (Tier 2) > [!info] Tier 2 light file > Likely-rated seat — condensed tracking page. Promote to a full Tier 1 dossier if a forecaster moves it to Toss Up / Lean. Rural/tribal northern Arizona seat held by hardline Republican **Eli Crane** (House Freedom Caucus), who won 2024 by ~9 points. **Inside Elections flagged it a "sleeper race"** on a Crane–Jonathan Nez rematch poll — Nez (former Navajo Nation president) is the strongest Democrat to run here — so watch for a possible rating shift, though Cook holds it at **Likely Republican**. **Ratings:** Cook **Likely Republican**; Inside Elections "sleeper" flag (Crane vs. Nez). ## Related - [[2026 House Races Hub]] - [[House Freedom Caucus]]